James Johnson

In the last week, I’ve been crisscrossing the United States, meeting with politicians and their advisers ahead of this year’s congressional elections. Almost everyone has asked me about the ongoing Boris Johnson saga. Their most common refrain is surprise: how can the simple act of attending a party prompt a prime minister’s ever-more-likely political demise? In a country where every scandal bounced off Donald Trump, it is hard for Americans to imagine a few sausage rolls and glasses of warm wine in Downing Street causing so many to turn on the Prime Minister. In America, loyalty to Trump persists. More than 70 per cent of Republicans continue to back him, and four in ten doubt whether Joe Biden was legitimately elected.

A quick read of the polls, and you would be forgiven for thinking we are a nation of lockdown-lovers, clamouring for stricter measures, eager to obey and accept any and all restrictions given to us. An Ipsos-MORI poll over the weekend showed 45 per cent of the public think current measures are not strict enough, three times the amount who said they go too far. YouGov has shown majority support for a ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown. And a survey by J.L. Partners found that, although only one in four thought the wider public would follow a potential ban on household mixing, three in four said they personally would. Focus groups — moderated conversations between a group of 8 to 10 people — often reinforce the polls.

Much has been said about the prospect of no deal over the past few days – the economics, arguments over sovereignty, the views of Conservative MPs, possible long-term gain, and the views of the voters. All will be important to the government’s final decision. Looking only at the voters, the established wisdom seems to be that a no deal course gives Boris his moment of facing down the EU, and that the former ‘Red Wall’ would welcome such a move. This, I think, is an incorrect assumption. Twelve months ago, no deal may well have been welcomed by a sizeable proportion of voters. Brexit was the only show in town. The Conservatives held a towering thirty-point lead on the issue over Jeremy Corbyn.

Once again, question marks surround Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. This is not new. While I was at 10 Downing Street, with the small but significant possibility of a sudden Corbyn departure, we spent some time exploring the electoral impact of who might come next. To work out who might put up the best fight and how best to counter them, I discussed potential candidates in focus groups, played videos to voters, and polled frontbenchers’ perceived attributes. The most consistently effective potential leader? Shadow chancellor, John McDonnell.  This may seem surprising – and as a Conservative it was a painful discovery. But he ‘focus grouped’ remarkably well.