James Heale

Liz Truss is in Taiwan this week, urging the West to take a stronger stance against China. Her message is clear: Europe's future is 'inextricably linked' to that of the island, you can't trust Beijing to follow the rules and Britain and its allies must now take action. Citing Chinese naval expansion, military build-up, economic decoupling and diplomatic initiatives, Truss warned that 'There are those who say they don’t want another Cold War. But this is not a choice we are in a position to make... they have already made a choice about their strategy. The only choice we have is whether we appease and accommodate – or we take action to prevent conflict.' Her solution?

Insurrection was in the air in Bournemouth this weekend as MPs and activists descended on the seaside town for a Tory grassroots jamboree. ‘Take control’ was the aim of the Conservative Democratic Organisation’s inaugural meeet, with 250-odd diehards defying the ‘communist barricades’ of the rail strikes to pitch up at the Bournemouth International Conference. The venue was the scene of Margaret Thatcher’s final conference and the long shadow of the Iron Lady looms large over her greying party today. Most attendees were middle-aged with fond memories of the Thatcherite heyday: of party conferences by the seaside, Mrs T in her pomp, three election triumphs and nights out celebrating in Blackpool and Brighton.

The local elections last week proved to be a disappointing night for Reform UK. Prior to polling day, its leader Richard Tice had talked up the 'huge appetite' among voters for Reform but the party averaged a mere six per cent of the vote in the wards where it stood. It won just half a dozen seats on on Derby City Council out of 471 hand-picked seats. Ukip, its effective forerunner, lost all its remaining councillors, going from almost 500 in 2016 to zero. Tice's response was to argue that 'Rome wasn't built in a day' and to focus instead on the next electoral test: the London mayoralty. Petrolhead Howard Cox, the founder of the Fair Fuel UK campaign, is running as Reform's candidate in the capital.

With gains of 643 councillors and 22 authorities, Labour clearly had a good result in Thursday's local elections. Yet with the BBC and Sky both publishing vote share projections which show the party falling short of an overall majority – winning just shy of 300 seats rather than the necessary 326 – the spectre of a hung parliament looms large over British politics once more. It was that subject which dominated Sir Keir Starmer's broadcast round this afternoon. The Labour leader refused seven times in an interview with Sky to rule out a deal with the Liberal Democrats if his party found themselves short of a majority, insisting that he is 'not answering hypotheticals.

Results are still coming in fast but one of the big stories of this local election night has been the Tories' southern discomfort. Onetime safe seats in the once-impregnable 'Blue Wall' have fallen overnight to the Liberal Democrats and to a lesser extent, the Greens and Labour too. The leaders of Windsor and Mid Suffolk council lost their seats to Lib Dem and Green challengers respectively; the regions where the Tory vote share has fallen most is by 5.7 per cent in the south west and 3.7 per cent in the south east. Conversely, CCHQ is keen to talk up the areas where the party performed best: this occurred in the north where the swing to Labour was 4 per cent, less than the national average.

It's local election week which means all parties are engaged in the great game of expectation management. Just over 8,000 seats in 230 unitary, metropolitan and district councils are up for grabs this time, with seven in ten voters in England able to cast their votes on Thursday. The last time these seats were contested was May 2019 – when Labour and the Tories both did poorly, polling just 28 per cent each. Jeremy Corbyn actually lost dozens of seats, becoming the least successful Opposition leader in 40 years. Theresa May was forced to quit three weeks later, having shed 1,300 councillors. This time, the picture looks similarly bleak for the Tories – but much better for Labour.

For the next ten days, the local elections remain the focus of Tories across the country. But already attention in CCHQ is turning towards the next big contest facing the Conservatives: the London mayoralty in May 2024. The London party board met on Monday to fast-track the candidate selection process, with formal applications now expected to open in the next fortnight. Party members based in the capital will get to choose from a shortlist of candidates after a series of hustings over the summer, with roughly half the party’s overall membership eligible to vote. A final candidate is expected to be chosen by late July, well before the party conference season to give the Conservative nominee ten months to campaign and raise their profile. So, who will it be?