James Forsyth

James Forsyth

James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.

Cui bono from the latest PR Week leak?

The latest PR Week scoop about what is going on in Downing Street has revived my suspicions about who is doing the leaking. The story says that Gordon Brown is obsessed with Andy Coulson, the former News of the World editor who is now the Tory’s chief spinner, and blames him for his current troubles. Now, the first person to come out of this story looking bad is the Prime Minister; it seems rather unseemly—and a little bit pathetic—for Brown to be spending his time worrying about the opposition’s spin doctor. But equally, it reflects badly on Stephen Carter and the people that he has hired as they were meant to do for Brown what Coulson had done for Cameron.

A nuclear Syria?

Perhaps, the oddest event of 2007 was the non-reaction to Israel’s strike on Syria. One would have thought that Israel bombing a target deep inside Syria would have sparked off a major international incident. But it did not. As The Spectator reported at the time the Israelis, the Syrians and the Americans all wanted to draw a veil over the affair. Finally, though, the Bush administration has released some details about what happened. It seems that what the Israelis hit was a nuclear reactor that had been constructed with North Korean help—you can see the declassified evidence for this claim here.

Reshuffle rumours

If Labour does as badly as the polls suggest it will on May 1st, one of the few options left to Gordon Brown will be to reshuffle his cabinet. Today’s Mirror predicts that this will see Alan Johnson become the government front man and chief whip while Hoon moves to BER and John Hutton to another big cabinet job. (There was talk recently that Hutton might go to defence.)  In truth, this is hardly a dramatic reshuffle—the holders of the four great offices of state would remain the same—and it seems aimed at remedying the fact that Alan Johnson didn’t win the deputy leadership more than anything else.

Rebellion is in the air

As ever, Martin Bright’s column in the New Statesman is well worth reading. Here’s the key paragraph: “Brown and his poll-obsessed allies may find some comfort in the latest figures, but there is rebellion in the air. It is important to remember that he does not have the authority of an electoral mandate to face down backbenchers who defy him. His authority is based largely on economic competence and a reputation for knowing how to win elections, and on both counts it has been seeping away.”I’d also add that Brown and his allies have no moral authority when they demand that the party rallies behind its leader. Add all this together and things could get very interesting if Labour loses London and does badly on May 1st.

Three men stabbed outside Jacqui Smith’s kebab shop

During the kerfuffle after the Jacqui Smith told The Sunday Times that she wouldn’t feel safe walking the streets of London her aides made great play of the fact that she had recently gone to get a kebab in Peckham albeit with security detail in tow. Now, Boulton and Co are reporting that three men were stabbed on the street outside the kebab shop last night.

The Powell doctrine

Jonathan Powell’s essay on the Northern Ireland peace process in the May Prospect sets out his position on talking to terrorists with complete clarity: “To argue that al Qaeda and the Taleban are different and that therefore you can’t talk to them is nonsense. Of course they are different, but terrorists are terrorists. What they do is evil, regardless of the cause. But you need to find a way to deal with them.”  To be fair to Powell, he prefaces this by saying that you should not concede to terrorists’ demands in response to violence or the threat of violence.

Obama needs to knock Hillary out — and quick

Hillary Clinton did not have to wait until 3 a.m. for the call telling her that she had won the Pennsylvania primary. Within an hour of the polls closing, the news networks had declared her the winner and by the end of the night she had secured a double-digit lead, handily beating the spread set for her by the media. Pennsylvania was always going to be Hillary’s kind of state; its demographics play to her strengths. There are a smaller percentage of the groups with whom Barack Obama is strongest — blacks and college graduates — and an above average number of over 65s, with whom Clinton generally does well. On top of that, the median household income is only a little more than $46,000 a year, making the state receptive to Clinton’s economic message.

Should the flag of St George fly over Downing Street?

I must admit to mixed feelings at the news that Number Ten will fly the flag of St George tomorrow. On the one hand, it’ll be an impressive sight and compared to the dog’s dinner of devolution is hardly likely to tear at the constitutional fabric. On the other, Downing Street is the home of the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and so the only flag that should fly over it is the Union flag.

The Sun shines on Boris and Paddick says he couldn’t work for Ken

This morning, The Sun offers an enthusiastic endorsement of Boris Johnson proclaiming that he ‘has the energy and the imagination to give this great city what it needs.’ Meanwhile, in an interview with The Times Brian Paddick is scathing about Ken Livingstone declaring “I just don’t trust Ken Livingstone”. Paddick goes onto say, “The thought of having him as my boss sends shivers down my spine.

Blair’s prescience

There’s a certain amount of Blair nostalgia in the Labour party at the moment as Gordon Brown struggles at Number Ten. That feeling is only going to be heightened by Rachel Sylvester’s column in the Telegraph this morning which contains this great bit of reporting:  “When [Blair] heard his anointed successor announcing with a dramatic flourish at the end of his speech a cut in the basic rate of income tax (a cut which was to be paid for by the abolition of the 10p rate that had been slipped out earlier) his grin froze in horror. He returned to Downing Street, complaining that the Budget was a disaster that "played into all the worst perceptions of Gordon".

Kate Hoey’s explanation is, well, whooey

Rosa Prince, who is owning this whole (non) endorsement story, has spoken to Kate Hoey about what happened and it seems she genuinely is sick. But the rest of Hoey’s explanation is hard to credit: "Boris told me last week he was visiting the ballet school - it's a great project so I said I would try to go along, like I would for any politician who wished to see a project in my constituency. "It never occurred to me people would consider it an endorsement. "It really p***es me off that I am being asked if I am staying on as a Labour MP - it's stupid, stupid, stupid." Now, come on Kate!

The Brownites don’t have the moral authority to talk about party loyalty

Labour are going through a wobble at the moment—which might turn into a collapse on May 1st—and the leadership desperately needs the party to close ranks and MPs to stop making critical statements, on or off record, that fan the flames of the whole government in meltdown story. But here’s the rub: having spent ten years undermining Tony Blair whenever it suited them, the Brownites don’t have the standing to call for party loyalty.

China is gaming the Olympic system

The Washington Post has an important story this morning about how China is failing to live up to the promises it made on press freedom when it was awarded the Olympic games. “Wang Wei, executive vice president of the Beijing Olympic Organizing Committee, told reporters in 2001 that the news media would have "complete freedom to report on anything when they come to China."  Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, last year signed temporary regulations to allow foreign journalists to travel domestically without advance permission until the Games are over. Reporters would still need permits to travel to Tibet, officials said, although that was not specifically mentioned in the regulations.

Trail mix

Over on Americano, I’ve just posted some thoughts on when Hillary might decide to drop out and how the Obama campaign practises the ‘old politics’ even while denouncing it. There’s also reaction to Obama saying that McCain would be a better president than Bush.

What do you have to say to get sacked by Gordon Brown?

One of the more remarkable things about the row over the abolition of the 10p tax rate is the level of insubordination that the Prime Minister is letting Parliamentary Private Secretaries get away with. Just look at this string of quotes from The Sunday Times:  "Derek Wyatt, a junior aide to Margaret Hodge, a culture minister, said: “I’ve had virulent e-mails from my constituents saying they feel betrayed and deserted. They say they will never vote for Labour again. I have thought about resigning, yes. The government has time yet, so it’s too early to say. But I’ve taken soundings from my local party and yes, many of us do feel this is a betrayal of our core beliefs.” ... Wyatt, the MP for Sittingbourne and Sheppey, said: “That is serious.

Brown doesn’t believe in choice, at least when it comes to coffee

“When Gordon Brown used to hold meetings at the Treasury, coffee would be served with the milk already added. I always thought that summed up his style. Such was his eagerness to get on to business that he had no time for the 20 seconds it would take to pass round the jug and the biscuits, a ritual that broke the ice across the rest of Whitehall.” This is how Tom Clark, a former special adviser who is now a leader writer at The Guardian, starts his superb piece on Gordon Brown. The whole thing is well worth reading—it is not a screed but a measured appraisal of Brown’s strengths and weaknesses.

Putin’s private side

The story of Vladimir Putin and Alina Kabayeva, the 24 year old gymnast turned MP, is bizarre. On Thursday, the newspaper Moskovsky Korrespondent alleged that Putin was to leave his wife, who he has been married to since before Miss Kbayeva was born, to marry the gymnast. On Friday, Putin denied the story, the editor of the newspaper resigned and the owner issued a  retraction and insisted that he had had no knowledge of the story before publication. By Friday night, publication of the Moskovsky Korrespondent had been suspended.  But the paper’s staff stand by the story while Putin’s denial includes this odd aside: “In other such publications other successful, beautiful young women and girls have been mentioned,” he said with a smile.

Get Carter | 19 April 2008

The tensions between Gordon Brown’s old team and his new recruits is bound to be exacerbated by the revelation in the Telegraph that Stephen Carter is earning £180,000 a year and his secretary as much as £70,000. This means that Carter is paid as much as the PM and his secretary is paid more than a backbench MP. Carter also receives free taxis to and from work. To some extent, people coming in from outside are always going to expect to be paid more than the public sector pay-scale and there is a certain truth to the adage that you get what you pay for. But Carter’s package does reveal quite how much of a hired hand he is especially when compared to those who have been with Brown on his long march to power.

Brown needs to talk to some new people

It wasn’t just the presidential candidates and the president that Gordon Brown met on the DC leg of his trip. Here, via Playbook, are the other folk that he saw: “British Prime Minister Gordon Brown met at the British Ambassador's residence in Washington yesterday with a collection of government, media and advocacy luminaries including David Lane, president and CEO of Bono's ONE Campaign; Rep. Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.); Ambassador Mark R. Dybul, the United States Global AIDS Coordinator; Stephen Colecchi of the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops; economist Gene Sperling; Dina Habib Powell, Director of Global Corporate Engagement at Goldman Sachs; and Microsoft Managing Director of Federal Government Affairs Jack Krumholtz.

What’s the actual cost of living?

Under the headline ‘The Real Rate of Inflation’, The Daily Mail launches its new Cost of Living Index. The idea is to show that the Consumer Price Index’s 2.5 percent rate does not reflect the actual cost of living. The Mail finds that the price of food is up 15.5 percent, with the price of tea bags up by two-thirds for some reason. People’s gas and electricity bills are up by 12.5 and 12.9 percent respectively. Indeed, the only things that seem to be going down in price are booze and broadband. For more on inflation see Brownie No.