James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.
There is a little glimmer of hope this afternoon for Gordon Brown: the Politics Home 5,000 Panel reports that Brown’s ratings are no longer falling. The bad news is that they have bottomed out with 77 percent of voters disapproving of the job Brown is doing. If the Prime Minister’s mood is improved by this
Over at Centre Right, Tim Montgomerie flags up a new poll that shows the No campaign leading in Ireland in advance of next week’s vote on the Lisbon Treaty. The No side, in a dramatic reversal, is now five points up over the Yes camp but with many voters still undecided. A defeat for the
Tony Blair’s return to the GMTV sofa and Parliament yesterday showed up Gordon Brown’s communications deficiencies. Blair spoke in fluent human, defused tensions with the odd joke and was relaxed in his command of the detail. In short, it was a reminder of why Blair was such a formidable politician and helped explain why Brown is struggling
A friend of Coffee House passes on an email from Progress which announces a series of seminars “which will ask whether progressives need to revisit their conception of the role of the state in the light of the political challenge presented by David Cameron’s espousal of a post-bureaucratic state.” It is interesting enough that a
Adam Boulton has a great little scoop over at his blog, one senior member of the cabinet has been telling colleagues that he has been over promoted but that he intends “to enjoy it while it lasts”. Now, it is a man which rules out Jacqui Smith, Harriet Harman, Yvette Cooper, Ruth Kelly and Hazel
Sam Coates points out over at Red Box that Gordon Brown boxed himself in on vehicle excise duty at PMQs yesterday by telling those questioning the move that: “Don’t you know these reforms are going to save 1.3 million tonnes of CO2 and increase the number of clean cars”. Sam thinks that Gordon let his
One can question the propriety of General Sir Richard Dannatt speaking out about serviceman’s pay in The Sun but it is hard to disagree with him. “You look to see how much a traffic warden is paid and compare that against what a private soldier gets paid. “If you compare a police constable on overtime,
“Senator Clinton will be hosting an event in Washington, DC to thank her supporters and express her support for Senator Obama and party unity. This event will be held on Saturday to accommodate more of Senator Clinton’s supporters who want to attend.” This terse statement from the Clinton campaign indicates that the Clintons have accepted
Over at Red Box, Sam Coates reports that Labour is already lowering expectations for its performance in Henley, briefing that it will lose its deposit. Now, I’d be tempted to dismiss this as just spin seeing as Labour got 14.7 percent at Henley in the general but Labour’s expectations management predictions have turned out to
Picking Hillary Clinton as his VP would be fatal to Obama’s chances. It is hard to imagine a move that could cause him more damage. First, it would make him look weak—as if Hillary had forced him into making a concession to her. Secondly, it would undercut his message that his candidacy represents change and
If John McCain or his supporters had any doubts about the challenges ahead, they should have been removed last night. Obama once more demonstrated that he can hit the rhetorical heights at will, turn out a crowd whenever he needs and pose as a unifying figure, hovering above normal politics even while taking partisan jabs
Apologies for the confusion folks, but William Hill has sent over the actual odds for ministers to lose their seat. (What we had before was rather mangled thanks to a misunderstanding between me and them). Here are the numbers and, again, apologies. To lose their seat: 2/7 Smith 13/2 Darling 8/1 Straw 10/1 Denham 12/1
Hillary Clinton might not have conceded last night but Barack Obama now has the delegates he needs to be the nominee. He declared himself the nominee last night despite Hillary Clinton’s refusal to drop out. His immediate challenge is to usher her off the stage and re-unite the party. He started that task with generous
NBC’s delegate count shows that following the flurry of super delegate declarations for him today, Obama is only 11 away from having an absolute majority of delegates. Considering that there are 31 up for grabs in Montana and South Dakota, Obama is pretty much certain to reach that mark before the end of the night. According to the
If you fancy a punt on various cabinet ministers losing their seats here are the odds from William Hill and, where relevant, the swing required for the Tories to take it: RUTH KELLY BOLTON WEST 86 (4.9%) 7/4 JOHN HUTTON BARROW AND FURNESS 115 (6.25%) 2/1 JACQUI SMITH
As the final votes are cast in the Democratic primaries, Americano reflects on when the race tipped in Barack Obama’s favour and looks at the proposed five-step plan for how Hillary can restore her reputation among Democratic activists. Plus, video of how this whole process has driven a Clinton campaign chair to drink.
Gordon Brown should be breathing a large sigh of relief over the fact that Jacqui Smith has apparently won over enough Labour backbenchers to stave off defeat. But it seems that Brown has reached that stage where all good news for him is qualified. Smith’s impressive performance has led to Nick Robinson tipping her as
The piece by Peter Clarke, the former head of the Met’s anti-terror command, arguing for 42 days detention in the Telegraph today is essential reading. As I said the other day, I’m still undecided on the issue but Clarke makes the most persuasive case for it I’ve seen. Here is Clarke’s crucial point: “When I
Gordon Brown timed the Crewe and Nantwich by-election so that MPs would be heading out for the recess as the result came in. With Labour MPs scattered to the four winds, leadership plotting failed to get off the ground. This and the Labour party seeming to row in behind the government on 42 days do
The Independent’s Andrew Grice reports that Jacqui Smith’s performance at the Parliamentary Labour Party meeting was well received. It appears that the rebellion is diminishing rather than meta-sizing. Smith was frank about the consequences of losing the vote next Wednesday: “We have gone a million miles. Meet us on the way. Make no mistake. Defeat
