James Forsyth

The new Guardian ICM poll has the Tory lead down to seven points and the party on 37 percent. Now, it should be stressed that the majority of this fieldwork was carried out before the Rawnsley revelations became public and so ithis poll does not factor in the public’s reaction to that. But this poll will heighten the sense of nervousness on the Tory side. Even before this poll came out, David Cameron had called a shadow Cabinet meeting for tomorrow which will be held at CCHQ and is scheduled to last for two hours.

The National Bullying Helpline has just put rocket boosters under the allegations about Gordon Brown’s behaviour with a statement saying that Downing Street staffers have contacted it with complaints about the Prime Minister’s behaviour. Here’s the most significant passage from it: “Over recent months we have had several inquiries from staff within Gordon Brown's office. "Some have downloaded information; some have actually called our helpline directly and I have spoken to staff in his office." I suspect this means that the story is now going to run and run. Certainly, every media organisation will now be trying to find those in Brown’s office who contacted the helpline.

While we all wait for the revelations from Andrew Rawnsley’s book, which is being serialised in The Observer, there are a few things worth noting from Douglas Alexander’s interview with The Guardian today. First of all, Labour thinks that the Tory strength in the marginals means that the Tories only need to be six points ahead nationally to win an overall majority. This is significant as it suggest that the parties are in rough agreement on how far ahead the Tories need to be to win; the Tories assumption is that a seven point lead in the popular vote will translate into a Commons majority. Second, it is interesting that Alexander directly credits the media with helping Labour turn this election from a referendum on it into a choice between them and the Tories.

When a denial elicits this headline: “No 10 denies naked Gordon Brown called aide C-word” What is in and not in Andrew Ranwsley’s new book, which The Observer starts serialising this Sunday, is the talk of Westminster. There’s much speculation about whether the stories that were in the Mail on Sunday a few weeks back—including the one referenced in the headline about Brown sitting on his bed in his underpants on a trip to New York and summoning his aides to berate them for the Obama snubs Brown stories that were appearing in the British press—are the book’s main revelations or not. The theory doing the rounds at the moment is that Team Brown actually wanted those details out there in an attempt to do a spoiler on the book.

The transparency agenda is one of the most exciting things about the Cameron project but it is an idea that is hard to explain. But David Cameron’s speech to TED last week—video above, is the best expression of it that we have had yet. When you think about the changes Cameron is proposing—publishing government spending and contracts online—you realise that these changes will never be reversed. Just imagine the fuss if a future government announced it was suddenly going to make all government contracts secret. These changes along with the other government data that Cameron is proposing to publish will also empower citizens against the state. People will be able to see whether their services represent value for money far more easily than they can at present.

The Tories are facing embarrassment tonight after a document they released claim that 54 percent of young women under 18 in poor areas get pregnant when the actual number is 5.4 percent. It is easy to see how a mistake like this is made but it is still damaging and made more so by the fact that it gives Labour the opportunity to claim, as they are doing tonight, that the mistake shows that the Tories have no idea how the country actually lives.