James Forsyth is former political editor of The Spectator.
If we needed a reminder not to get overly excited about small variations in the opinion polls, it comes today with two surveys from the same pollster taken at pretty much the same time which return slightly different results. The YouGov survey for today’s Telegraph has the Tories on 38, down two, Labour on 31,
James Forsyth reviews the week in politics When David Cameron and George Osborne move between their suite of offices at the eastern end of the parliamentary estate and the Commons chamber they do so with a pomp that would not embarrass a medieval monarch. A crowd of attendants accompanies them, constantly changing positions but never
The next set of GDP figures are going to play a key role in the election campaign. They are due out on April 22 with polling day expected to be a fortnight later. Brown desperately needs a good growth number so that he can try and make the case that his policies have steered Britain
Jacqui Smith has given a rather reflective interview to Andrew Neil, which you can see on the BBC News Channel this weekend, in which she concedes that she’s likely to lose her seat. But, to my mind, the most interesting thing about the interview is how frank she is about how Blair was bundled out
On Today this morning, Nick Robinson said that Tony Blair would point to improvements in infant mortality and the like. Today then cut back to the studio where a reporter analysed this claim. The reporter disputed the validity of this claim and said that sanctions had ‘skewed’ the numbers. But the sanctions were a consequence
The markets have traditionally not looked too carefully at sovereign debt. But that seems to be changing. At a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, people were asked to vote what was most likely to cause the next crisis. More than 50 percent of them, 50.7 to be precise, named sovereign debt far
News reaches me of a surprising meeting in the lobby of Portcullis House today, Goldie Hawn — of Private Benjamin fame — swept in to Westminster wearing big shades and more fur than a member of the Household Division. She was in the Commons to meet with Michael Gove’s chief of staff, Dominic Cummings. Gove’s
The prospects of a deal in Northern Ireland seem to be receding. If the talks and, therefore the executive, do collapse, it will show how foolish it was of Jonathan Powell to try for this peace of the extremes. Powell decided that rather than spending hours negotiating with the UUP and the SDLP, the quicker
The talks on devolving peace and justice in Northern Ireland are in trouble. The Prime Minister has left without a deal being signed, having been there far longer than he intended. But as the talks continue, it is worth remembering that that both DUP and Sinn Fein are benefitting from the focus on this issue.
If Tory policy in Northern Ireland was based around electoral advantage, as their critics have been insinuating these last few days, then they never would have attempted to get a new political force off the ground there. Rather, they would have waited for the election result and then, if necessary, made a deal with a
So Britain did grow in the fourth quarter of last year but only by 0.1 percent. Many on the Labour side had hoped that the moment that the country started growing again, Brown would be able to go on the offensive; arguing that his handling of the economy had steered Britain through the crisis. But
On the Today Programme this morning, Sarah Montague kept pressing Sammy Wilson of the DUP on whether his party would enter into an electoral alliance in certain seats with the new Conservative and Ulster Unionist grouping. Wilson suggested that the DUP would stand but would welcome it if other unionists stood aside. But that’s not
Labour’s tax on banks that pay bonuses has failed to change behaviour and so will raise significantly more money, roughly two and a half billion more, than the Treasury budgeted that it would. How Labour uses this extra revenue will tell us a lot about how Labour intend to campaign and the balance of power
There’s a quite astonishing quote from Harriet Harman in The Sunday Times today: “you can’t separate out good parenting skills from family income.” Now I doub’t anyone would disagree that it is easier to raise children if you do not have to worry about money, but the idea that how good a parent you are
One of the biggest mistakes David Cameron has made as leader of the opposition was the announcement at Tory party conference that Sir Richard Dannatt was to become a Tory peer and would likely serve in a Tory government. It devalued all of Dannatt’s previous criticisms of the government over its treatment of the army
When I was writing my column this week on the Tories’ education policy, I realised that there’s a new test for policy: will it be so successful that the devolved administrations end up adopting it. Michael Gove’s plan for a supply side revolution in education – allowing any group of people to step up schools—promises
James Forsyth reviews the week in Politics It is not often that David Cameron lavishes praise on a Labour achievement. But that’s exactly what he was doing on Monday morning at Walworth Academy as he lauded the school for having almost doubled the number of pupils getting good GCSE results. As one of Tony Blair’s
The Edlington case is shocking and depressing to think about. But I would urge you to watch Gavin Esler’s interview of Ed Balls on Newsnight where he challenged Balls over his reasons for not publishing the full case review. Newsnight, who were leaked a copy of the full case review in the Edlington case, pressed
The government broke off relations with the Muslim Council of Britain over Daoud Abdullah, its deputy secretary-general, signing the Istanbul declaration, which the government believed encouraged attacks on British forces if they attempted to enforce a weapons blockade on Gaza. Last week, the government retreated; inviting the MCB back in despite Daoud Abdullah’s signature remaining
Labour’s tax on banks that pay big bonuses was budgeted to yield £550 million. But because the tax has failed to change behaviour it is going to bring in far more than that, at least 2 billion according to recent reports. This raises the question of what will Labour do with the extra 1.5 billion?
