James Forsyth

The ever-pugnacious Ed Balls was on the Today Programme this morning denouncing Tony Blair for saying that the coalition was, broadly, right in its deficit reduction plans. As Balls warmed to his task, he started reeling off Blair’s failings—his advocacy of entry into the euro, his one-sided account of things in his autobiography and the like— and I wondered: if this is his opinion of the man he called Labour’s greatest ever-leader, what on earth does he think of the other men who have led the party?   But in all seriousness, the coalition needs to start hitting back at the ‘growth denier’ charge that Balls keeps hurling at them.

James Forsyth meets Ed, the ‘normal’ Miliband, who says that the conventional political wisdom about Middle England is all wrong When you walk into Ed Miliband’s office in the House of Commons, the first thing you’re struck by is that he has not had time to unpack since Labour lost power. It is bare except for a couple of generic-looking paintings. When I ask him what they are of, he stares at them quizzically for a second before an aide reminds him that they were left there by the previous occupant. But the second thing that hits you is that Ed is normal, surprisingly so. As we exchange pleasantries, he doesn’t engage in any of the psychological tricks so beloved of some politicians; there’s no attempt to establish alpha-male status.

Judging by today’s papers, the idea that David and Ed Miliband’s mother is voting for Diane Abbott has entered into the political consciousness. But it isn’t true. When Ed Miliband said that his mum wasn’t voting for him or David and was instead backing Abbott, he was joking. As he explained to me the other day: “For the record, my mother isn’t voting for Diane Abbott, that's another joke, an ill judged joke that I made.  I actually went on holiday, shut off my phone and a couple of days later I discovered that I’d spawned a whole series of stories saying the definitive view is that she is voting for Diane Abbott.  It was a light hearted remark.

The coalition has had a bad day today. It has been knocked all over the park following the IFS report that labeled the Budget regressive. Now, I’m sure the coalition will say that if it had to pick a day to take a hammering, one towards the end of August would be what they would have chosen. But I think there are five lessons that the coalition needs to learn from today if it is to navigate successfully through the political shoals of the next few months. 1). It needs a stronger narrative about what it is doing. Mark Hoban was woeful on the Today programme this morning. He had no come back to Justin Webb’s lines. The coalition needs to say that it is giving everyone a chance to get on, making working pay and restoring fiscal sanity. 2).

In the coalition, it is the rows within parties not between them that are most vicious. This is because in an internal party argument there is all sorts of emotional baggage involved. So it is two Tories, IDS and Osborne, who have provided the most spectacular row of the coalition so far. But it is worth noting that, as Tim said on Sunday, a truce has been reached between the two men and the contours of a deal agreed. It is also my understanding that both sides have put a stop to any briefing that could be considered as negative.   A deal on welfare reform looks more far more likely now than it did six weeks ago.

The extracts from Chris Mullin’s diaries that ran in the Mail on Sunday this weekend suggest that the second volume will be as good as the first. It contains things that you just couldn’t make up. Tom Watson, for example, told Mullin that he was pushed into rebellion by the knowledge that Cherie Blair had had the Prime Minster’s section of the nuclear bunker redecorated.   But, perhaps, the most telling  story is what happened when Gordon Brown went to the Chinese embassy to sign the book of condolence for victims of the earthquake there: “While Gordon and his party were inside, word reached them that David Cameron was waiting outside.

Nick Clegg has been taking advantage of his week in charge to do a series of high profile events. But at nearly every one — his speech in London, his town-halls in Newcastle and Bristol — he has encountered Lib Dems wanting to express their anger about the coalition and its policies. As I say in the Mail on Sunday, the worry for the Lib Dem leadership has to be that this is a preview of what they could face at conference. This danger has been compounded by the fact that Clegg will leave it early to attend the UN summit in New York, Cameron will be staying at home as he and Samantha’s baby is due then.

Nick Clegg’s fortnight in the sun continues with a big interview in today’s Telegraph. What struck me most were not his comments on a graduate tax (which David has blogged about) but those on AV. If the AV referendum is lost, then Clegg will have a very difficult time keeping his party united and in the coalition. But if Clegg makes clear how much AV means to his party, then the chances of it being defeated increases as Labour voters and those dissatisfied with the coalition see it as a chance to bring it down. (Remember we can expect most Tory voters to back first past the post, making the support of Labour voters crucial to the passage of AV).

What to make of the Charlie Kennedy to defect to Labour rumour? Well, judging from the people I have spoken to this evening, the rumour seems premature. There’s no sense that a defection is imminent and a Lib Dem spokesman was emphatic in his denial of the story earlier. But it does seem that Kennedy has spoken with Labour figures about how unhappy he is with the coalition. These conversations, though, appear to have been more of the crying on the shoulder variety than any kind of formal defection talks. A former leader leaving the party would obviously be a significant blow to the Liberal Democrats.

Nick Clegg’s few days in charge have summed up his current political problem. If he says he agrees with what the government is doing, the media ask what’s the point of the Lib Dems? That’s what happened to him on the Today Programme this morning. But if he talks about where he disagrees with the coalition programme as he did on Monday when discussing Trident, he’s lambasted for exacerbating coalition tensions.   It is all far cry from the early days of the coalition when there was some concern in Conservative circles that Clegg was a thinner, better version of David Cameron.