James Forsyth

Nick Boles proposed electoral pact (£) between the coalition partners would have a clear benefit for the Conservatives, it would make a deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats after the next election impossible. That is quite a prize for the Conservatives. It would mean that David Cameron would continue as PM as long as the two parties between them held a majority of seats in the Commons. It is less clear what the Liberal Democrats would gain from it. Yes, it would help more of their MPs survive, but it would tie their hands ahead of another hung parliament and massively reduce their ability to claim that they are a distinct political party rather than just an adjunct to the Conservatives.

The Press Association is reporting that a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has Ed Miliband leading his brother 51 49 among Labour members and trade unionist once second preferences have been taken into account. Now given David Miliband’s advantage among MP and MEPs, the other part of Labour’s electoral-college, the elder Miliband should still have enough to get over the line. (The Press Association’s headline—‘Poll points to Ed Miliband victory’—strikes me as a bit off for this reason). But this poll will give the Ed Miliband camp a massive boost going into the final full week of campaigning. One of the things Ed needed was a sense that he really could win and this poll helps him get that.

Boris’s decision to announce today that he is to run again for Mayor of London is intriguing. Many in government circles expected Boris to wait until London’s settlement in the CSR had been finalised before announcing, his candidacy was the best card he had in the negotiation. So his declaration has sparked speculation that Boris and George Osborne have come to a deal. If Boris wins, and he starts as favourite, then what he does in his second term will be fascinating and the best guide to his future plans. If we see Boris becoming an increasingly national figure and championing causes dear to the right—free enterprise, low taxes and Euro-scepticism — it will suggest that he is at some danger of being decapitated by a Frisbee.

The 8.10 Today programme slot this morning went to Nick Clegg. The programme wanted to discuss with the deputy PM the BBC’s finding that those areas most dependent on the state would be hit hardest by the coming cuts, for some reason this statement of the obvious is regarded as news. But John Humphrys, in his haste to interrupt the deputy PM, made some statements deserving of further scrutiny.   First, Humphrys suggested that the cuts will take place before Christmas. They won’t. Unlike the cuts announced in the immediate aftermath of the election, these are not in-year cuts.   Next, Humphrys claimed that the economy is at ‘stall-speed.’ But growth in the second quarter was 1.

Keith Vaz’s sleight of hand to get Yates of the Yard before his committee today and to confirm that his officers will soon be talking to Andy Coulson is yet another reminder that Labour today has a lot more fight in it than the Tories did in 1997. Yates’ comments don’t come as a surprise; the government was making clear yesterday that Coulson was happy to talk to the cops. But they have pushed the story back up the news agenda — the 24 hour news channels are covering it live — just when it finally appeared to be dying down: mission accomplished for Vaz and Labour.

Theresa May channeled Chris Tavaré today, every question on this phone tapping scandal was met with a solid defensive answer. She was helped by the number of Labour MPs who overreached — one compared it to Watergate while Dennis Skinner, who is nowhere near the Commons performer he once was, produced an ill-judged demand that Cameron come to the Commons and sack Coulson. Those MPs who were most effective were the ones who kept their cool. The personal testimony of Chris Bryant was particularly powerful.   Perhaps, the most noteworthy element of the proceedings was how a particularly glum looking Ming Campbell and Simon Hughes kept whispering to each other with concerned expressions on their faces. Neither man appeared to be happy with May’s answers.

David Miliband’s performance in Sky News’ Labour leadership hustings will have calmed the nerved of his supporters. In the run-off between him and his brother, David came out on top. His answers were generally sharper and he managed to parry away Ed’s criticisms on tuition fees and foreign policy. (In a pointed remark, Ed said that the Labour government’s foreign policy had been based on ‘old ideas’.) Indeed, Ed Miliband only seemed to get going in his closing statement which was pitch-perfect David’s best moment came when the contenders were asked to pick between Blair and Brown. Ed Balls opted for Brown, Diane Abbott said that Brown ‘was the better man’ and then it was the elder Miliband’s turn.

With ballot papers out, the Labour leadership contest is entering its most critical phase. It is striking that David Miliband has taken this moment to co-author an essay with his most significant left-wing supporter, Jon Cruddas. Indeed, a casual observer looking at the piece would assume that the two men were running on a joint ticket. The language in the article is very Cruddas, it talks of a ‘new covenant’ (one of Cruddas’ favourite phrases) with Britain. The intellectual heart of the piece is an attempt to break away from the left right arguments within the party by proclaiming that Labour in government was “too hands-off with the market and too hands-on with the state.