James Forsyth

Now, there’s a Tory rebel too. David Davis has told the BBC that he’ll be voting against the coalition at the end of Thursday’s fees debate. Those Lib Dems who do vote for tuition fees can now expect to be mocked as being to the right of David Davis. So far, there’s no sign of other Tories following DD’s lead. One friend of his fears that his decision to rebel against the government on this issue makes him look like a serial rebel and will undermine the effectiveness of his interventions on the constitutional and civil liberties issues he cares so deeply about it. But I expect DD’s stance will strike a chord with more people than the Tory leadership expect.

The rapidly increasing likelihood that the Lib Dem payroll vote will vote to increase the amount that universities can charge in fees to £9,000 is a reminder of how different the next election is going to be. The Lib Dems will not be able to stuff their manifesto with eye-catching but unrealistic commitments designed to grab votes from this or that interest group. The experience of coalition means that their policy positions will receive far more scrutiny than usual and have to be defensible. Already, those around Clegg talk of a very different kind of Lib Dem manifesto at the next election. They drop heavy hints that the empty gestures—like ruling out the use of military force against Iran in any circumstances—will go.

There he goes again. Another Alan Johnson interview, another reiteration of his differences of opinion with his leader and another Tory press release claiming Ed Miliband’s writ doesn’t even run in his own shadow Cabinet. This time, Johnson has told Mary Riddell, “Well, I don’t think [a graduate tax] could [work]. Frankly, there’s a difference of view.” If this was not enough he continued to say, “I feel it’s going to be very difficult to make a graduate tax a workable proposition.” This must be so frustrating for Ed Miliband. First, it takes some of the heat off the Lib Dems who are all over the place this weekend on the whole university funding question.

‘We only got two votes, we only got two votes.’ That England’s World Cup bid only mustered two votes is a national embarrassment. All the briefing had suggested that we were in a very competitive position; The Times was predicting that we could win as many as 15 votes. This failure has led to a rapid change of tune from Cameron loyalist MPs. One told me just now that ‘you know how awful the whole process is you saw Panorama.’ But just yesterday, Cameron was proudly holding up the Sun’s BBC-bashing front page (have a look at the spread on pages 4 and 5 of the paper). In truth, we should never have got ourselves involved in this horribly mucky process. Instead, we should have demanded that the FIFA stables be thoroughly cleaned out.

Asking PFI contractors to voluntarily give back some of the money that they are due from the government might seem like rather a hopeless task. But the PFI-Rebate campaign launched today by Jesse Norman, one of the smartest of the new intake of Tory MPs, has a better chance of success than appears at first blush. Norman is pushing for the contractors to take a 0.5 percent cut which they might well decide is worthwhile to deal with all the negative publicity that further scrutiny of PFI would bring. If these contractors want to take the PFI model global, then they can’t really afford the kind of coverage that a prolonged campaign would bring.

There have been a huge amount of police out in Westminster today. After being caught off-guard by the student demo a few weeks back, the cops are now leaving nothing to chance.   But if the police have now got their act together, the same cannot be said of the Liberal Democrats. They are currently considering whipping their MPs to abstain on tuition fees despite the fact that the government’s policy is one that has been crafted by a Lib Dem Secretary of State, Vince Cable, and a Tory Minister of State, David Willetts.   If the Lib Dems were to abstain, it would play to the worst stereotypes of the party. They would be derided as ditherers of the first degree, incapable of taking a tough decision.

George Osborne’s autumn statement previewed what I suspect will be the coalition, or at least the Conservatives, re-election message. ‘This government has taken Britain out of the financial danger zone and set our economy on the path to recovery.’   Today’s OBR forecast was a boon for the Chancellor. It suggests that there won’t be a double-dip recession, as his critics suggested there would be. The improved economic numbers allowed him to come to the House and declare that the deficit reduction ‘plan is working’, and that already the coalition has saved the country £19 billion in debt interest. Alan Johnson was his usual self in response.

The publication of a quarter of a million US diplomatic cables is going to blow the lid on a lot of the world’s diplomatic secrets. So we learn that the Saudis and other Sunni Arab states are urging the US to stop Shi’ite Iran’s nuclear programme by any means necessary. The New York Times’ points out that none of the cables are labeled ‘top secret’, so we are unlikely to find out the most sensitive secrets of American diplomacy. Instead, what we are getting is public confirmation of things we have long suspected. Emblematic of what are learning is confirmation that the Yemenis talked with the Americans about how to deny that they knew about the strikes that were being carried out on their soil.