James Forsyth

In the last few months, there’s been a distinct change in the attitude of the Tories at the heart of government. They are now far more cognisant of just how difficult it is to drive change through the government machine. It is no longer just Steve Hilton and Michael Gove complaining about this, but Osborne and Cameron too. The Chancellor’s particular frustration at the moment is over the pace of planning reform. Osborne and his brains trust believe that simplifying the planning rules is one of the things that they could do to both give the economy a short term stimulus, by encouraging more construction, and improve its long term prospects. But the coalition is making slower progress on the matter than Osborne would like.

The most important political changes are those that will not be reversed. I think that both directly elected mayors and police commissioners fit this mould. I can’t imagine voters choosing to cede the ability to hold power to account that these positions will give them. Tellingly, more people in London now favour independence for the capital than want to scrap the office of mayor. Police commissioners and mayors also provide the Conservatives with a massive opportunity to rebuild the party in urban Britain, as I argue in my column this week. The Conservatives have little chance of gaining overall control of the council in, say, Leeds. But they could win a mayoral poll there.

Nick Clegg’s assertive performance at PMQs today was a demonstration of the fact that he now feels more confident than he has since his failure in the AV referendum. The deputy Prime Minister doesn’t crouch defensively at the despatch box anymore, and he brushed off some rather good one-liners from Harriet Harman. She joked that the only thing the deputy Prime Minister stands up for these days is the PM entering the room.   Clegg and his team feel that things are looking up for them, that they are setting the agenda. Even the Lib Dem’s lowly poll rating isn’t dampening their mood.   So, what does this change mean for the coalition? Senior Tories claim to be delighted that Clegg is happier, claiming it makes him easier to deal with.

David Cameron’s plane has just landed in Washington. The next few days should provide him with a set of images that will portray him as a significant figure on the global stage. The Obama administration is giving Cameron the full works: a huge event on the White House lawn and the kind of banquet that is normally reserved for heads of state. This is an arrangement that benefits both sides. The Obama re-election campaign wants to foster the sense that the President is friends with a Conservative British Prime Minister given that their Republican opponent in the fall will accuse him of being a left-wing radical. I suspect, though, that Downing Street will be rather worried that the arrests of Charlie and Rebekah Brooks could overshadow the opening day of the visit.

The combination of the European Court of Human Rights and the European Convention on Human Rights is, I predict, going to give David Cameron an increasing number of headaches in the coming months. As Fraser wrote yesterday, Michael Pinto-Duschinsky’s principled resignation from the coalition’s Commission on the British Bill of Rights has revealed that this body was never really serious about dealing with the problem. The exposure of this Commission as merely a holding device will add to the pressure on the Prime Minister to clarify what he actually intends to do about the problem.

Nick Clegg’s speech today was a preview of what the Liberal Democrat argument will be in 2015: coalitions work and we’re the ‘one nation’ party who will ensure that the government is fiscally credible but fair. This strategy is the leadership’s best hope for the next election. But it is reliant on coalition government being seen to work, something which isn’t going to be the case if the coalition partners continue to wash their dirty linen in public. In terms of the coalition, there were a few interesting lines in the speech. Clegg said that the Budget ‘must offer concrete help to hard-pressed, hard-working families: a big increase in the income tax threshold, further and faster towards £10,000.

Ever since Chris Huhne’s departure from government, Vince Cable has become a more and more aggressive coalition figure. His deliberately provocative interview with The Guardian in which this Keynesian, corporatist lambasts the idea that deregulation is key to growth as "ridiculous and bizarre" has drawn a heated Tory reaction. One source told me earlier that “BIS [Cable’s department] imposes ten stupid expensive things on business for every one they’re forced to drop. BIS is mired in useless committees that churn out red tape because Vince loves the EU and hasn’t a clue about small business.’ Just how irritated some Tory Cabinet Ministers are with Cable spilled out into the open last night on Any Questions.

Nick Clegg pushed his members to ‘stop lamenting what might have been and start celebrating what is’ in his rally speech to the Liberal Democrat spring conference. He told them ‘now is the time to move on, to stop justifying being in government and start advertising being in government’. The debate over the Health Bill, though, threatens to dominate the conference. Clegg in his speech went out of his way to pay tribute to Shirley Williams, who is now on the leadership’s side on this issue, lauding the ‘outstanding work Shirley is doing in the House of Lords to protect our NHS’.  This was met with warm applause. But it was not rapturous, suggesting that the conference remains divided on the issue.

This weekend’s Lib Dem spring conference is the next big political hurdle for the Health Bill. If the conference votes against the Bill, then it will create a huge political headache for the government and be a severe embarrassment to Nick Clegg. Talking to Liberal Democrats ahead of the vote on Sunday morning, I’ve been struck by how worried some Clegg supporters are that the vote might be lost. Now, this could well be expectations management. But there are more than a thousand Lib Dem members who have signed the Lib Dem petition against the bill. On balance, I think it is more likely than not that the leadership escapes a defeat.

The debate on the 50p tax rate is moving fast. I was told by one Downing Street source today that ‘it is now more likely than not that it goes in the Budget.’ Now, obviously, there is a big caveat here. The Budget is not yet agreed: this is all subject to change. But I understand that the Chancellor is pushing hard to at least set out the roadmap to its abolition on the 21st March. I also hear that the Prime Minister is nervous about quite how determined Osborne is to do this. Cameron’s worry is that a Budget that tackles the 50p rate will be remembered solely for that — which would risk reinforcing the Tories’ reputation as the party of the rich.

In a speech tonight, George Osborne calls on businesses to respond en masse to the government’s consultation on whether to exempt small businesses from unfair dismissal claims. The Chancellor will say: ‘And now we’re beginning a call for evidence on the case for a new compensated no-fault dismissal for our smallest businesses. Plenty of trade unions and others will be submitting their evidence for why we shouldn’t do this. If you think we should, and it will increase employment, then don’t wait for someone else to send in the evidence. Send it in yourself.’ The fact that Osborne is personally throwing his weight behind the Beecroft agenda is striking.