James Forsyth

David Cameron has always nurtured a deep dislike of reshuffles, and the last week won’t have helped. The result might strengthen the government; but the process was as ghastly as the Prime Minister expected. He sought to be gentlemanly about things, publicising the promoted while granting the demoted privacy. Even so, I understand, three ministers burst into tears in front of him when he was delivering the bad news. Lady Warsi was so cross about being stripped of the party chairmanship that she went home to Yorkshire and carried on negotiations from there. Some ministers even succeeded in staying put when the Prime Minister would have liked them to move. On Monday afternoon, he asked Iain Duncan Smith to consider switching jobs.

It is not just ministers who are being moved around today: the Downing Street operation is also changing around. Though the people involved in these moves are less well-known than Cabinet ministers, in modern-day government — with its centralization of power in Number 10 — they are almost as important and in some cases more so. Oliver Dowden, who currently links up Number 10 and CCHQ, is becoming deputy Chief of Staff. I’m told that Dowden, widely regarded as one of the most able operators in the Conservative party, will have a particular emphasis on ensuring that domestic policy is driven through the government machine.

Andrew Mitchell’s appointment as chief whip sends out several messages to Conservative MPs. First, the decision to move a high-performing secretary of state to the whips office and the news that several of the best and the brightest of the new intake will be joining him there is meant to show MPs that Cameron is showing the whips office, the conduit for their concerns, respect. But with this comes a toughening up of discipline. The Prime Minister is bringing in a former army officer and veteran of the Maastricht whips office. One imagines that Conservative MPs will be rather more nervous about an interview without coffee with the chief whip now that Mitchell is in post.

The contours of the coalition’s autumn growth offensive are beginning to emerge. The impasse that existed before the summer appears to have at least eased. On Marr this morning, George Osborne announced that the Treasury is now working on plans for a small business bank which will please Vince Cable who has been pushing for this for a long time. At the same time, Osborne also backed more airport and runway capacity in the South East and announced that the government will announce further measures to simplify the planning system. His message: ‘we have to do more and do it faster’.

You know things really are difficult in the coalition when neither side is badmouthing the other. These days, when those around David Cameron and Nick Clegg bite their tongues, it tends to be because one jibe might bring down the coalition. Since 24 July, everyone has been on best behaviour. Over dinner that evening, Cameron and George Osborne told Clegg and Danny Alexander that Lords reform was off: they could not persuade enough Tory backbenchers to support it. The Liberal Democrat duo replied that, if this was so, their MPs would not vote for the boundary changes the Conservatives so dearly want. But the icy civility of recent days can’t disguise the fact that the coalition — indeed, the idea of coalition government — is in big trouble.

The biggest winner of the coalition spat over Lords reform and boundaries is, undoubtedly, Ed Miliband. The electoral hill he has to climb to be Prime Minister has just been reduced in size significantly by the fact that the next election is likely to be fought on the existing boundaries. A lead over the Tories of just three per cent would deliver him a majority. In quite a turn-around from last year, Miliband will go to his party conference as the most secure of the three leaders. But Miliband will soon face a problem, albeit a high quality one. At some point in the not too distant future, the media will start to treat him as a likely Prime Minister. This means that his policy positions will be examined with a far greater level of scrutiny than they currently are.

Perhaps the most intriguing part of Nick Clegg’s decision not to support the 2015 boundary changes as a ‘penalty’  for Lords reform not happening is that Downing Street is insisting on pushing on with the matter. I’m told that Number 10 will ‘do everything we can to persuade everyone we can to vote for them.’ When I put it to this senior Cameroon that this was futile given that with Lib Dem ministers and MPs voting against, there was no chance of getting it through the Commons, the source said ‘is it feasible [to get the boundary changes through], yes'. There are two possibilities here. One is that Cameron is pursuing a Micawber strategy, hoping that something will turn up which will allow him to get these changes through.

Aside from the party conferences, two big set piece events are looming large in Downing Street’s thinking: the coalition’s mid-term review and the autumn statement. Both of these are expected to be heavy on economic measures as the coalition tries to get growth going again in the face of the headwinds coming off the continent. I understand that extra runways at Stansted are being considered in an attempt to boost aviation capacity in the south east. David Cameron is also trying to boost the enterprise agenda of Margaret Thatcher’s favourite Cabinet minister Lord Young. He brought forward a meeting on it scheduled for September 5th to Thursday last week. He’s demanding that government departments do more to help entrepreneurs and cut red tape.