Will 2024 see an avalanche of tactical voting?
13 min listen
Isabel Hardman talks to James Forsyth and James Johnson of the J.L. Partners polling company, about how much the Conservative party has to fear from tactical votes at the next election.
Isabel Hardman is assistant editor of The Spectator and author of Why We Get the Wrong Politicians. She also presents Radio 4’s Week in Westminster.
13 min listen
Isabel Hardman talks to James Forsyth and James Johnson of the J.L. Partners polling company, about how much the Conservative party has to fear from tactical votes at the next election.
Boris Johnson has not accepted responsibility for the two by-election defeats. You could have written this line at any point today and it would be true – and it remains the case after the Prime Minister gave a press conference from the Commonwealth heads of government meeting in Kigali. He said the party needed to ‘listen to the messages that we are getting’ but made clear that the message he was hearing was that the government needed to focus not on Westminster matters but on delivering the things that mattered to the British people.
10 min listen
In a major blow, the Conservatives have lost two seats in the Tiverton and Wakefield by-elections. Immediately after, the Conservative party chairman, Oliver Dowden resigned citing 'a deeply personal decision' following a 'run of very poor results for our party'. The Lib Dems overturned a huge Tory majority in Tiverton and Honiton, Devon, their third by-election victory over Boris Johnson's party in a year. What does this suggest about the public mood towards their current government?
What now for Boris Johnson? He's lost two by-elections and a cabinet minister before breakfast, and isn't even in the country. His response from the Commonwealth heads of government meeting in Rwanda was that he would keep going, saying: I've got to listen to what people are saying, in particular to the difficulties people are facing over the cost of living, which is I think for most people the number one issue. I understand that the No. 10 plan to move on from these results had been to push up talk of an early general election in the autumn of this year. The Prime Minister had certainly been giving those signals to MPs who he has spoken to this week, suggesting it was time to 'get ready'.
Jacob Rees-Mogg this week unveiled something that has variously been mocked as either a 'vanity project' or the Johnson administration's equivalent of the Major government's Cones Hotline. The Cones Hotline was a policy designed to tackle the great social evil of traffic cones loitering without intent – and became emblematic of that government's tiredness and lack of proper ideas. The Brexit Opportunities Minister has come up with a 'retained EU law dashboard', which he told MPs yesterday was 'of both political - and in my view - historic constitutional importance'.
The latest inflation figures have sent Tory MPs into a tizz again, unsurprisingly. There are a number of things that they're upset about: the first is the ongoing refrain that their party should be cutting taxes, not imposing the highest tax burdens in living memory. Another is that Universal Credit is largely 'an unfinished project', in the words of one Red Wall backbencher who sees the impact of the malfunctioning benefit on his constituents. What both of these complaints have in common is that MPs feel the Treasury is deliberately pursuing the wrong policy: arguing that now isn't the time to cut taxes and choosing to spend money on grants for low earners rather than targeting the help through what is supposed to be a very responsive benefit.
Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer both came to Prime Minister's Questions today wanting to talk about the rail strikes. The Tory leader was keen to pin the blame on Labour, pointing out that 25 MPs from that party joined RMT picket lines yesterday. Starmer meanwhile thinks, as I explained here, that he can be bullish on this too because the public are blaming the government. The Labour leader asked whether Johnson was 'genuine about preventing strikes', calling for details of meetings he or Transport Secretary Grant Shapps had held with 'rail workers' (a way of avoiding saying 'unions') this week.
Is the government's approach to strikes and public sector pay too blunt? Today Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak took the opportunity of the Cabinet meeting to underline 'the importance of fiscal discipline'. The Chancellor told the meeting that 'the government had responsibility to not take any action that would feed into inflationary pressures or reduce the Government's ability to lower taxes in the future'. That's a roundabout way of saying to ministers (and the public, given this part of the private meeting was briefed out) that he's not budging on public sector pay increases. It is a far cry from the 'high wage, high skill economy' that the Prime Minister was promising just months ago at the Tory party conference.
11 min listen
The first day of strike action has begun with large parts of the country's railways, as well as London's underground lines, shut down. But where workers are trying to put pressure on the government and Network Rail over higher pay, it seems like the Labour party is in more trouble. Disagreement over the party's position on strike action (after all, it was set up to represent the unions in parliament) are playing out publicly, even on the front bench. Katy Balls talks to James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman.Produced by Cindy Yu.
Sir Keir Starmer has ended up in a very Starmer-esque pickle over the rail strikes this week. Yesterday he instructed Labour frontbenchers not to join picket lines, and said at the weekend that the strikes should not go ahead, having stayed rather quiet on the matter until then. This has annoyed many of his MPs, some of whom receive funding from the RMT, and others who believe Labour should be on the side of striking workers. Some of his frontbenchers have ignored the instruction and joined the pickets anyway. Now he has to decide whether to discipline and even sack those frontbenchers. The Tories meanwhile have been pursuing an aggressive strategy of calling these 'Labour's strikes' in campaign emails and open letters to shadow ministers.
11 min listen
Today begins a chaotic week for commuters who face major travel disruptions as rail staff stage the biggest walkout in 30 years. Union leaders have accused the government of 'inflaming tensions', as Grant Shapps has refused to negotiate with the unions over pay, conditions, job cuts and safety.Also on the podcast, what could be the outcome of Thursday's two by-elections? Isabel Hardman is joined by Katy Balls and James Forsyth.
Has Boris Johnson run out of ideas? It's not an unreasonable question at the end of a week in which more than 40 per cent of his MPs said they didn't want him leading them any more. Still less unreasonable when his big reveal policies have been getting on with something that David Cameron signed off on in 2015 but that hasn't yet happened; and a 'once in a generation' transformation of the NHS which seems to amount to some middle managers going on a course. The right to buy announcement will merely implement an old policy, while the mortgage review alongside it may help a few first time buyers.
There's a row afoot in the House of Lords. That's a bit of a dog-bites-man line these days, with government defeats in the Upper Chamber being so common that they're totally unremarkable. But this latest spot of bother doesn't come from Labour or the Lib Dems or even those difficult-to-read crossbenchers. No: the new rebels are a bunch of Tory ex-ministers who want to delete a large chunk of their party's own bill. At this stage, the trio are merely politely asking ministers to delete the first 18 clauses of the bill. The Schools Bill is currently in the Committee Stage - where peers go through line-by-line scrutiny of the legislation - in the Lords.
11 min listen
By sticking to his promise to ‘move on’ after the confidence vote, Boris has announced his new flagship policies during a speech in Blackpool. He unveiled the ‘benefits-to-bricks' pledge aimed at extending a home-buying scheme. Will new housing measures be enough to regain the support of the public and the dwindling respect from his party?Also on the podcast, two by-elections are on the way. This could be either a triumphant or disastrous result for the Prime Minister. How might he fare in an election of his own?Katy Balls speaks to Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth.
10 min listen
Boris Johnson was surrounded by opposition at the despatch box when he faced the Labour leader at PMQs today. Did Keir Starmer make the most of his opportunity to score points against the Prime Minister's disappointing result in the confidence vote the night before?Katy Balls speaks to Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth.
It's not unusual for a Labour leader to attack the government over the NHS at Prime Minister's Questions. Neither is it a topic of low salience at the moment, given the size of the backlog. But it was nonetheless Sir Keir Starmer's subject choice today was curious because it was precisely what Boris Johnson wanted to talk about, rather than the things he is trying to move on from. It's 'health week' in the Downing Street grid, and apparently in Starmer's too. Starmer did not make these points well.
Another day, another ridiculous Boris Johnson statement. This morning, the cabinet discussed whether the NHS was to become like Netflix, and predictably everyone has got very excited. It's worth having a look at what actually happened at the meeting, though. The official readout is that Sajid Javid — not Johnson ― updated ministers on 'the scale of the challenge post-pandemic — saying we had a Blockbuster healthcare system in the age of Netflix'. He then elaborated on this: 'He said it was no longer simply an option to stick with the status quo. He said large-scale changes were needed in areas such as the use of technology and data to help frontline workers deliver the high-quality service the public expects.' What is he on about?
13 min listen
It is the day after the night before when Boris Johnson narrowly survived a confidence vote. Today he held a meeting with the Cabinet to tell his colleagues it is time to ‘move on’. ‘This looks like a slow Tory suicide to me’ - Fraser Nelson Some critics have pointed to the fact that shortly after winning a confidence vote with similar margins, John Major, Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May ended up resigning. What will be Boris Johnson's fate as the Tory rebels plot out their next moves? Isabel Hardman is joined by Katy Balls, James Forsyth and Fraser Nelson.
11 min listen
The results are in. 211 Tory MPs expressed confidence in the Prime Minister, while 148 said they had no confidence in Boris Johnson continuing to lead the Conservative party. While this is technically a win, it is a narrower victory than Theresa May (who looked splendid in her ball gown tonight) got in her no-confidence vote which lead to her resignation only months later. Is this the beginning of the end for Boris?Isabel Hardman is joined by Katy Balls and James Forsyth on the roof of Parliament to discuss.
Boris Johnson has just insisted that he has had 'an extremely positive' and 'decisive result' in the vote of confidence in his leadership. He said the government can 'come together' and 'put behind' it all the rows of the past few months and 'focus on the stuff that the public actually want us to be talking about'. Speaking in Downing Street a few minutes ago, the Prime Minister claimed that tonight's result gave him a bigger mandate than the one he had won from his party in 2019. He was either suffering from a heavy head cold, or extremely emotional, as he kept sniffing and stumbling over his words.