Isabel Hardman

The Conservatives have just published their poster for the Eastleigh by-election. Like most campaigns, they're capitalising on the fact that the Tory candidate, Maria Hutchings, is local. But in their slogan they've also told voters that she's the one constituents can trust. This shows that, even though Nick Clegg argued in the Q&A after his speech yesterday that the contest shouldn't be about Chris Huhne, the party wants to make as much of the former Energy Secretary's exit as they possibly can in this bloody battle. UPDATE, 17.40pm: A rather sardonic Lib Dem source tells me: 'I have to say, campaigning against Chris Huhne when he's not a candidate is an intriguing idea.

The Haribo they were eating all night clearly worked: European leaders have just agreed on the first budget cut since the EU's formation. All credit to David Cameron for getting more than even he'd imagined was possible. But what does the Prime Minister do next? Well, he could do what he did after his historic EU speech, which is to make a rather paltry attempt at capitalising on the excellent mood in the Conservative party by organising an afternoon Commons debate with William Hague congratulating his leader on being so eurosceptic and poking fun at Labour.

EU leaders have just left their negotiations over the EU budget for a two hour break and so far it's looking very, very positive for the Prime Minister. Perhaps David Cameron should pick a bracing walk rather than a car into every summit from now on because in the early hours of this morning, EU president Herman Van Rompuy tabled a package that would answer Cameron's demands for a reduction in spending. This €34.4 billion cut for the spending limits in the multi annual financial framework billion would be the first cut in the budget in the EU's history. As I said yesterday, the PM was in a tight spot, not wanting to irritate EU leaders too much, or come back to his own parliament empty handed.

David Cameron caused a stir today by walking, yes, walking, into the meeting of European leaders in Brussels to discussed the multiannual financial framework. Other leaders arrived in their cars. Perhaps he was trying to make a point about the EU's excesses as he seeks a reduction in the spending plans currently on the table, but in case they didn't get the hint, he gave this broadcast clip on arrival, saying: 'Frankly the European Union should not be immune from the sorts of pressures that we've had to reduce spending, find efficiencies and make sure that we spend money wisely that we're all having to do right across Europe.

If Mark Carney had any reservations about his move to Threadneedle Street later this year, he might now add to his list regular sessions with the Treasury Select Committee. His three-and-a-half hour hearing included a quiz from Committee member David Ruffley on his ability to explain capital ratios and other terms, questions on how many mistakes he'd be happy for staff to make, whether he wanted to rename the Bank's Court, and whether he'd judge his success on the return of growth to the economy during his tenure.

Coalition ministers and commentators like to study Michael Gove as an example of a successful reforming politician. The Education Secretary is most definitely man not mouse, taking on some of the most vehement vested interests in our public services, and even appearing to enjoy himself while he does it. But today's change of tack on GCSE reform shows that the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry.

Joe Murphy has a rather amusing story in the Standard this afternoon about Tory malcontents' latest manoeuvres against the Prime Minister. He reports several MPs saying Cameron will need to meet five key tests in order to secure his position as leader. How very democratic of them, measuring the Prime Minister's performance against a set of targets, rather than just saying they don't like him, or comparing him to a chambermaid. But when you read what those targets are, you see the problem that the Prime Minister has with his backbenches.

David Cameron does big solemn occasions well. He's skilled at taking a statement above the usual tit-for-tat partisan exchanges in the Commons. Everyone knows that, as does the Prime Minister, which is why he made the statement on the Francis Report rather than the Health Secretary. The Tories know that turning the response to this inquiry into a political football would not serve the party well, given Labour's 16-point lead in the polls on the NHS. The tone was sombre, with the Prime Minister apologising for the suffering caused by failures at the Mid Staffordshire NHS trust. He also emphasised that today was not about hunting down scapegoats, even though some are calling for the resignation of Sir David Nicholson as NHS chief executive.

Today MPs are debating a matter of conscience, invoking their personal religious beliefs as they examine the same sex marriage bill. The debate has largely remained remarkably respectful thus far. But tomorrow the Prime Minister will give a statement on another matter that stirs similar religious fervour: the NHS. It will be David Cameron who delivers the government's response to the Francis Report on the failings of the Mid Staffordshire NHS Trust, not the Health Secretary. The Prime Minister manages these occasions well: we saw that with the Bloody Sunday and Hillsborough statements. British voters might, according to the latest census data, be losing their religion. But when it comes to the NHS, they remain faithful.

The committee of MPs considering the Justice and Security Bill was sitting today, but outside the group of loyal MPs scrutinising the Bill line by line, moves are still afoot from those who oppose part II, which enables secret court hearings. I understand that there is now a group of Conservative MPs keen to support further amendments being considered by Andrew Tyrie, which I covered on Coffee House last week, including Douglas Carswell and Peter Bone. Tyrie says: 'The Joint Committee on Human Rights are right to call for more judicial discretion, so-called equality of arms and a much narrower definition of “sensitive” information.

If you'd hoped we'd seen the back of the term 'global race', which featured so heavily in the autumn statement, think again. It looks like it's going to be a big theme for the next parliamentary session, too. The Cabinet met this morning to discuss the content of the next Queen's Speech. The ministers present were told that legislation for the next session would focus on supporting the government's priorities of 'economic competitiveness' and Britain's position in the 'global race' (there we go), and 'aspirations and fairness'. CCHQ staffers have already told me they're sick of the phrase, which probably means it's only just percolated as far as Portcullis House, so expect to hear it coming out too far and too fast from ministers' mouths over the next few months.