Isabel Hardman is assistant editor of The Spectator and author of Why We Get the Wrong Politicians. She also presents Radio 4’s Week in Westminster.
George Osborne is in Beijing at the moment, drumming up support for Britain in the global race. Although that doesn't quite work because Britain is obviously racing China in this global race, but all the same, he wants China to run alongside Britain cheering it, rather than sledging as it steams ahead. And to be able to do that, this country apparently needs to swallow some of its pride about the sort of country that China is.
Much rejoicing in the ranks of education reformers today as just one sinner repents. Tristram Hunt has toldthe Mail On Sunday that Labour doesn't think free schools are just for 'yummy mummies' and that now his party does support free schools, but under the 'parent-led academies' banner. This is supposed to be a Damascene moment for Hunt, but really he's just explaining with greater clarity the stance his predecessor Stephen Twigg took in June. Here is the key line from the MoS: Will PLAs offer everything free schools have got? ‘Yes, but in an area of need, absolutely,’ Hunt enthuses. ‘The innovation, creativity, community engagement you see in the best free schools – great, let’s have more.
The congratulations have been flowing in from across the Labour party for Tristram Hunt as the new Shadow Education Secretary. But there is no praise higher for the newly promoted MP than to get a detailed letter from Michael Gove testing his mettle just a few days into the job. Gove saw Stephen Twigg as someone he didn't need to worry about a great deal, more of a distraction from his daily hobby of provoking the teaching unions than a mighty threat. But Hunt, while still possibly in danger of proving too Blairite for his party's tastes, appears a mightier candidate. Education Questions in the Commons will certainly be an entertaining festival of rhetoric from now on. The letter, which you can read in full here, says: 'Congratulations on your promotion to the Shadow Cabinet.
Labour has decided that David Cameron's slip-up on marriage tax breaks at PMQs is worth digging into for a little longer.
Perhaps David Cameron got up super-early to open his birthday presents today, or perhaps he's a bit tired after his fortnight of party conference and reshuffle mayhem, but the Prime Minister wasn't on top form today at PMQs. Neither was Ed Miliband, for that matter. Both men bickered about who had the best energy policy, like two kids comparing birthday presents in a playground. Neither really got in a deadly shot, with both seeming a little halting.
At their autumn conference, the Tories managed to get the last word in on the cost of living debate by explaining that you can't just talk about living standards while not having a proper plan for the economy. This was all very well and good and the party leadership was confident that this was an easy sell to voters who already trust them more on the economy and continue to blame Labour. But many were worried that without the sort of retail offer that Labour had made at its conference, the Tories still wouldn't cut through. George Osborne's fuel duty freeze announcement in his speech was the start of what will now be a drip-drip of cost of living measures in the run-up to the autumn statement.
It's funny that the pizzas that ministers, advisers and lobbyists munched as they thrashed out a deal on press regulation in March have become a symbol of all that was wrong with those late-night negotiations. Today when Maria Miller decided to distance herself from the talks in Ed Miliband's office, a source close to the Culture Secretary explained that this included 'the Miliband office, the pizza, it was the presence of Hacked Off'. Obviously the presence of Hacked Off was more menacing than a few boxes of ham and pineapple pizza, but both have been banned from the three days of talks that the parties will now go into, ahead of a final decision on Friday.
Poor old Ed Balls. He's been making predictions of doom that now appear to have gone too far and too fast. The latest blow to the Shadow Chancellor is that the IMF, which he went through a period of definitely liking a lot when its lieutenants started suggesting that austerity was 'playing with fire', has upgraded its growth forecasts for the UK by more than any other major economy. This map from the organisation's latest World Economic Outlook illustrates rather neatly how well the IMF expects the UK to do in comparison to other European economies. Obviously this doesn't mean that everything is fine and dandy and that everyone in the UK can enjoy golden sunlit uplands from now on. Balls is certainly one who isn't skipping through meadows of flowers with joy at the news.
Diane Abbott's exit from the Labour frontbench has come later than the former Shadow Public Health Minister imagined. She had planned to resign over the Syria vote, only to find, rather to her dismay, that her party leadership had taken the position she supported in the end. Behind the scenes, the briefing is that she wasn't sufficiently loyal: she has always been in her own party rather than pulling for the team. LabourList has a fantastic quote from a party source about Abbott 'pissing all over the tents', rather than 'pissing out of the tent' as had been hoped.
If the strange mood of Tory unity over Europe is giving you the heebie-jeebies, then have a look at high-speed rail. When disunity boils over, which it is likely to do later this autumn, it will cause the party real problems. Unless, of course, Adam Afriyie decides to launch some kind of coup on HS2, in which case Parliament will probably unite to support the new line and that will be the last we hear of it. Labour is now crouching in the undergrowth, waiting for the Tory disunity to bubble over. The party hasn't quite dropped its love of stirring things up a bit, and the disappearance of Maria Eagle from the Shadow Transport Brief means the party is really ready for the right moment to trash the 'north-south line'.
Adam Afriyie's sleepless nights are over. His amendments to the European Union (Referendum) Bill are now down and waiting hopefully for signatures. The MP claimed at the weekend that he had cross-party support for his call for an early referendum, but currently only two names - Afriyie's and Keith Vaz - feature on the paper. Given the ambitious MP's attempt to shake things up in the Conservative party didn't have quite the desired effect, it will be interesting to see which MPs still think it worth signing these two amendments, which add 23 October 2014 as the referendum date to the legislation. The newly beefed-up whips office may not see this as its greatest threat.
Labour types are pretty grumpy that yesterday's far-reaching reshuffle of their ranks is being billed as another 'lurch to the left'. The reality is a little more complex: the party hasn't lurched to the left so much as lurched towards being honest about what it believes. This was what Ed Miliband did in Brighton two weeks ago. He didn't suddenly discover, with a jolt, that he was a socialist: he just started being more honest about that. Liam Byrne, Stephen Twigg and Jim Murphy were moved not because they were hopeless performers, but because they were never really given a chance to perform. What was Labour's policy on free schools? Twigg spent most of his tenure being tortured by the conflict between his own instincts and what it was that the party leadership thought was right.
The details of the government reshuffle are currently being hammered out at the 8.30 Downing Street meeting. But as MPs and ministers nervously wait for the call from the Number 10 switchboard, Ed Miliband will be plotting his own changes to his top team for later this week. And as key Shadow Cabinet members such as Liam Byrne look vulnerable, one shadow minister who is holding on with all he's got is Andy Burnham. The Shadow Health Secretary is very popular with the party's grassroots, but he is also politically vulnerable because of his connections to the previous Labour government. But though Ed Miliband failed to publicly back Burnham at the party's conference, his colleague has in the past few days launched an offensive on his detractors that also makes it more difficult to move him.
As the reshuffle heaves in to view, plenty of names are in the frame for promotion, both on the backbenches and junior ministerial ranks. Some of those names include members of the Number 10 policy board, chosen for that role because they were all deemed to be talented individuals. This means they are also considered rising stars and suitable ministerial material. But I've heard that the PM's thinking is to leave the policy board well alone, partly because its members have already had their promotion, and others still languishing on the backbenches deserve a chance too. In a coalition, you don't have as much luxury to promote every promising MP as you do in a majority one party government.
In the past few minutes, Deputy Chief Whip John Randall and Cabinet Office Minister Chloe Smith have quit the government ahead of an expected reshuffle this week. James outlined some of the movers and shakers in his column today, and we will bring you full details of the departures and moves as they come, although the word from Downing Street is that there will be no more departures tonight. Smith had the distinction of being able to announce her own departure on Twitter, saying she decided last month:- Stepped down as Minister,proud of record.Told PM of my decision in Sept:my constituency work has always mattered most http://t.
Adam Afriyie has certainly chosen an odd time to sow discord in Tory ranks over Europe. The party is so happy that it appeared oddly sedated at its conference last week. Even normally grumpy MPs are chuffed with the way Lynton Crosby and Grant Shapps are sharpening the Conservative message. And the PM has, in his own way, been trying his best to make backbenchers feel loved. But Afriyie has also chosen an odd way of causing trouble in the party, possibly so odd that his amendment won't have the desired effect. Not a single hardcore eurosceptic that I've spoken to this morning heard from the rebel MP before he announced his amendment in the Mail on Sunday. One says to me: 'He hasn't consulted eurosceptics and his strategy is peculiar and counterproductive. It's career hara-kiri for him.
When Tom Watson left the Labour frontbench, he was fulsome in praise (in the correct sense of the phrase) for his leader. But since then, he's not exactly been trying that hard to keep Ed Miliband in a state of zen-like calm. He told the Marr Show this morning that he would support Adam Afriyie's troublemaking amendment to the EU referendum bill: 'I don't want to add to the PM's panic but I will probably be supporting Adam Afriyie with his amendments so… I think there are a lot of people on both sides of the House who think we need clarity on this now. And the country has asked for it for a long time, business is saying that there is a lot of uncertainty, and you know, parties have got to draw up their manifestos for the 2015 general election.
James Wharton, the Tory MP leading the EU referendum bill through the House of Commons, has become something of a minor celebrity in the party, with admiring young things approaching him at the Conservative conference last week as though he were a minister of Ken Clarke's standing, not a backbencher. His performance with the legislation so far suggests that he is destined for great things, but he's currently rather preoccupied with the attempt by one of his backbench colleagues, the even more ambitious Adam Afriyie, to sabotage the bill. Afriyie writes in the Mail on Sunday that he is tabling an amendment to the legislation calling for a referendum on 23 October next year. He writes: 'But why 2014? The Prime Minister says we are going to have an EU referendum in 2017.
Simon Burns isn't the only Tory MP who fancies a crack at the Deputy Speakership, even if, as James has blogged, he might be the preferred Number 10 candidate. Other names include Nadine Dorries and Eleanor Laing. But I've just spoken to Brian Binley, who says that he has pretty much made up his mind to stand too. Binley said: 'I haven't completely made up my mind but I've had a lot of support. I've pretty much decided but I just want to be in the House when it is sitting to see what the mood is there. All the support I have had so far suggests that it is going to be good.' This is the Brian Binley of chambermaid and janitor fame, a man whose outspoken comments on the leadership will make him very popular indeed with backbenchers.
When David Cameron first addressed Parliament on the Francis Report, he told MPs that he didn't want to seek scapegoats. Some of his MPs were disappointed that the Tory leadership wasn't going after Andy Burnham or Sir David Nicholson. Well, the latter has left, and the former is looking vulnerable in a forthcoming Labour reshuffle, and for months the gloves have been off. After gaining access to a dossier of emails suggesting that Labour tried to stop the Care Quality Commission informing the public about failings at Basildon Hospital, Tory MP Stephen Barclay, who has been digging away on this for months, has called for Burnham to resign. He said: ‘Labour tried to cover up failing hospitals before the last General Election.