Isabel Hardman is assistant editor of The Spectator and author of Why We Get the Wrong Politicians. She also presents Radio 4’s Week in Westminster.
I'm in Wythenshawe and Sale East today with Ukip's by-election candidate John Bickley. I'll have a full report of the party's exploits later, but for the meantime, here's a chat I had with Bickley about the campaign.
David Cameron will tell Scots this morning that the UK wants Scotland to stay a part of the Union. That he's giving this speech at all is being read in some quarters as a sign that he's at least underwhelmed by the show put on so far by Better Together leader Alistair Darling. The PM's intervention certainly marks a change of tone from the most recent speeches, particularly Mark Carney's, which George Osborne praised as a very good 'technical' speech. Thus far the 'no' campaign has relied more on the technical argument which Alex Salmond has brushed away as minor objections to the great principle of independence. So Cameron is making the emotional case.
What are the Coalition parties going to do for the next few months in the run-up to the general election? Judging by the way the Liberal Democrats have behaved this week, they're going to spend a great deal of time talking about Michael Gove, which isn't encouraging for anyone who got a little bored of that particular ding-dong around the time of the childcare debacle. They're certainly not planning to do much in the way of legislating, either.
This evening, Conservative MPs have been told that Aidan Burley, the MP for Cannock Chase who attended a Nazi-themed stag do is standing down in 2015. He said: 'After a difficult time I have decided to announce I will stand down at the next general election. I will continue to work for the people of Cannock Chase until that election, and look forward to supporting my successor, as soon as he or she is selected, to ensure that Labour have no chance of re-taking this seat.' Rather graciously, Grant Shapps has issued this statement: 'Aidan has a strong record in his constituency from securing the future of Cannock Chase Hospital, to setting up local job fairs and getting hundreds of people back to work. He has served his constituents with dedication and commitment.
Aside from his ding-dong over floods with Ed Miliband at PMQs today, David Cameron also faced questions from backbenchers who have been affected by the floods. Conservative Graham Stuart asked whether the Prime Minister shared his 'outrage at the false choice presented by the Chairman of the Environment Agency between protecting urban and rural areas from flood'. He was referring to Smith's op-ed for the Telegraph earlier this week in which the quango chief pitched town and country against one another. The Prime Minister replied: 'I think my honourable friend is absolutely right: there shouldn't be a false choice between protecting the town or protecting the people who live in the countryside.
'I know a few people who could arrange just that,' remarked a Tory MP this morning on reading Danny Alexander's remarks in the Mirror that the Conservatives would reduce the top rate of tax to 40p 'over my dead body'. He told the newspaper: 'The top rate of tax has been an issue of late. Labour wants to take it back up to 50p, I think the 45p rate is the right place to be. I wouldn’t go to cutting below 45p – that would happen over my dead body. It’s better to say we are going to stick where we are.' It's worth pointing out that Alexander only means over his dead body in this Parliament. A source close to the Chief Secretary to the Treasury tells me: 'What he's saying is over my dead body in this Parliament. He's very explicit in the language he uses.
The Conservatives have just held a party meeting where Lynton Crosby was supposed to be reading them the riot act over their behaviour in the past few weeks. But the MPs leaving seemed to think it was 'lovely', 'very positive' and 'all very tame', which sounds like an unconventional roasting. The meeting focused on turning technical achievements into an emotional message and strategy for the European elections. The latter includes listing where the Conservatives have already delivered: on the EU budget, the veto and cutting bailouts, which should be proof enough that the Conservatives can deliver more. Apparently the Prime Minister and George Osborne said nothing.
George Osborne's evidence to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee was dispiriting for a number of reasons. The first was that he told the peers that the chances are that politicians will still be struggling to ensure that housing supply keeps up with demand in 10 years' time. He said: 'I imagine if we were all assembled again in 10 years' time we'd still be talking about the challenge of making sure that our housing supply kept up with housing demand and we're all legislators here and we all have a responsibility to the next generation.' listen to ‘George Osborne: Housing crisis will still be with us in 10 years' time.
The Labour party's National Executive Committee has backed Ed Miliband's plans to change the party's trade union links by 28 votes to two, which marks a resounding victory for the Labour leader. There was little doubt that the NEC would endorse the reforms, which will still take five years to be implemented, and in the end the two members who opposed the proposals (another member abstained) were vocal leftwing backbencher Dennis Skinner and Christine Shawcroft. The next step is for the party to vote on the reforms at a special conference on 1 March. Miliband said this afternoon: 'Some people will find change difficult to accept. Others are worried about the consequences.
Ukip wants to use the Wythenshawe and Sale East by-election as a way of spooking Labour into realising that it can steal votes from every party, not just the Tories. Labour is sufficiently worried to be trialling special anti-Ukip leaflets in the constituency, but behind-the-scenes senior figures still seem reasonably relaxed about the real threat that Nigel Farage's party poses. The picture (from Guido) above, though, shows that Ukip is trying to hit the two weak spots for Labour, the ones it is trying to neutralise rather than develop radical policy on: welfare and immigration.
You can tell how little someone respects and admires someone by the number of times they say 'with respect'. Based on the number of times Iain Duncan Smith and Robert Devereux used that phrase in today's Work and Pensions Select Committee, relations have really hit rock bottom between DWP and the MPs scrutinising the department. Just to underline his irritation at some of the questions, IDS told Glenda Jackson that he had 'no idea what you are asking' and that to understand her, he would have to take a foreign language course. Devereux snapped that she was criticising him for answering the question she'd set, and repeatedly complained that the committee was 'going round in circles'.
In part two of the Constituent Spring, Tim Yeo's constituency association has just voted not to re-adopt him as their Conservative candidate. The Tory MP had appealed against the decision of the South Suffolk Conservative Association's decision to deselect him, and the result of the vote on this was announced today. Yeo said: 'It has been a privilege to serve as MP for South Suffolk since 1983. I will continue to work for all my constituents until the General Election next year. I am immensely grateful to all those Conservative Party members who voted for me to continue as their MP. I now ask them all to campaign for my successor with the same loyalty and dedication they have shown to me.
Michael Gove's speech today was, as James explained at the weekend, a pitch from the Tories to be the optimists of the 2015 election. He wanted to have a little boast about the success of the government's education reforms in raising the desirability of a state education. He said: 'When Channel Four make documentaries about great comprehensives - academies - in Essex and Yorkshire, when BBC3 make heroes out of tough young teachers, when even Tatler publishes a guide to the best state schools - you know tectonic plates have started to shift.' This is hardly the running down of teachers or state schools that Gove's critics like to complain about. But this speech has still attracted a fair bit of rage.
The 2020 group of modernising, mostly 2010-intake, Conservatives is trying to muscle in on their party's manifesto-writing process by producing an impressive number of reports that they hope the Tory brains trust writing the 2015 offer will hoover up. The latest, 'Sweating our assets': productivity and efficiency across the UK economy was led by Laura Sandys, with David Ruffley, Baroness Wheatcroft, Nicola Blackwood and Steven Barclay all contributing. It has some eye-catching proposals, such as a ban on certain products such as mobile phones going to landfill. But what is more interesting about this report is the way it is trying to frame a favourite argument of the modernisers.
The row between the Lib Dems and Conservatives over Ofsted has taken a curious turn this morning, with Lib Dem MP David Ward, not particularly well-liked by the leadership, appearing as a party spokesman on the Today programme. Given this is about someone's fixed-term contract not being renewed (any voters who are bothering to pay attention to this row will wish a similar fuss was made when the same thing happened to them), it is, as Fraser said on Saturday, an entirely manufactured row designed to appeal to that very specific group of voters Nick Clegg is trying to court. But this row does raise an interesting question about the Coalition. James wrote in his politics column this week that the two parties are merely cohabiting now. This means they can go the distance to 2015.
Concern is growing across the House of Commons about Theresa May's last-minute amendment to the Immigration Bill rendering foreign-born terror suspects 'stateless'. Today on Radio 4's the Week in Westminster, I interviewed Laura Sandys and Mark Reckless, two Tory MPs who occupy rather different ends of the Conservative spectrum. But both expressed discomfort with this proposal, and were clear they'd voted for it because they'd been promised a briefing afterwards.
So the Constituent Spring continues. Thirsk and Malton Conservatives have just announced that they have voted to not re-adopt their MP Anne McIntosh. The party has announced that selection for a candidate will open shortly, but McIntosh has vowed to fight on. She said: ‘I’d like to thank all those who supported me throughout, from both Vale of York and Thirsk and Malton. ‘It is my intention to stand for Thirsk, Malton and Filey constituency at the next General Election. ‘Meanwhile I remain committed to the Conservative Party locally and nationally and shall continue with my constituency and parliamentary duties with my customary passion.
The row over the Immigration Bill is by no means over. It will go to the Lords next, where peers will doubtless have a few things to say about certain aspects of it. Theresa May is still in a hurry to get it through Parliament, so there will likely be some interesting tricks from the government side to try to speed things up. But Conservative MPs are also very concerned about something they backed last night which gained far less attention. The Home Secretary rushed out an amendment on Wednesday night which would render 'stateless' foreign-born terror suspects. The details are actually rather alarming: someone who had already naturalised in this country would have their passport taken away from them.
After the week he's had in the Commons, no-one would blame David Cameron for heading for the pub today. Unfortunately, he's got François Hollande in tow as he pitches up at a pub in his constituency, and the pair are supposed to be discussing European reform over the pork scratchings. This isn't great timing, frankly. The rebellious mood of the Tory party is in part down to a desire from backbenchers for more details of Cameron's European renegotiation plan - and signs that he's going to get what he wants too. A summit with another norther European country might yield more positive noises on this, as Cameron does have allies on the notion of European reform (although not the sort of reform to Britain's relationship with the EU that his backbenchers want).
So Labour did save the government's bacon by voting against the Raab amendment on deportation while the government abstained on it. 97 MPs backed Dominic Raab's amendment with the two tellers, that's 99 MPs): a very clear message to ministers. This includes 86 Conservatives, according to the vote analysis, and 9 Labour MPs. The Mills amendment wasn't voted on, so we'll never know how successful the whips were in driving that rebellion to ground. There are a number of things that are remarkable about this. The first is the utter disorganisation not just within the parties but also across the parties. The Opposition decided to vote against something that the government told them was illegal but the government itself did not vote against it. Which makes the government look confused at best.
