Isabel Hardman

Presuming that George Osborne isn't sitting in the Treasury, perspiring slightly as he tries to work out what on earth he could offer as a big surprise in the Budget, here are some suggestions on what that surprise rabbit from the hat could be*. A lower AME welfare cap funds a higher personal allowanceThe Chancellor is due to set the level of the spending cap for welfare in today's Budget. Could he set it much lower than expected, and use the extra money saved to raise the personal allowance much higher than expected? This would mean he can tie welfare spending to taxpayers' money in an even more explicit way than he has done previously, and challenge Labour to vote against the cap by saying that they'd be denying taxpayers more of their hard-earned cash during a cost-of-living crisis.

Unsurprisingly, Michael Gove's FT interview in which he attacked the 'preposterous' number of Old Etonians around David Cameron - widely interpreted as a sally on behalf of George Osborne - has gone down like a lead balloon with the Prime Minister. I understand that Cameron had a stern word with the Education Secretary over the weekend, with one source telling me that 'he was torn a new one and given a right royal bollocking'. Cameron has made it very clear to Gove that his words were 'bang out of order' and that his aim is to focus on the Cabinet job in hand, not go on freelance missions. Meanwhile, those supporting Boris's leadership ambitions are deeply amused by the amount of energy being expended by the Osborne camp on furthering his prospects on the Tory backbenches.

Viviane Reding is a bit of a favourite among UK ministers. The European Commissioner for Justice has a knack of making such a good case for reform of Europe with her interviews and policies that Conservatives - and indeed Ukippers - are quite content for her to intervene as often as possible. This week, she's got another cunning plan that eloquently makes the case for reform of Europe - and ministers will be standing up to her again. Reding is expected to publish the second annual EU Justice Scoreboard on Monday:  it's a league table of all the EU member states' justice systems. At first glance, this sounds like a nice idea: compare the independence and efficiency of different justice systems to encourage under performing countries to improve.

The Tories have been hoping that their pledge for a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU would split Labour – it was the rationale behind John Baron's regular pushes for legislation in this parliament for a referendum in the next, which David Cameron eventually satisfied as far as he could with the Wharton Bill. But so far the only dissenting voices on Ed Miliband's pledge today for an 'unlikely' referendum have been the usual suspects on the backbenches such as Graham Stringer and John Mann. That's hardly a 'furious backlash' and more expected and manageable rage – at present, anyway. It will be interesting to see whether there are many more senior figures who break cover or at least brief off the record about the Labour stance on this issue.

Why is Ed Miliband going to rule out a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU in a speech tomorrow? The Labour leader has written in the FT that he would legislate for a new referendum lock which would force an In/Out referendum if there was another transfer of British power to Brussels, which essentially means he supports the current situation under the Coalition. And he says in the piece that the transfer is unlikely in the next Parliament. Which means no referendum. He writes that Labour's position on Europe... "… is clear and principled: we strongly believe Britain’s future is in the EU. And my priorities for government after the next election are very different from those of the Conservatives.