Isabel Hardman

What's next for David Cameron's tussle with Brussels? The Prime Minister made clear yesterday that 'we are not paying a sum anything like' the £1.7 billion demanded by the European Commission last week, and now the focus is on how much he can get the bill reduced by. He will have to pay a bill, but to maintain credibility, the Prime Minister must end up paying something much smaller than the original demand. Next week George Osborne and other European finance ministers will hold emergency talks on the bill, and today Number 10 set out what the Chancellor plans to say at those talks.

MPs have a free vote tonight on Zac Goldsmith's amendment to the Recall Bill. But I have learned that instead of voting with their Tory colleague, the Prime Minister and chief whip are to abstain in the vote. Michael Gove and David Cameron have agreed to do so, not because they oppose Goldsmith's proposals, which will, he claims, ensure a powerful form of recall rather than that endorsed by Nick Clegg. Instead, they will not walk through the lobbies because the Lib Dems have asked them not to. Clegg and co were apparently wary of an ambush by the Tories whereby the party would officially hold a free vote, but backbenchers would in practice follow their party leader and whip through the lobbies. And so to avoid this, they asked for the abstention.

Kelly Tolhurst has won the open primary to be Conservative candidate for Rochester and Strood, I understand. The result is not due to be announced until this evening, but I hear that Tolhurst won by fewer than 50 votes on a turnout of 4,000. The turnout is the key in this as it will give some indication as to the level of interest in the constituency in the Conservative candidate. It is worth bearing in mind that the turnout in Sarah Wollaston's open primary in Totnes was 16,497. That much lower turnout in a more high-profile contest following a defection will add to party worries following yet another poll showing Ukip ahead in the constituency. UPDATE, 20.10: Tolhurst has been confirmed as the candidate.

One of the bits of their Parliamentary party meeting this week that cheered Conservative MPs the most was a speech by Tracey Crouch on why the Tories could win the Rochester and Strood by-election. Many of her colleagues who like to spend their spare time staring at spreadsheets are sincerely worried that the party could lose the seat, leading to all hell breaking loose in the party. Crouch, who represents the neighbouring constituency and will act as the campaign aide to the candidate once she is selected (the shortlist in the postal primary is a choice between two women), told the room that the demographic of Rochester favours the Conservatives far more than that in Clacton: it has fewer pensioners, more professionals and the voters are on higher incomes.

Is Number 10 really preparing for a U-turn on the European Arrest Warrant? After Coffee House reported some odd manoeuvres by chief whip Michael Gove involving him suggesting to Tory MPs that it might be better for the government not to opt back into the EAW, the topic came up at this afternoon's lobby briefing. The Number 10 spokesperson told journalists that: 'The government has set out the areas where it is, in principle, seeking to opt back in. We want to secure European agreement on that and then we will take a final view on which ones we opt back into.' That sounds rather like there is room for a shift. But a Number 10 source is insisting to me that 'there is no change'.

Whatever David Cameron's promised 'big bang' announcement on immigration in the EU is, it has certainly excited Conservative backbenchers. A group of them confronted him this afternoon to ask whether Britain would be moving to a points-based system for EU migration along the lines of Australia (something Ukip advocates), and they say that he did not reject it. This has made them even more excited. The Prime Minister was speaking to the 'No Turning Back' group of Tory MPs, which some of those present at the meeting described as 'a little uncomfortable', mainly because these are the MPs who tend to cause him the most trouble. Others felt the meeting was relaxed, but left wondering whether Cameron really would deliver on these hints that he's been dropping over the last few months.

The Tories will announce a big new policy on freedom of movement in the European Union, David Cameron told his MPs tonight. At a meeting of the Parliamentary party, the Tory leader promised what one Eurosceptic attendee described as a 'big bang' announcement on freedom of movement. Apparently this pleased those there no end, even those usually critical of the Prime Minister. MPs were also told they are expected to visit Rochester to campaign at least three times, and the cabinet five times, which is clearly an intervention from Lynton Crosby as the whips had decided at the end of last week that they wouldn't bother. This was what one source close to the PM described as 'a call to arms for us all'.