Isabel Hardman

Blue collars are all the rage in the Tory party these days, which makes Stephen Crabb a very fashionable cabinet minister. He was brought up in a Welsh council house by his mother, a single parent. His political views were shaped by seeing the way in which Thatcher’s reforms transformed his neighbourhood. He still believes Conservative values give the best hope for working-class and Welsh voters. As George Osborne leads an ever-deeper raid on Labour territory, we can expect to see and hear a lot more from people like Stephen Crabb. For the last year this confident 42-year-old has been Secretary of State for his native Wales, and his approach has been to champion full-blooded — rather than semi-apologetic — conservatism.

Labour is in an almighty mess at the moment. Those involved in the leadership campaigns are surprised by how the mood in the party has changed from quite open acceptance of a need to change in the days after the election defeat to angry dissent when change is suggested, as evidenced by the reaction to Harriet Harman’s welfare policies this week. The party isn’t quite having a row about what it should stand for at the next election, preferring instead to argue about how it does opposition for the next eight weeks, most of which are in Parliamentary recess. Here are the various options for what Labour does, both in those eight weeks, and once it gets its new leader. - Adopt all Tory policies because that’s what the electorate want.

The Shadow Cabinet has split all ways on what to do about welfare. Andy Burnham says he wants a reasoned amendment to the second reading of the welfare reform and work bill that protests some of the policies, but I understand he indicated in Shadow Cabinet that he would go along with the official party line anyway when the vote comes. There is, though, quite a lot of confidence that Harman will capitulate and allow a reasoned amendment, which would make things much easier. If she does not, then not opposing the legislation will be ‘difficult’ for Yvette Cooper, sources on her campaign team say, given rebelling against the party would have huge consequences for her current position as Shadow Home Secretary.

The SNP's 56 MPs will vote against relaxing the hunting ban on Wednesday, the party has announced. The party's stance was decided at a meeting of the party this evening, with the SNP saying it is 'right' that the party 'assert the Scottish interest on fox hunting by voting against the Tories' proposals to relax the ban'. There are only 90 minutes to debate the measure on Wednesday, but inevitably some of that precious time will be taken up with MPs asking what the 'Scottish interest' on this matter is. What this means now, as I explained earlier, is that the measure is likely to fail. It is one thing to get 285 MPs in favour, but the SNP's numbers added to the 260 or so MPs who will vote against the measure make it very difficult for the pro-hunting camp.

Ever since Labour started having to respond to Tory policy announcements, there have been little fissures in the party over what sort of stance it should take on welfare. When Harriet Harman announced that the party was ‘sympathetic’ to lowering the £26,000 welfare cap for workless households, one leadership campaign told me it was no consulted before that policy changed and that ‘nothing Harriet does now is set (or written) in stone’.