Freddy Gray

The Donald Trump story and the Jeremy Corbyn story are same tale told by different countries. A political party reinvents itself in the 1990s, wins power, but then dishonestly drags its nation into a terrible war in Iraq. It becomes widely reviled. The party is still in power a few years later when the financial system collapses. The party takes desperate measures to keep the country's economy going – rescuing failed banks – but that in turn leads to more unpopularity and distrust among the public. It loses power. In opposition, the party's base – its core voters – starts to revolt. The party then loses another election. Then the party's grassroots have a chance to reject the party leadership, which they do.

The funniest thing about the lewd Donald Trump tape is how unshocking it is. It’s less of an 'October surprise' more of an 'October of course'. Everybody who knows anything about Trump knows that he is, to use a Donald favoured word, braggadocious about his sexual exploits. The newly unearthed video of him boasting of his sexual misadventures is embarrassing for him, of course, but it’s not much worse than what he said in his interviews with Howard Stern, which has been extensively reported. It will hurt his chances with women voters, and of course grumpy Republicans are using the story as an excuse to try another coup against him, but I can’t really imagine many American voters will be sitting at home today thinking: ‘What? Donald Trump is vulgar and sexist?

Welcome to The Spectator’s US Election 2016 site, brought to you in association with City Index. This will be home to the best British coverage of the biggest, maddest and baddest political event of the year. There has been no shortage of British coverage of the race to the White House in recent months; the world is gripped by the Donald Trump phenomenon. What’s been lacking, however, is shrewd, detailed analysis of what is actually happening in the American body politic — apart from, that is, on the pages on The Spectator. We’ve been the only British magazine to cover both Trump and Clinton intelligently and humorously.

Governor Mike Pence can debate -- who knew? Donald J Trump's running mate has been fairly invisible so far this election -- his star eclipsed by the great orange fireball that is Trump's ego. But in last night's vice-presidential debate, he shone. He was more political (in a good sense), more eloquent and more statesmanlike than his adversary. His performance was, in other words, the opposite of Trump's in last week's presidential debate. Tim Kaine, Hillary's vice-presidential pick, didn't do well. He seemed nervous and over-rehearsed: he fired off too many attack lines too quickly, and his tactic of always savaging Donald Trump rather than discussing the issues made him seem petty.

So, Donald Trump was being honest when he let it be known that he hadn't swotted up for the first presidential debate. He was horribly unprepared, and it showed. The great reality TV star put in a really bad live performance in front of 100 million-odd viewers. Hillary Clinton was Hillary Clinton – smug, annoying, not half as clever as she thinks. A better debater would have demolished Trump – he gave her enough opportunities -- but she did not. Still, she was well-drilled and she sounded professional. Trump sounded incoherent, even by his low standards. He made a complete mess of almost every point. Or, as one Republican insider put it to me in a text message, 'He shit the bed, rolled around in the sheets, then licked them clean.

Tonight’s first televised debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, on Long Island, New York, is expected to generate a 'Super-Bowlesque' audience. Analysts say that up to 112 million viewers could tune in, a figure that Donald Trump will interpret as an indication of his immense popularity. Even on this side of the Atlantic, a large number of people will stay up to the early hours (2am - 3.30am) to see the Donald versus Mrs C, such is the excitement surrounding the presidential election. So what can we expect? Here are six things to look out for: 1) Clinton will try so hard to appear healthy that she will end up looking mentally ill.

What if Hillary Clinton can’t run? It’s a question that must be asked, even if the New York Times and much of the American mainstream media has been unwilling to ask it. Until now, that is. Clinton’s collapse – or ‘medical episode’ – during a 9/11 memorial service has brought the issue of her health to everybody's attention. Americans will be asking themselves how, if she can’t make it through a memorial service, she will cope with the rigours of four years as Commander-in-chief. Moreover, the conspiracy of silence surrounding her health troubles does add to the general idea that the media and the Washington elite are willing to cover up, to mislead the public in order to win an election.

Donald Trump’s 'Summer Meltdown' appears to be over. The latest CNN poll puts him two points ahead of Hillary Clinton, which must come as a surprise to the many pundits who have been saying ‘it’s over’ after Clinton's polling improved over July and August, and the Donald’s deteriorated. It’s never been over. Hillary's 'Autumn Horror' could be just beginning. How could this be — when every headline about the US election screams that Trump has taken his extremism too far? Well, as I wrote in the magazine last week, never underestimate the power of Hillary Hate, which is a national pastime in America. It waxes and wanes like a tide.

To say Donald Trump ‘double-downed’ last night on his border rhetoric would be an understatement. He went full anti-illegal immigration throttle, and then some. ‘There will be no amnesty,’ he said, and he promised to deport criminal illegal aliens within one hour of his arrival in office. 'We will build a great wall along the southern border,’ he said. 'And Mexico will pay for the wall, 100 per cent. They don’t know it yet, but they’re going to pay for it.' He also invited on to the stage a group of women whose children have been killed by illegal immigrants, the 'Angel Moms’ — a typical, mawkish Trumpian touch. ‘If you don’t vote Trump, we won’t have a country,’ said one of the Moms.

Watch this clip of Donald Trump suggesting yesterday that gun-rights enthusiasts might kill Hillary Clinton, and tell me, seriously, that you think he is being serious. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czvVbdmP0bk Now watch Hillary Clinton in 2011 joking about the death of Gaddafi, and tell me -- honestly -- who is more sinister? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fgcd1ghag5Y 'We came, we saw, he died!' LOL! And tell us, Hillary -- what happened after that? Didn't Libya descend into chaos? Didn't the country become a jihadist hellpit, as well as a springboard for the refugee crisis? Yes, it did. How hilarious!

Hillary Clinton can count herself lucky to have Barack Obama cheerleading her bid for the presidency. The outgoing President is ending his time in power with high approval ratings. People still approve of him after all these years; like Hillary's husband Bill, Barack's presidency is ending on a high. And last night, at the Democratic Convention in Phili, he gave an absolute belter of speech supporting her claim to the White House. It was the speech progressives have been aching to hear. Mr Obama addressed the American people directly, when he said: 'Time and again, you've picked me up. I hope, sometimes, I picked you up, too. Tonight, I ask you to do for Hillary Clinton what you did for me. I ask you to carry her the same way you carried me.

You might find them abhorrent. You might think them stupid for having fallen for such a charlatan. You might be right on those counts. But you can't pretend that Donald Trump voters are all vicious fascists, because they aren't. Indeed, the most shocking aspect of the Trump fans I've met is their decency.  For all the doom peddling by people in my profession this week, there was no violence to speak of at the Cleveland Republican Convention this week -- from either pro or anti Trump gangs.  Thousands of journalists roamed the city, desperate  for trouble to report. Protestors burned an American flag, and people shouted at each other. But nothing bad happened. That I am sure was down to the huge 5,500 police presence in central Cleveland all week.

Donald Trump's speech tonight was not exactly poetry, but it was clear and surprisingly coherent. It was also clever, sort of. And it might just help him win the election in November. People find it disturbing, but Trump's anti-globalism, America First and law-and order-focus plays very well in America in 2016. Americans are less and less interested in hearing platitudes about 'freedom' these days; they want to hear banalities about law and order instead. Because they are more worried about civil breakdown and their economic security than anything else. Freddy Gray and Scott McConnell discuss the American tragedy with Isabel Hardman: After the text leaked a few hours before the speech, the big question was how would Trump deliver it? Would he be well-rehearsed?

After some confusion, it is confirmed: Donald Trump has picked Indiana Governor Mike Pence as his vice-presidential running mate. After the terrorist attack in Nice last night, the Trump campaign announced, somewhat melodramatically, that it had postponed its Veep announcement  ‘out of respect’. This led some pundits to suggest that all the reports yesterday saying that Trump had settled on Pence as his running mate had been misinformed. Well, they weren’t: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/753965070003109888 Mike Pence ticks a lot of right-wing boxes, and helps Trump appeal to old-fashioned Republican voters. Pence is a straight conservative, Reaganite figure. 'Get government out the way' is his core message.