Freddy Gray

Washington, DC The Bush family hates to lose. Yet Jeb Bush — child of one president; brother of another — must know that, barring a miracle, his bid for the White House has failed. In fact, it has been a disaster. Bush started out as overwhelming favourite. He had the Grand Old Party top brass behind him. He had all the money a candidate could wish for. But his candidacy just would not take off. His biggest problem, as everyone knows, is his name. After Iraq and the financial crash, the Bush brand is toxic. Bush tried reinventing himself as ‘Jeb!’, but that was a naff PR stunt. Jeb! was monstered by Donald Trump, who called him the ‘low-energy’ candidate. On Monday in Iowa, he got only 3 per cent of the vote.

What now for Hillary Clinton? The rumour in Washington last week was that, given her weak position in New Hampshire and the never-ending saga of her emails, if she lost in Iowa, Vice-President Joe Biden would enter the race and spare the blushes of the Democratic establishment. Well, Hillary didn't lose. But she didn't win either. She effectively drew with Bernie Sanders in last night's caucuses in Iowa. Which leaves her candidacy in limbo. Does she still have the confidence of the Democratic machine? Now that Hillary's hopes are in the balance, will Biden at last take the plunge and declare his candidacy? It is understood that, if he entered the race, Biden would have the support of his friend and ally Barack Obama.

Marco Rubio wins tonight in Iowa — by coming third. That, I suspect, will be the on dit among the commentariat this evening in America. And it might not be wrong. According to the latest polls, Rubio is the only candidate to have gained momentum in the run up to today’s caucuses. If the polls aren’t off — big if, I know — he should emerge as the only viable ‘establishment' candidate that can stop Trump or Cruz. He will emerge as the hope of the rational versus the irrational, the pragmatist’s choice against the stupid and crazy. At least that’s how the ‘narrative’, as strategists like to call it, could develop.

So, did Donald Trump outfox Fox? Shunning the crunch TV debate four days before the opening Iowa caucuses, setting up a rival show with CNN, and thumbing his nose at the most powerful right-of-centre media organisation in the world looked at first like madness. Then it looked like genius. And then, meh, well, who knows? At his rival Veterans event, Trump’s speech was bizarre as usual. “I’ve got to be honest I didn’t want to be here tonight,’ he said. ‘But you have to stick up for your rights when you are treated badly’. It’s difficult to know if Trump believes that his spat with Fox anchor Megyn Kelly — which is what he’s referring to — is the real reason he avoided the debate, or if he is deliberately conning his audience.

It’s easy to get carried away about televised political debates. But tonight’s Fox News/Google Republican Party showdown really could be a significant moment in American history. By ducking the debate, and picking a fight with Fox, Donald Trump appears ingeniously to have sucked all the media oxygen out of the event. All the headlines continue to be about Trump, and Fox can expect a ratings drop. The elephant in the room will be the elephant not in the room. Still, with less than four days to go until the opening Iowa caucuses, Trump's absence presents a major opportunity for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, the second and third-placed candidates in the polls. Without Trump dominating proceedings from centre stage, both men are bound to have chances to grab the limelight.

It sounds ridiculous, I know. The Grand Old Party, the party of Lincoln, could never want Donald Trump. Everybody knows that the ‘elite' wants Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush. Trump, with his crazy brew of vulgar populism and economic nationalism, is not their guy. The trouble is, as I wrote in my Spectator piece this week, Trumpmania has been knocking the Republican National Committee’s preferences flat — and the establishment candidates are doing a brilliant job of cancelling each other out. Some party bigwigs are therefore coming to terms with the idea of Trump. Major players behind Romney’s 2012 campaign are now reportedly 'trying to find their way into Trump’s orbit’.

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/donaldtrumpsrise-racismattheoscarsandcameronscentre-rightsecret/media.mp3" title="Freddy Gray and Janet Daley discuss Donald Trump's rise"] Listen [/audioplayer]Ronald Reagan wooed America with sunny optimism. From the offset, Donald Trump has offered something much darker. He began his presidential campaign on 16 June by declaring that the ‘American dream is dead.’ He said that the country was being run by ‘losers’. ‘We have people that don’t have it,’ he said. ‘We have people that are morally corrupt. We have people that are selling this country down the drain.’ He insisted that only he, Donald J. Trump, had what it took ‘to make America great again’.

Would you bet against Donald Trump becoming president? Lots of us have. British gamblers have reportedly put more than £1 million on Trump not reaching the White House. Put this down to the general loathing of 'the Donald’, plus a common sense instinct that, while Americans may be mad and/or stupid, they can’t be that mad and/or stupid. Most bookmakers have Trump at 4-1 to become president. At those odds, most pundits on either side of the pond would advise betting against. A more difficult question now is whether Trump can win the Republican nomination. Most UK bookmakers now price him at 6/4 or 15/8 for that market.

A bad night for Marine Le Pen, then, in France’s regional elections. Having been ahead in six regions in the first round last Sunday, her Front National appears now to have failed to win one. Cue lots of somewhat contrived jubilation from every right-thinking human on social media. Tonight does indeed represent a significant blow to Marine Le Pen’s presidential aspirations. Winning control of a region or two would have given FN the legitimacy it craves. The huge boost in voter turn out for the second round shows that, when push comes to shove, the French remain far more likely to come out and oppose her party than support it. But before liberals everywhere sound too triumphant, it’s worth reconsidering what has just happened.