Fraser Nelson

During the Brexit debate, there was a wide mainstream consensus that EU nationals living in Britain should not be affected. As even Ukip said, it would be unthinkable that someone here legally could later be declared illegal. Labour, the CBI, SNP, Vote Leave, pretty much everyone ruled out the disgusting idea of repatriating a single one of the three million EU nationals living in Britain. Or even putting them under the threat of repatriation. As Sajid Javid put it, they’re here because we need them – to work for the NHS, our other shops and businesses, to make our society stronger. During the referendum campaign this was not an issue because every single mainstream political party stood inside this consensus.

Today the Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, has launched a campaign telling the world that London is 'still open for business'.  He has announced a Twitter hashtag: #LondonisOpen. It’s an odd campaign, echoing the 'Britain is open for business' line that George Osborne was trying to peddle before being sacked. The premise seems to be that the Brexit vote was a disaster, but one we can recover from if we grit our teeth and adopt the spirit of the blitz. But the only people who thought that Brexit would somehow not mean being open for business were Osborne, Khan and others advocating Project Fear. Their gloom was outvoted by the optimism of Vote Leave. I’m sure that Mr Khan is very well-intentioned.

A few weeks ago, I wrote a Spectator cover story about David Cameron’s purge of the posh. My peg was a new wheeze from the Cameroons whereby prospective employees should be asked not just where they went to university, but about their childhood and parents’ assets etc. The idea was to make sure that too many posh people didn't make it to the top. Sinister, I argued, and not meritocratic. Judging people on their merits means not marking them down for being poor or posh. Inverted snobbery is still bigotry, and ought to be deplored as such. And yet the government was proposing rolling it out, first with the civil service and then.... ...

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We have three months until we get a new Prime Minister but I’m not sure we can wait so long for a new Chancellor. George Osborne’s silence was bad, but his re-emergence is even worse – as his pitiful article in today’s Wall Street Journal shows. It is written as if some awful tragedy had befallen Britain, and that this visibly battered country is appealing for American support. His job is to sell Britain, its people and the historic decision they have just made, rather than disparage it. Osborne’s article is here. Below is what he should have written. On 23 July, the people of Britain voted to leave the European Union – perhaps the single most momentous decision of my political lifetime.

On the way to interview Michael Gove, we meet a government minister, an Old Etonian, who suggests we ask him, ‘How can anyone trust you ever again?’ Just a fortnight ago, proposing such a question would have been unthinkable: the Justice Secretary had a reputation for being one of the most consistent, decent and honourable men in the cabinet. When Gove agreed to back Boris Johnson’s leadership bid, the pair seemed a dream team. But on the morning of their campaign launch, Gove announced that Johnson was unfit for the job, so he’d stand himself instead. Then, he was knocked out by Conservative MPs who were still recovering from the drama.

There has always been a faction of the Labour party that wanted Tony Blair in the dock for the Iraq war — no matter how pointless it would be. This was the sole purpose of the Chilcot inquiry. Gordon Brown agreed to it simply to assuage his backbenchers, and the whole exercise was intended to be more a mischievous distraction than an inquisition. But almost by accident, the inquiry has exposed the real scandal of Iraq: the appalling mismanagement of the war and the defeat of the British army, which left the people of Basra to the death squads. The WMD have become weapons of mass distraction. Mr Blair spent years answering questions about the case for war in Iraq, but he has answered far too few questions about the conduct of that war.

You know what to expect: Theresa May wins, Andrea Leadsom comes second. Liam Fox forced out today, Stephen Crabb probably joins him voluntarily leaving Michael Gove to fight with Leadsom for second place – or, perhaps, both dropping out to let May take the crown. You also know that the expected stopped happening in British politics some time ago. Andrea Leadsom bombed in the Tory hustings last night; one Tory MP present told me that he’d have been embarrassed to have delivered a speech of that quality to a golf club. She finished by saying she was standing to be party leader then added, in a quiet voice as if even she didn’t quite believe it, 'and also as Prime Minister'.

Appallingly, Philip Hammond has just echoed Theresa May’s threat to use the two Britain’s million European Union immigrant workers as bargaining chips in negotiation with Brussels. He said it would be "absurd" to say - as Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, Dan Hannan and Vote Leave members have said - that no EU national will be deported no matter what. Here's the exchange on the Today programme. Philip Hammond: “Neither EU nationals in Britain nor British nationals in EU countries will find any change to their circumstances over the next few years.” Nick Robinson: “Crucial words, though, isn’t it: “over the next few years.

Does Theresa May really understand Brexit? Speaking to Robert Peston today, the Home Secretary seemed to be entertaining the idea of deporting European nationals staying in Britain. Or, almost as bad, using them as collateral in some negotiation with Brussels: a deeply worrying and, to me, revolting suggestion. But coming from the Home Secretary, we have no choice but to take it seriously. Robert Peston: Now, there’s a lot of anxiety among migrants who’ve come here from the rest of the EU about whether they’ll be allowed to stay. There’s also quite a lot of anxiety among Brits living in the rest of Europe. What would you say to them?

Stephen Crabb has a 3pc chance of winning the Conservative leadership, according to to the bookmakers. Yes, the same ones who said there was a 10pc chance of David Cameron winning a majority and a 7pc chance of Brexit. The seemingly impossible is happening all the time in politics. The obstacles to his joint bid with Sajid Javid are obvious: lack of government experience, lack of MPs' support (he has 21 so far) and having supported Remain. This is the type of leadership bid aimed at putting down a marker. But for those who believe that this race ought to be as much about ideas as personalities, it's worth considering their arguments. Both are interested in blue-collar Conservatism, both have inspiring backstories in an era that regards politics as biography.

A few hours after voting started in the European Union referendum, Populus released its final opinion poll showing a ten-point lead for Remain. This carried weight because the founder of Populus, Andrew Cooper, was also pollster for the official Remain campaign. His findings had been passed to 10 Downing Street earlier, leading David Cameron and his team to become very confident. There were reports that the Prime Minister was not even going to stay up for the result: he intended to go to sleep early and wake up to victory. The vote for Brexit, by 52 per cent to 48 per cent, confounded the financial markets and wrongfooted most opinion pollsters. The telephone polls struggled; they gave undue weight to graduates, who disproportionally favoured Remain.