Alex Massie

Alex Massie

Christopher Hitchens Has Cancer

Bad news from Washington where Christopher Hitchens has announced that he's being treated for cancer of the oesophagus. Not good, not least because the survival rates aren't too pretty. As Christopher put it: "I have been advised by my physician that I must undergo a course of chemotherapy on my esophagus. This advice seems persuasive to me. I regret having had to cancel so many engagements at such short notice." Well, it would seem persuasive wouldn't it? One trusts and hopes he will rout it as utterly and completely as he enjoys setting about his foes in print. If you've not read them before, you can spend a very enjoyable afternoon browsing Hitch's back-catalogue of literary essays for the Atlantic. And of course there's his memoir too.

A Tory Case for Electoral Reform

David Aaronovitch's column today is excellent. He makes a case for David Cameron coming out and supporting the switch to the Alternative Vote. The key bit: The pessimism that Conservatives invariably express about their fortunes under electoral reform is based on a particular assumption about the British electorate — an assumption that belies their constant invocation of “the great ignored” or the silent majority. The assumption is that there is a natural majority for the Centre Centre Left in Britain, a majority that only the division of the two centre-left parties within the first-past-the-post system neutralises. So the current system operates (in Tory eyes) as a perpetual pro-Tory gerrymander. I don’t think this is true, and I never really have.

A Shocking, Startling Outbreak of Good Sense

Meanwhile, good sense vis a vis the criminal justice system is going viral at an alarming rate. At the Scottish Parliament MSPs voted  - 63-61 - to reject a (typically illiberal) Labour amendment (backed by the Tories too) that would have imposed mandatory six month prison terms for anyone found carrying a knife in a public place. And now they've only gone and endorsed a proposal that creates the presumption that prison sentences of fewer than three months are generally to be avoided on the reasonable grounds that they don't do much good for or to anyone. It's probably necessary, alas, to point out that opposing mandatory minimum sentences for carrying a blade does not mean one supports blade-carrying or stabbing.

Ken Clarke Is Right

Actually, Ken Clarke is one of the Good Tories. Indeed, one could spend some time speculating on how the Conservative party might have fared had it chosen him to lead it and not, say, Iain Duncan Smith. (Yes, there's europe but...) Obviously then, this means some people think he personifies everything that is wrong with the Conservative party and never mind that he was a better Chancellor than anyone who's held that job since. And so Clarke is right to argue that we should probably send fewer people to prison and thus I disagree - respectfully! - with the Spectator's editorial on the subject.

Are England Hopeless Underachievers?

A good question! Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski suggest not. Their argument, summarised by Tim Harford, runs more or less like this: - England do about as well as you’d expect, given their size, economic power, proximity to football’s “core” in Western Europe, and footballing history. That is, you’d expect them to usually make the last 16, sometimes make the last 8, occasionally make the last 4 and make the final very rarely. And they do. - Managers don’t make much difference to a team’s expected performance. Not even Fabio Capello. - There is no correlation between the qualifying performance (which in this particular campaign was outstanding) and the performance at the championship itself (which… well, the less said the better).

The Irish Economic Problem

Responding to this New York Times piece on Ireland's ecoomic woes Matt Yglesias, Ezra Klein, Kevin Drum and Steve Benen echo Paul Krugman and say: See, this just shows how stupid austerity measures are. And it's true, Ireland really is in a terrible hole and won't be getting out of it any time soon. As the article puts it: Nearly two years ago, an economic collapse forced Ireland to cut public spending and raise taxes, the type of austerity measures that financial markets are now pressing on most advanced industrial nations.

Karma

Yes, it might well, nay would, have changed the momentum of the game*. No, video technology is not needed (not least because it hasn't improved any game in which it has been introduced). And anyway, to adapt Wodehouse, what you gain on the roundabouts of 1966 you lose on the swings of 2010. Consider this, then, an open thread to moan about the World Cup:   *I didn't actually see it since I was playing cricket. Against Langholm. We won. I took, rather astonishingly, two wickets. It should have been three. Or even four. But that would be greedy and massively above and beyond expectations.

Saturday Morning Country: Josh Ritter

Occasionally, people complain that this series isn't contemporary enough and that it ignores the good country music that is still being produced in spite of the commercial interests of Nashville-pap. That's a fair criticism. So here's an acoustic version of Josh Ritter's Folk Bloodbath - a hymn to the murder ballad which is, as Radley Balko says, splendid and part of an album that merits your investment.

Afghan Hearts and Minds are Decided

A terrific, if gloomy, Afghanistan dispatch from William Dalrymple, published by our friends over at the New Statesman. I don't know how useful comparisons with the First Afghan War are but the psychology of occupation is a different matter: The following morning in Jalalabad, we went to a jirga, or assembly of tribal elders, to which the greybeards of Gandamak had come under a flag of truce to discuss what had happened the day before. The story was typical of many I heard about the current government, and revealed how a mixture of corruption, incompetence and insensitivity has helped give an opening for the return of the once-hated Taliban.

Salmond Accepts Reality

A very interesting interview with Il Tartanissimo in the Times today in which Salmond accepts, quite candidly, that independence isn't happening any time soon: “The centre of gravity in Scottish politics currently is clearly not independence,” he admitted. “You must campaign for what is good for Scotland as well as campaigning for independence.” A cynic - not that there are any of those around here - might argue that there's a contradiction in that second sentence but, in this instance, a cynic would be unfair on Eck. It's really quite rare to come across a politician being quite this candid about what is, after all, supposed to be his party's reason for being. Nor did this alarming outbreak of common sense stop there.

Billionaires for Immigration

I guess Michael Bloomberg and Co aren't necessarily the most sympathetic folks out there. But here, via Dave Weigel, is what Rupert Murdoch has to say about immigration: "We're just going to keep the pressure on the congressmen," Murdoch said. "I think we can show to the public the benefits of having migrants and the jobs that go with them." Sure, he's talking about the United States but the gist of the argument is the same here. Perhaps he could have a word with the editor of the Sun? Sure too, immigration is a non-runner given the current economic climate. But at some point we're going to need more workers. And they'll have to come from somewhere. Otherwise your kids and grandkids will be supporting so many pensioners they'll never be able to retire themselves.

What is Simon Hughes Playing At?

The Liberal Democrat's Deputy Leader (that still seems a strange thing to type) and tribune of the left seems to be on manoeuvers. Apparently: When it comes to the Budget next week, we will vote for the budget. But if there are measures in the Finance Bill where we could improve fairness and make for a fairer Britain, then we will come forward with amendments to do that, because that’s where we make the difference, as we will in the spending review which will follow in the months ahead. Well then! On the face of it this is a rum approach and one, I think, that is unlikely to end well for either Hughes or his ambitions. The public, according to the polling anyway, seem quite content with the budget.

Growing up on Struggle-Street

Tom Switzer knows much more about Australian politics than I ever will, so I commend his post on Kevin Rudd's downfall to you. (For an alternative take see John McTernan here.) What I would say, mind you, is that it's a bad idea for a Prime Minister to abandon his signature issue simply because the going gets a little bit tough. That's what Rudd did on climate change legislation* however and, frankly, even from a distance of many thousands of miles, one can see why his stock would struggle to recover from that debacle. Anyway, let's talk about journalism and political terminology. Reading the accounts of Australia's latest political shenanigans one can't help but be impressed by the flinty prose used by the Aussie press.

The Camerlegg Show

Like James, I thought David Cameron performed well in his "Face the Audience" appearance explaining the budget yesterday. I also think the Prime Minister and his Deputy should do more of these "Meet and Explain" events and, yes, they should do them together. If Cameron was persuasive then Nick Clegg was also excellent, not least since, again, a BBC journalist did his best to find some daylight between Clegg and Cameron. [Transcript here, incidentally.] You can quibble with some of what they said and, for that matter, honestly disagree with much of it too.

The McChrystal Affair

Yesterday there was some chatter that the smart thing would be for General Stanley McChrystal to offer his resignation but for President Barack Obama to decline it. That had the advantage of cuteness, but I'm not sure it was ever feasible and not least because, as best I can tell, the more military-minded an observer is the more certain they were that the general had to go. It is not, evidently, an ideal situation. Of course it isn't, it's Afghanistan. Nevertheless, from both a political and military perspective replacing McChrystal with General David Petraeus is as close to a win-win result as its possible to salvage from this clusterfuck brouhaha. It covers the President on both fronts.

Facebook is Popular, So When Can We Start Banning It?

For those of you not watching the football (England 1-0 up at the moment, incidentally, and so just one blunder from being plunged back into the slough of despond) consider this question, asked by the Irish Labour MEP Nessa Childers: There has been an explosion in the usage of this online social networking tool across Europe: unfortunately many people have crossed the line from social networking to social dysfunction. This is a real health issue and I am calling upon the Commission to take action. Visiting your Facebook page frequently actually causes what psychologists refer to as ‘intermittent reinforcement’. Notifications, messages and invitations reward you with an unpredictable high, much like gambling. That anticipation can get dangerously addictive.

Labour’s Category Error

Have you been impressed by Labour's response to their election defeat? Hmmm. Next question: is anyone listening to Labour's complaints that the Liberal Democrats have "betrayed" themselves and everything that is nice and sweet and wholesome about this pleasant land? Best move on from that one too. Sunny Hundal makes a good argument that, at the very least, it is much too soon for Labour to be taking this line. It's a good post but it misses one trick, I think: Labour continue to suffer from the category error of believing that liberals are really Labour voters who don't quite realise this. But this is not the case and it's quite evident that Nick Clegg is no Charles Kennedy.

New Politics, Same Old Media

When Jeremy Paxman grilled Danny Alexander on Newsnight yesterday he spent most of his time on politics, not economics. Fair enough. That's what the media does and one wouldn't expect it any other way. But it was the type of attack Paxman employed that was both mildly interesting and futile. This was because Paxman decided to tear into Alexander and attack him for all the things in the budget that weren't in the Liberal Democrat manifesto. Some of them, as Paxo pointed out time and time again, were actively opposed by the Lib Dems. Gotcha! Hypocrites! Why, he sneered, should anyone ever listen to anything you have to say in the future, far less take it seriously? In as far as it went it was effective. Unfortunately it didn't go very far.

Osborne’s Finest Hour?

Like many people, I've rarely been wholly convinced by George Osborne. So let it be said that this budget was perhaps his finest hour. Happily, there is something for everyone to complain about. It would be wrong if this were not the case. I suppose Osborne could have avoided putting up VAT (to 20%) had he not exempted the National Health Service from the consequences of his axe-wielding. Politically, however, one can see why this was a gamble too far. Nevertheless, this was, on the face of it, a good budget. Four out of every five pounds in savings come from spending restraint, not tax rises and this seems to strike the right balance.