Alex Massie

Alex Massie

Barack Obama is Re-Elected President of the United States – Spectator Blogs

Well, I was wrong. I thought Mitt Romney might do rather better than it seems he has. As I type this CNN has just called Ohio for Barack Obama, confirming that the President will be re-elected to serve a second term as President of the United States. It looks as though Nate Silver's projections are off too: with Obama looking likely to win Virginia and Florida it seems as though the President will do better - at least in terms of the Electoral College - than even the much-criticised Mr Silver predicted. Add a series of crushing blows to the GOP in Senate races from Massachusetts to Missouri and you have a dreadful night for the Republican party. This is worse than a defeat; it's a calamity. For Obama this is a historic night.

Presidential Predictions: Barack Obama 294 Mitt Romney 244 – Spectator Blogs

Asked my prediction a few days ago, I looked at all the possibilities and plumped for Obama 294, Romney 244. This is tediously in the middle of the general range of possible outcomes and therefore not the kind of wild-assed, long-shot punt anyone can occasionally ride to more fame than they merit. Sometimes even lousy gamblers or poker players get lucky. Anyway: I think Barack Obama will lose Indiana , North Carolina, Colorado and Florida to Mitt Romney but hang on in New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Virginia and Ohio. That would leave this map, drawn from the excellent 270 To Win. Like the rest of us, I'm guessing here. But it's only reasonable to publish those guesses. So what's yours? Leave your best guess in the comments.

Barack Obama Deserves A Second Term – Spectator Blogs

No matter the result of today's Presidential election, it will not be Morning in America tomorrow. Of course the successful candidate will talk of America's essential greatness. He will promise a fresh era of co-operation and respect in Washington (this time for real). Hope will be on the agenda and perhaps, if the final polls of this poll-driven election are mistaken, change will be too. But neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney are well-positioned to deliver either hope or change. This has not been a happy campaign in a happy country and, regardless of the result, there will be no fresh political dawn tomorrow. The path ahead is tough and unremitting and the next President has less room for manoevre - or error - than either campaign has been modest enough to admit.

Annals of Hurricane Deprivation: Wall Street Edition

Hats-off to Bloomberg's Max Abelson for this delicious, bone-dry report on how Wall Street's finest have coped with the impact of Hurricane Sandy. Wall Street turned to Bordeaux, sushi and faxes as Hurricane Sandy wreaked the most havoc in the history of the city’s transit system and closed stock markets on consecutive days for the first time for weather since 1888. “I had to go to the wine cellar and find a good bottle of wine and drink it before it goes bad,” Murry Stegelmann, 50, a founder of investment-management firm Kilimanjaro Advisors LLC, wrote in an e-mail after he lost power at 6 p.m. on Oct. 29 in Darien, Connecticut.

The Continental Divide: Why are Red States So Red and Blue States So Blue? – Spectator Blogs

So, for the third time in the last four American elections it looks as though this contest is gonna be a close one. As in 2004, however, the narrow-but-significant advantage still lies with the incumbent President. Indeed it is possible that this is one of those rare occasions in which the electoral college actually hurts the Republican candidate. Be that as it may, the United States remains pretty evenly divided between its Blue and Red teams. Steven Pinker delves into history and anthropology in an attempt to explain why, as he puts it, "ideology and geography cluster so predictably?

Did America bring Hurricane Sandy upon itself? – Spectator Blogs

Apparently so. You can always count on the British left to sneer at the United States. (You can count on quite a bit of the British right to do so too.) According to Jon Snow, the veteran Channel 4 news presenter, the United States should probably recognise that it brought Hurricane Sandy on itself. If he stops just short of saying America had it coming that's the pretty clear implication of his latest dispatch: This is the wrong season for hurricanes to hit so far north. What has brought this upon what is – at times, and in some places – the most sophisticated nation on earth? Has what is still the most energy-consuming country in the world brought this on itself to any extent?

The Republican party didn’t leave Michael Bloomberg. He was never really in it. – Spectator Blogs

If two things could have been predicted about Hurricane Sandy it was that, first, far too many people would waste time pondering the likely impact of the storm upon next week's presidential elections and, second, that someone would look upon Mayor Michael Bloomberg's steady leadership and ask why he's not running for President. I had not, however, expected my old friend (and former boss) Iain Martin to be one of those bemoaning Bloomberg's absence from the national fray. Far less had I expected him to suggest that Bloomberg should have been theRepublicannominee this year. Say what you will about Mitt Romney but he is at least a conservative. Michael Bloomberg is not and never has been. Asking that the Republican party be a bit more like Mike is akin to asking it to be a liberal party.

Trident: political football, folly, or matter of principle? – Spectator Blogs

Philip Hammond is one of those ministers who seems to be held in greater esteem by those inside the Westminster hamlet than those of us who live beyond its boundaries. Westminster's natives may, of course, be right, but it is striking how often the Secretary of State for Defence prefers to cast his arguments in terms of economics rather than, well, defence. He's at it again today. Mr Hammond is popping in to the nuclear submarine base at Faslane where he will "announce" that the government is splashing another £350m on the next phase of the mission to replace Britain's Trident nuclear missiles. For reasons best known to himself, the Secretary of State seems to think this will make some difference to the arguments about Scotland's constitutional future.

Will David Cameron grant Northern Ireland control of corporation tax? – Spectator Blogs

Monday morning in dreich late October. What more appropriate moment to ponder the questions of corporation tax and Northern Ireland? The question of whether the Northern Ireland Assembly should control the rate of corporation tax payable in the two-thirds of Ulster for which it is responsible won't go away, you know. Nor, despite the fact that the London press has paid little attention to it, is this some local matter of no importance to the rest of the United Kingdom either. On the contrary, David Cameron's decision on this seemingly-arcane or merely local matter is more important than it seems and, in fact, one of the more significant questions demanding his attention right now.

A lesson for Alex Salmond from George Orwell

I've written a piece for today's Scotsman noting that there are some parallels between Scotland's independence stushie and the pre-Iraq War rammy a decade ago. Only this time it's the nationalists who are, if you will allow the comparison, the neoconservatives. Just as pro-war advocates back then (and I was one of them) cheerfully labelled anyone who opposed the war of being "objectively pro-Saddam" so the nationalists today essentially argue that anyone opposed to independence is anti-Scottish and, implicitly, objectively so. This is as tedious as it is stupid and the kind of thing liable to further hamper the party's already faltering attempts to win what the Americans call high information voters (that is: those on above-average incomes).

Lancashire police taser a blind man: he’s lucky to be alive. Others will not be so fortunate. – Spectator Blogs

How hard can it be to tell the difference between a samurai sword and a white cane? Relatedly, how difficult is to be accepted as the kind of person qualified to serve as a member of the Lancashire police? The news that a 61-year old blind man was tasered by police searching for a "suspect" seen carrying a samurai sword through the wild and mean streets of Chorley, Lancashire should surprise no-one. Colin Farmer, the victim of this assault, is fortunate to be alive. Granted, the police officer responsible for tasering him could not know Mr Farmer had twice suffered strokes but how hard can it really be to avoid tasering an old man? Plenty hard, apparently. The specifics of this particular case are appalling but they should not astonish anyone.

Barack Obama wins the second presidential debate – Spectator Blogs

Barack Obama won the second of the three Presidential debates last night but he did not beat Mitt Romney as thoroughly as he had been beaten by the challenger in their first encounter. If you were compiling an aggregate score for the debates so far the President would still be behind. I doubt Republicans will react to this modest reverse for Romney's fortunes with the kind of panic that liberals embraced two weeks ago. The Democratic meltdown helped turn a setback into a rout. Suddenly momentum - whatever that is - was with Romney and it was easy for Republican raiding parties to mop up Democratic stragglers and put them to the sword. Discipline matters in victory but it matters even more in defeat. In truth, Romney's fightback had begun - albeit slowly - before the first debate.

Gary McKinnon should have been extradited – Spectator Blogs

See them there? That's Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne rallying for Gary McKinnon before the last election. This alone should have been enough to persuade the Daily Mail to rethink its mighty campaign on behalf of Mr McKinnon. Apparently not, however, and so the Home Secretary today passed her responsibilities to Paul Dacre and bravely agreed with the editor of the most powerful newspaper in Britain. Accordingly, Gary McKinnon will not be extradited to the United States. Technically, Mrs May found that extraditing Mr McKinnon would breach his human rights.

Boris Johnson and Alex Salmond: Unlikely political twins? – Spectator Blogs

Here's David Torrance with the kind of acute observation I wish I'd thought of first. There is, he writes, a comparison to be drawn between Alex Salmond and Boris Johnson: [Salmond's] approval ratings also remain remarkably high, but then Salmond enjoys a very specific sort of popularity. Asked who best “stands up for Scotland” he wins hands down, but if voters are asked if they agree with his vision for an independent Scotland then it’s two-to-one against. So Scots like Alex Salmond, but they only like him in a particular setting. That context is the halfway house between full government and opposition otherwise known as devolution.

Devolution has failed Scotland’s children. Can independence change that? – Spectator Blogs

Yesterday Fraser asked: Scotland has a tragically long list of problems (especially with inner-city poverty) and [the No campaign] can ask: which of these problem would independence solve? This is a fair question, albeit one that offers the retort: and which of them are being solved by the Union the noo? Of course, this question was asked before devolution too. In broad terms, Alex Salmond has the same range of powers as those enjoyed by Secretaries of State for Scotland in the pre-devolution age. Not all of those have been used. Devolution was essentially the democratisation of existing administrative devolution that, quite properly, already took account of Scotland's distinct place within the United Kingdom.

Scottish independence referendum: at long last the phoney war comes to an end – Spectator Blogs

So now's the day and now's the hour at which, if you will forgive the mixed allusions, we may discern the beginning of the end of the beginning. Eight months of often tedious wrangling ends this afternoon as David Cameron and Alex Salmond agree some kind of "deal" to fix the terms and conditions of Scotland's independence referendum. At long last the phoney war is coming to an end. And not before time. There is talk of this being a historic day and, well, I suppose you can think it that if you want to. Most Scots, I hazard, simply want the warring parties to get on with things. (I fancy this sentiment is likely to be held even more strongly by Englishmen already tired of all this Caledonian wrangling.) Still, it's a good start to the SNP's conference week.

British politics returns to normal: Blue vs Red with Yellow on the touchline – Spectator Blogs

British politics is returning to normal. The two-party system is back. That, it seems to me, is the chief conclusion to be drawn from this year's conference season*. The opposition have been supplanted by Labour and we're back to the familiar sight of watching the Conservatives and Labour knock lumps out of one another. It is not just that the Lib Dem conference seems to have taken place months ago (though it's partly that) but that the guest list for the next general election has been agreed and Nick Clegg's party isn't on it. The Liberal Democrats? Who they? For a long time now, the government has been weakened by the failure to resolve the tensions at the heart of the coalition.

David Cameron to Ed Miliband: Come and have a go, if you think you’re hard enough – Spectator Blogs

For months now, David Cameron and his government have been pursued around the ring. Chased by Labour and harassed by events they have often been caught on the ropes. Off-balance and out of position Cameron has struggled to respond to Labour's jabs. No wonder he's behind on points. The Prime Minister's speech to the Conservative party conference this morning was a counter-attack. Cameron has had enough of running; now he means to stand in the centre of the ring and trade blows with the opposition. It will be a rare old tear-up. Those who say this was a speech delivered to his party, not his country are, I think, mistaken. This was Cameron's clearest declaration of principle in years. A pugilistic defence of his ideas and his politics.

Dr Liam Fox on what voters want: anything but the truth?

Dr Liam Fox is no dummie so I'm not sure quite what he means when, as reported by Isabel, he told Tories gathered at a Carlton Club fringe event: What I want is to see us keeping faith with the British people and I want to see us having a slogan at the next election which says ‘Back to a Common Market’, back to an economic and trading relationship with Europe that parks all the political interference in the running of our economy, our workplace, our legal system and all the other things that we don’t like.’ How, pray, is this going to work? Dr Fox surely knows that much of the "interference" to which he objects are laws, directives and other regulations designed to improve, broaden, manage or otherwise regulate the Common Market of which he is so enthused.

Scottish Tory Leader to Scots: Drop Dead – Spectator Blogs

These days, alas, the only time the leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party makes it onto the front pages of the nation's newspapers is if she's made some almighty blunder. Sadly, Ruth Davidson's speech to a fringe meeting in Birmingham this week was a calamity. That's the subject of my latest Think Scotland piece: Ruth Davidson's suggestion, made during an appearance at a fringe event in Birmingham this week, that, in effect, most Scots spend their lives suckling on the government teat is not, I'm afraid, a helpful one.