US economy

They say three times makes a pattern. So what should we make of the President’s trade agreements, three of which he confirmed this week, as the August 1 deadline for "reciprocal tariffs” looms?  If there remained any confusion about his agenda, he helpfully laid it out in all caps. “I WILL ONLY LOWER TARIFFS IF A COUNTRY AGREES TO OPEN ITS MARKET. IF NOT, MUCH HIGHER TARIFFS!” he wrote on Truth Social. “USA BUSINESSES WILL BOOM!” Given the size of the lettering, and the similarities to the deals secured with Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan this week, we should take Donald Trump at his word on this one. Put simply: so long as other countries cut taxes for their businesses, he will hike taxes on American businesses ever so slightly less.

“TARIFFS WILL START BEING PAID ON AUGUST 1, 2025,” Donald Trump shared on Truth Social this morning. “There will be no change... No extensions will be granted. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” It’s a rather definitive statement from the President. But we’ve been here before. The original 90-day extension of “reciprocal tariffs” (better described as trade deficit figures with a percentage symbol attached) was also supposed to be a hard deadline. The President suggested only last week that there were no plans to push implementation back again. But here we are: a new date, a new deadline and a mixed market reaction.

The morning of President Trump’s 100th day in office brought fresh tariff melodrama with the coffee, eggs and toast, as a report emerged suggesting Amazon was considering listing the exact cost of a US tariff surcharge next to all goods purchased on the site. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt immediately snarled from the podium that this was a “hostile and political act,” though it was really neither hostile nor political. Regardless, Amazon immediately rolled it back, claiming the story had been misreported by Punchbowl News.  “The team that runs our ultra low-cost Amazon Haul store has considered listing import charges on certain products,” a spokesman said.

“Don’t be a PANICAN,” the President shared on his Truth Social account this morning, as the Dow was dropping 900 points. This is Donald Trump’s new word for his tariff critics, who he has grouped together as the “new party based on Weak and Stupid people!” There is another way, the President insists: “Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!” It’s another post in a long line of all-caps messages shared by the President over the weekend. “ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL!” was Friday’s update. “WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH,” was Saturday’s inspirational message.

The first thing revealed by the high and wide-ranging new tariffs President Trump announced on “Liberation Day” is just how limited other recent American presidents have been in their thinking. Their ambition was to get elected and re-elected, then retire comfortably into a tranquil post-presidency. They would finish their days lending their names to charities and writing their memoirs (or rather, commissioning ghostwriters to fulfill their publishing contracts).   The idea of destroying and remaking the global economic order never crossed their minds. But Trump is thinking bigger. He doesn’t want to go to his grave as just another has-been ex-president.

Could it be that Donald Trump actually wants a bear market now? At some point, one was bound to happen on his watch — after all, US equities weren’t going to keep up their stunning gains from the past two years for the rest of his term. A market correction was inevitable, and it seems we’ve already seen that, as the S&P 500 dipped into correction territory this week. And a bear market was almost certainly coming, given that there have been 27 of them in the S&P index since 1928. Hartford Funds provides a good summary here, showing that the average decline in a bear market is 35 percent, and they typically last 9.6 months. By contrast, the average bull market lasts 2.6 years, with prices rising 110 percent. Overall, bear markets occur about every 3.

The Great Resignation continues, with a new study revealing that employees in many industries are quitting at higher rates than 2021. Accommodation and food services lost 5.8 percent of its workforce — 773,600 workers — in 2022, an increase of about 128,000 over the same period in 2021. Retail lost 3.82 percent, or about 600,000 workers, though this is 109,000 fewer than the same period in 2021. In third is the entertainment sector at 3.58 percent, accounting for 82,200 jobs, rising 7,000 compared to 2021. These industries happen to be where employees are in closest contact with customers — which would probably cause Cockburn to quit too, given how rude folks can be. Manufacturing and mining, by contrast, saw 2.42 and 2.3 percent respectively.

Economic news over the last few months has been bleak. Whether it’s inflation, supply chain disruptions, or the threat of recession, worrying news abounds. But among the headlines, there was a topic that briefly bubbled to the surface before being all but forgotten: a potential strike by the country’s railroad workers. Amtrak, in anticipation, canceled all cross-country routes, but Labor Secretary Marty Walsh averted a strike at the eleventh hour by negotiating quite literally through the night to find an agreement with the workers. It’s easy to forget about rail. In a time when inflation and potential recession are dominating headlines, transportation issues just don’t seem as interesting.

Since its postwar rise, the American conservative movement has staked its reputation on defending the free market as an abiding principle. Conservatives pointed to the liftoff in the American economy caused by the Reagan tax revolution and the deregulation of heavily controlled parts of the economy. Less government and less regulation were better for the American economy. The left disagreed with this fundamental axiom of conservative wisdom. Now, surprisingly, many on the right have joined them. Something obviously changed in the post-Cold War period. China’s entry to the World Trade Organization in 2001 resulted in the so-called China Shock, or the loss of 15 to 20 percent of manufacturing jobs in America.