Uk politics

The most damaging thing that Theresa May did last week was to turn on MPs in her Downing Street statement, blaming them for the Brexit chaos. Given how settled Westminster seems to be on this conclusion, you might expect the Prime Minister to have tried to mend broken bridges in her Commons statement this afternoon. That she didn't underlines why so much of this mess is her own responsibility. May was not strident, but neither was she making any attempt to mollify MPs. Indeed, her only attempt to engage with MPs' role in this involved yet another lecture about the number of chances they had been given to put amendments down for a second referendum, and that any attempts to stop Brexit was 'not respecting the voters and not respecting our democracy'.

Will Theresa May make it to the end of the week? It's a question that's been asked before of the Prime Minister but this time the situation is more serious. After a disastrous few days in which May lost the support of her whips, Remain MPs and Brexiteers, the Sunday papers report that a Cabinet coup is underway. Backbench MPs are publicly taking to Twitter to say the Prime Minister's time is up – while a number of ministers are preparing to confront her on Monday. Given that ministers have a tendency to exhibit more bravery in anonymous Sunday paper briefings than real life meetings, it's not a definite that they will follow through on their threats. However, it's increasingly difficult to see a way through for the Prime Minister.

After eight hours of talks between EU leaders, Theresa May has been granted an Article 50 extension. If the Prime Minister can pass her deal next week, there will be technical extension until 22 May. If the deal fails to pass, Article 50 will be extended only until 12 April so that the UK can set out its next steps – and potentially apply for a longer extension. This offer appears to give backbenchers time to try and – once again – seize control of the process if May fails to pass her deal. The Prime Minister's problem is when it comes to meeting the first condition of the 22 May offer, she is going backwards rather than forwards.

Theresa May heads to Brussels today to plead for an Article 50 extension. The expectation is that EU leaders will only grant one on the condition her deal passes next week on a third vote. This is looking increasingly hard to do following May's No. 10 statement last night. In an address to the nation, the Prime Minister attempted to lay the blame on MPs – rather than herself – for the fact that it is now very unlikely the UK will leave the EU at the end of March. May said it was a matter of deep 'personal regret' to her and went on to add: 'All MPs have been willing to say is what they do not want. I passionately hope MPs will find a way to back the deal I have negotiated with the EU. A deal that delivers on the result of the referendum and is the very best deal negotiable.

This evening, Jeremy Corbyn walked out of a meeting between opposition party leaders and the Prime Minister about Brexit. The reason for his angry protest had nothing to do with what was being discussed, but his distaste for one of the attendees. Former Labour MP Chuka Umunna was there to represent the Independent Group, and this, according to those present, was too much for the Labour leader to stomach. Labour has since said the the terms of the meeting had changed and that this wasn't what Corbyn had agreed to when he said he would meet the Prime Minister in her office. But this is an impressive own goal, even by the Labour leader's standards.

When I quit investment banking in search of daylight in 2014 I thought my life was going to be little easier crunching numbers for political campaigns. It wasn’t to be. Over the last few years, I’ve worked on the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, the 2015 general election, the Scottish Holyrood election in 2016, the EU referendum and the 2017 snap election. What I’ve never been able to wrap my head around through all these campaigns is why we’ve seen so many political upsets. Just why has the political consensus been wrong so often these past five years? When I worked on the Remain campaign, the upending of the consensus – against my own expectations – was a painful experience.

No. 10’s strategy to win over the DUP and the Brexiteers to Theresa May’s deal in time for a third vote has hit a wall. It's not that the talks have stopped – if anything they're going fairly well. Instead, the Speaker of the Commons has thrown a spanner in the works by suggesting that the vote may never happen. Bercow has used a statement to the House to say that he will not permit a third meaningful vote on the deal to take place – unless there are substantial changes to the deal on the table. Bercow surprised the government with the impromptu statement.

Is this the week Theresa May sets out an exit date for her departure from No. 10? There is hope in government that this will be the week the Prime Minister passes her Brexit deal. However, the price of her doing so could include a promise to resign before the second stage of negotiations begin later this year. No. 10 are working to try and ensure May passes her deal before this week's EU council meeting where she has to try and seek an Article 50 extension. In a bid to try and do this, ministers have been locked in talks with the DUP all weekend on what could be done to make the deal palatable to them.