Uk politics

Friday

Mark Bathgate

The perfect storm

The UK debt crisis has three constituent parts – household, government and banking. The fact that households, government and banks all went on a debt binge at the same time makes the risks for the UK economy so unusual.  The European Commission is now estimating that total UK Government debt will rise above £1.3trillion by the end of 2011, representing a more than trebling in the total debt load since 1997. If interest rates normalise to the 5% or so seen during recoveries in previous cycles, this will see the interest service bill alone rise to around £65billion a year – more than double the total defence budget.

Thursday

David Blackburn

Nursing is the new Media Studies

Administering injections is not an academic process. Like construction and policing, nursing is an essential professional and appropriate training is a pre-requisite. Procedures must be mastered and techniques known by rote. 2 year nursing diplomas have always provided that function effectively. Academic degrees develop critical intellect, something I’m sure nurses will appreciate as individuals but which will add nothing to their professional skill. Melanie Phillips argues that ‘nursing has been in the grasp of an ultra-feminist orthodoxy which regards the essence of nursing as demeaning to women.’ The plan is to furnish nursing with an equivalent status to doctors.

David Blackburn

Electoral fraud

“Postal voting on demand is lethal to the democratic process. Wholesale electoral fraud is both easy and profitable.” That statement sounds like a description of Afghan electoral practices, but it was delivered by Richard Mawrey QC after an inquest into UK postal voting.   The Orange Party blog has an intriguing post about the sudden surge in postal ballots for the finally convened Glasgow North East by-election. Now, the Orange Blog may be being mischievous or merely preposterous, but it suggests that fraud could be a factor. History shows that Labour benefit from postal voting, notably at the comfortable Glenrothes by-election victory last year, when every indication was that the SNP would overturn the majority.

Daniel Korski

No Brits likely in top EU jobs

The process to pick the two new EU jobs - that of Council President and High Representative - is nearing completion and Britain looks set to walk away empty-handed. Tony Blair's candidacy is unacceptable to many EU leaders - both because of his record, particularly over the Iraq War, and because of Britain's odd-man status in Europe. Last night at the Queen's Diplomatic Reception, a senior ambassador remarked to me that if Blair had really wanted the EU job, he should have started lobbying for it a few years ago - or at least shown a post-No 10 interest in European affairs. Blair, said the envoy, could have given a speech in Berlin, an interview in a French paper and so on. But he did not.

David Blackburn

British jobs for British workers

Further to Alan Johnson’s immigration statement on Monday, Gordon Brown will give a speech on the topic. The intention is to re-engage with core voters who have defected to the BNP. In an interview with the Mail, Brown acknowledged that the public were right to be concerned, especially in times of economic uncertainty and hardship. Brown is expected to tighten migrant employment controls so that migrants are only used where there are labour shortages. He will strengthen the ‘Labour Market Test’ by extending vacancy exclusivity for UK citizens from 2 weeks to a month, and pledges to retrain British workers. The proposals are welcome and the rhetoric is tough, giving some weight to the maligned call of ‘British jobs for British workers’.

Wednesday

Lloyd Evans

Parallel universe

Armistice Day suits Brown down to the ground. When everyone is obliged wear funeral-director garb, his grey hair and sombre jowls fit the mood perfectly while Dave’s polished and youthful glow looks a trifle out of place.  Gordon performed confidently at PMQs today. So did Dave, as it happens, but the skirmish came to nothing because neither was prepared to fight on the ground chosen by the other. Dave led on the youth unemployment figures. He wanted Brown to admit that his promise ‘to abolish youth unemployment’ had failed. Brown ignored this and took comfort from the thought that without Labour’s policies even more youngsters would be out of work. Dave went into sci-fi mode and told the PM he was ‘living in a parallel universe.

James Forsyth

An impossible position

The moment that stuck out for me from today’s PMQs came right towards the end, the exchanges between the leaders were not particularly enlightening. Gerald Howarth, a member of the Tory defence team, rose from the backbenches to tell the House of an email he had received from a friend of one of those men killed in Afghanistan in recent days saying that the coalition is winning there. Howarth asked the PM to help spread this positive message — prompting Labour cries of ‘tell The Sun.’ But in his reply, Brown conspicuously did not say that we were winning. Instead, he concentrated on paying tribute to the bravery of the British forces serving there.

Daniel Korski

Helicopter reality

There is something oddly comforting about discussing NATO’s Afghan mission in terms of kit, helicopters and troop numbers - or the lack thereof. These are tangible categories. You either have the right amount or you don't. And if you don't, then it is because somebody made the wrong decision or failed to make a timely one. Even Mrs Janes, grief-stricken after the killing of her son, seems to take some comfort in the question of equipment while Liam Fox has made much political capital of the Government’s failures. There are just two problems with this kind of approach to warfare. First, the stories in the press about helicopters take precedence over reality. Has the government cut the defense budget? Yes. Did it for a long time run on a peacetime budget and on SOPs? Yes.

David Blackburn

The centre left asks how? Well, here’s how

The One Nation sentiments that David Cameron expressed at last night’s Hugo Young lecture have been almost uniformly applauded. Labour’s sneers about Cameron being an uber-Thatcherite are isolated from mainstream. Only Johann Hari dissents, suggesting that because Cameron is an OE and comfortably off it follows that ‘he has never known’ a poor person. Of course, if Cameron were the re-incarnation of Lord Salisbury, then Dave would have ample understanding of, and who knows perhaps even intimacy with, the various retainers, ostlers, scullery maids and farriers in his employ. Patricians have long since retired to enjoy what’s left of their estates, and Cameron’s sentiments are genuine and inflect his politics, simple as that.

David Blackburn

On the road to recovery? Don’t be daft

I’d forgotten what it felt like to read positive news about the British economy. To be honest life is full of much more thrilling experiences, but my lack of enthusiasm is partially explained by the fact that a 6,000 employment rise is not proof of recovery. That half the population of Cranleigh have found employment over three months is seen as salvation puts Britain’s economic reality firmly into perspective. If you delve into the Labour Market Statistics the picture becomes clear. Unemployment was expected to rise and will continue doing so, but the employment figure is an anomaly. Britain is still visibly contracting, albeit at a decelerating rate. Vacancies fell by 1,000 and have never been at a lower level since records began in 2001.

David Blackburn

Would David Miliband make a good leader?

David Miliband’s decision not to be a candidate for EU Foreign Minister has inspired an almost vociferous article from Daniel Finkelstein. He writes: ‘The Lisbon treaty is your work as much as anyone’s. You pushed it through and you told everyone that it really mattered. You’ve been making speeches on the importance of the new job as EU foreign minister. You’ve said it is an essential tool of influence. Yet now — now — you tell me that you don’t actually want to do it yourself.’ Clearly Miliband wants a crack at the leadership, and the thrust of Finkelstein’s argument is that Miliband isn’t up to leading the opposition. ‘One other thing you need to think about.

Tuesday

David Blackburn

A chance for parliament to re-assert itself

This afternoon, I had the great privilege of hearing Geoffrey Robertson QC and Sir Ken MacDonald QC argue why English libel law must be reformed. Up to this point I had, along with most of the audience I suspect, assumed that reform would only benefit journalists. I suppose that illustrates just how narcissistic the profession is because now I see that libel reform is essential for the preservation free speech and the sanctity of English law. As Geoffrey Robertson put it, “We do not have free speech in this country, we have expensive speech.” English libel actions cost several million pounds to fight – 140 times more than the European average. Libel is the preserve of the rich, the ultimate private members’ club.

Mark Bathgate

Two elementary mistakes

The warnings from around the world about the scale of the UK’s government debt crisis keep flowing in. Following last week’s warnings from the IMF and European Commission about the scale of the UK debt crisis, credit rating agency Fitch has described the UK as the AAA country most vulnerable to a downgrade. The table at the bottom of the page shows the European Commission’s forecasts for Government deficits as a share of GDP for next year. The UK beats IMF bailout case, Latvia, to head the league table with a deficit level almost double the EU average. The Commission estimates that the UK’s total debt will have almost doubled from 43% of GDP in 2007 to over 82% in just 3 years, moving the UK quickly towards the top of the EU debt league table.

David Blackburn

One Nation

David Cameron received a standing ovation after he proclaimed “Don’t dare lecture us about poverty”,  illustrating that compassionate conservatism is a central issue to the Conservative party. Today, David Cameron will set out his blueprint to eradicate poverty, which, together with education reform and the promotion of the family, form the compassionate case. Cameron is expected to say: “Our alternative to big government is not no government. Our alternative to big government is the big society, but we understand that the big society is not just going to spring to life on its own: we need strong and concerted government action to make it happen. We need to use the state to remake society.

Fraser Nelson

The pressure’s on Osborne

The Times tempted fate today with its splash boasting about the confidence and the strong pound. Fitch Ratings has today said that Britain’s AAA debt rating is more at risk than that of any other major nation because it needs “the largest budget adjustment” - ie, the most cuts - because Britain has the largest fiscal mess, and by some margin. (Sterling is off today on the news). But then Fitch says, more or less, that it’s banking on George Osborne’s first budget to sort the mess out. “Our stable rating outlook reflected our expectation that the U.K. government will articulate a stronger fiscal consolidation program next year.” The Conservatives should be proud of that verdict, but also anxious.

David Blackburn

Keeping the lights on

It may have come ten years late, but Ed Miliband’s decision to bypass planning processes for nuclear plants is welcome. Britain faces unprecedented energy insecurity, with widespread power cuts predicted from 2017. Rather than trust Vladimir Putin not to turn the top-off whenever he’s feeling piqued, or to rely on the totally unreliable Colonel Gadaffi, or import energy, the government will increase nuclear output to 25 percent of national production. To achieve this, government will act with almost dictatorial reach to circumvent local communities and their right to determine the scale and scope of local construction. Expense has long been an argument against nuclear power and each of the ten proposed reactors will cost £5bn.

Monday

David Blackburn

Can Clarke serve in a Cameron government?

Despite his pronounced Europhile views, a Politics Home insider poll suggests that Clarke can remain in the Shadow Cabinet and join a prospective Euro-sceptic Cameron government. As Clarke is signed up to the Cameron plan, I doubt that Europe is necessarily the problem. Concern arises from Clarke's apparent unwillingness to fulfil the duties of his brief. One think tank supremo is quoted by Pol Home saying: “No. It isn’t just Europe, it’s his non-fondness to work hard, master a brief, do the hard slog. He likes being on television, but there’s more to being a Secretary of State than that, and plenty of current non-frontbenchers who would work.” This objection relates to Clarke’s age as well, but is age necessarily a problem?

James Forsyth

Brown’s spelling mistakes prove how badly run Downing Street is

The row over Gordon Brown’s spelling mistakes in a letter to the mother of a soldier who had been killed in Afghanistan shows how badly run Brown’s Downing Street is. It is well known in Westminster that Brown’s handwriting is poor because of his bad eyesight. There is little that can be done about that and it is rather unfair to criticise him for that. But someone in Brown’s office should be checking all his letters to the families of the fallen to check that all the names in them are spelt correctly. Because this basic fail-safe mechanism is not in place there is now a family whose grief has been compounded and a political situation that is damaging the Prime Minister; this is the kind of story that sticks in peoples’ minds.

David Blackburn

Raving lunatic hails Major Hasan a ‘hero’

It’s worth noting this find that Harry’s Place has made. Anwar al Awlaki describes Major Hasan’s atrocity as ‘the right thing to do’. Al Awlaki is the former Imam of Dar al-Hijrah mosque in Great Falls, Virginia, where Hasan was a congregant. I maintain that it is too early to assert whether Hasan is or is not a ‘jihadist’ in the strict sense, but that his rapid freefall into homicidal madness would suggest that that he is a lunatic who happens to be a ‘devout’ Muslim; although in no way does that make him a victim.  Al Awlaki’s spiel highlights the absence of any moral objectivity to archaic, intolerant and hateful Islamism. It raises wider questions.

David Blackburn

Electoral wipe-out

The extremely well-connected Jackie Ashley makes this astonishing prediction in this morning’s Guardian: ‘Some Labour people may think I'm sounding too gloomy, but those who have been privy to recent private polling are a lot more than gloomy. This suggests that Labour could return to the Commons with just 120 MPs or thereabouts, taking the party back to 1930s territory. As ministers look for jobs to keep themselves going after politics, a Miliband move to Europe looks sensible.’ Surely it can’t be that bad? Surely? I would discount this prediction entirely but for the fact that Ashley is the best connected centre-left writer around. The figure is probably exaggerated, but even so.