Uk politics

Wednesday

David Blackburn

The Tories would have to rely on the DUP in the event of a hung parliament

From our UK edition

Reg Empey may yet oust the DUP’s William McCrea in South Antrim, but the indications are that the UUP and Tory alliance will not win a seat. The Tories will have to rely on co-operation with the DUP. In truth, competition between three Unionist parties has left the Unionist cause divided. The TUV’s Jim Allister is giving the DUP’s Ian Paisley Jr a close race in North Antrim. Robinson’s DUP will emerge the largest Unionist party in Ulster, but with a point to prove to voters who are keen to protect Northern Ireland’s bloated public sector and generous funding. Conservative he may be, but Robinson is an Ulsterman first and foremost and has the most to gain by securing what's best for Northern Ireland.

David Blackburn

Deceitful Brown returns to the old dividing line

From our UK edition

Labour’s campaign becomes ever more like The Prisoner. Every time the plot seems decided, it veers-off in the contrary direction. The Prime Minister was interviewed by The Times yesterday and I feel for those who conducted it, stuck in the vortex of what Gordon will say next. If you cast into the recesses of memory, you’ll recall that yesterday morning was tactical voting morning. They were all at it – Balls, Brown, Alexander and Hain. If you’re yellow threatened by blue, vote red; if you’re red threatened by blue, vote yellow. It was so confusing I half expected them to endorse blue if you’re red threatened by yellow. That was yesterday morning. By mid-afternoon Brown did what he does best. He changed his mind.

Tuesday

Daniel Korski

An economic coalition makes political sense

From our UK edition

If you believe, as most people probably do, that Robert Chote of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and Mervin King of the Bank of England should be listened to, then two conclusion emerge: one, that a new government’s budget-slashing will be far, far worse than anything the main parties have hitherto acknowledged; and that after a parliament of deficit-busting, the party in charge will be severely punished by the voters. It stands to reason, therefore, that it would be better to spread the pain, even if one party has a near-majority or an outright majority.

Peter Hoskin

The campaign money game

From our UK edition

Here's a minor turn-up for the political anoraks' scrapbooks: donations to Labour outstripped those going to the Tory party in the third week of the campaign. Brown & Co. were handed £1,416,863 against the Tories' £645,250. Which is no sign of an effective campaign - after all, almost all of Labour's publicity has been heavily negative. But it is a turnaround from the first week, when the Tories received £1,455,812 to Labour's £783,159. Another thing to note is the downturn in Lib Dem donations. They jumped up to £120,000 in the second week, but have now sunk back to £64,000.  The Tories, in particular, will be hoping that that represents a slowing of the Nick Clegg bandwagon.

Peter Hoskin

The Tories’ final onslaught

From our UK edition

"Where's the popcorn?" I thought, as I joined a bunch of journos to watch the Tories' final broadcast of the election campaign. It was a good nine minutes long, and might as well have been titled The Downfall of New Labour. The opening shots were of Blair and Brown in 97: "a new dawn," and all that. But Blair's image soon faded to black-and-white, and we were bombarded with a montage of headlines, quotes and images which highlighted the failures of the Labour years. 10p tax. Falling education standards. MRSA. The misdemeanours of Peter Mandelson. Defence spending. Purnell's resignation. Gillian Duffy. Even Manish Sood's comments today. Depending on your disposition, it was all gorily nostalgic stuff. Negative, yes. But quite powerful nonetheless.

Daniel Korski

The G-men or the Granola Army

From our UK edition

In the last stretch of political campaigns, things tend to get ugly as the real cost of winning and losing becomes clear. This one is no different, with its suggestions of tactical voting and disagreements about tactical weapons. The latter has become particularly viscious with a former spymaster, an ex-general and a former CT chief calling into question the securty and defence policies Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. In their defence, the Lib Dems have positioned their biggest weapon, Paddy Ashdown, who fired a volley against Richard Dearlove, the former head of MI6, saying that "things had changed since he supplied intelligence to Tony Blair about Iraq and WMD". Bull's eye! But who is right - Britain's G-men or the Granola Army?

James Forsyth

How is it strange that only British citizens can vote in British elections?

From our UK edition

Michael Crick has just blogged about a ‘strange quirk in the British political system.’ Writing about a Lib Dem councillor he says ‘interestingly, because she is a Danish citizen, double-councillor Lockington isn't just disqualified from standing as a candidate in the coming general election, she can't even vote in it.’ But what seems strange to me is the idea that people who aren’t British citizens should be able to vote in a British general election. PS I should, of course, point out that Irish citizens can vote in UK elections because of a reciprocal agreement made at the time of the foundation of the Irish Republic, which the Irish then reneged on. Commonwealth citizens resident in the UK can also vote.

Peter Hoskin

Osborne backs Crossrail

From our UK edition

George Osborne sounds a more confident note than most of his Tory bandmates in interview with the Standard today.  On top of the obligatory Ready for Government noises, he rattles off a list of London marginals which are winnable for the Tories, and adds that an overall majority is "within our grasp".  Pretty direct stuff for a politician, given all the uncertainty clogging the air in Westminster. To my eyes, though, the most significant passage could be this: "He gave a commitment to keep London's £16 billion Crossrail scheme, although he confirmed he will look for savings. 'I think Londoners would expect me to get good value for their money.

James Forsyth

The Ulster effect

From our UK edition

The electoral map that most of the broadcasters use misses off Northern Ireland entirely. But if the election is as close as people expect, then those 18 seats across the Irish Sea could become vital.   The first thing to note is that Sinn Fein remains committed to its policy of not taking its seats at Westminster. So every Sinn Fein MP elected reduces the number that a party needs to have an effective majority in the Commons. Iris Robinson, expenses and the rise of Traditional Unionist Voice have all rather dented the DUP, the largest party in Northern Ireland at the last election. But it should still send back a fair few MPs.

Peter Hoskin

Will the tactical voting plea work?

From our UK edition

There's only one question which matters when it comes to Labour's tactical voting plea: will it work?  You can certainly see Brown & Co's thinking on this.  This is the election, after all, where the Lib Dems have become a viable option for a lot more people - so they might act as a speed bump for people rushing away from Labour and towards the Tories.  And anything which depresses the Tory vote gives Labour a greater chance of holding the most seats in the House, and of making some kind of post-election pact with Nick Clegg. But as David said earlier, Labour's osciallating stance towards the Lib Dems - lofty sneers one minute, sickly grins the next - is hardly convincing.  And neither is the timing.

David Blackburn

Labour PPC: Gordon Brown is the worst Prime Minister ever

From our UK edition

At last, the election has thrown up a real character. Manish Sood, Labour PPC for North-West Norfolk, has told the Lynn Newspaper: ‘Immigration has gone up which is creating friction within communities. The country is getting bigger and messier. The role of ministers has gone bureaucratic and the action of ministers has gone downhill – it is corrupt. The loss of social values is the basic problem and this is not what the Labour Party is about. I believe Gordon Brown has been the worst Prime Minister we have had in this country. It is a disgrace and he owes an apology to the people and the Queen.’ There is a further act in the farce. Mr Sood campaigns on the imaginative ticket of 'taking Britain back to the 1970s.

David Blackburn

From carpet-bombing to love-bombing

From our UK edition

Labour’s relationship with the Lib Dems gets more like Dallas’s JR and Sue Ellen with each passing day. Contemptuous and contemptible one day to lisping breathless compliments the next.  Gordon Brown snarled at Nick Clegg during last week’s debate. Clegg would, Brown argued, leap gaily into bed with the Tories on Friday morning - a departure from the previous ‘we must form a progressive coalition’ line pushed by Andrew Adonis. This morning brings another volte face: Brown and several cabinet ministers urge ‘progressives’ to vote tactically. Writing in the Guardian, Gordon Brown pitches for Lib Dems to vote Labour in 100 Tory/Labour marginals.

Monday

David Blackburn

The Tories will trust in the Irish

From our UK edition

The Telegraph reports that a Conservative minority government would rely on an ‘informal understanding’ with Unionist MPs and that David Cameron is preparing the ground for co-operation.  It’s a courageous plan, in the Sir Humphrey sense.  Many journalists argue that Cameron has a duty to preserve the Union. Certainly he does, but his overtures to the Ulster Unionists have been self-defeating. There is an assumption that the Unionist parties are conservative. Besides conserving the Union, they are not. Back in February, I reported that the Tory alliance with Reg Empey was serving only to eviscerate the UUP, as its socialist and social democratic factions revolted against Tory alignment.

John Osullivan

Why aren’t the Tories doing better?

From our UK edition

My apologies for responding so tardily to Alex Massie's post of Friday, but it was quite well hidden, maybe prudently so. He begins by objecting to my assertion on National Review Online that given the failure and unpopularity of Labour, "the Tories [as the main opposition party] ought to be winning easily and by a landslide." This is an unfair critique, he argues, because "it's the failures of the past and that he inherited that make Dave's task so difficult. If 2005 hadn't been such a ghastly failure perhaps the Tories wouldn't need to win an extra 130 seats to win a majority. *In other words, they essentially need a landslide just to win a small victory*." Well, let me try to unravel the confusions here.

Fraser Nelson

Cameron will walk the line

From our UK edition

"Don't fall for it, Dave!" implores the front cover of this week's The Spectator - together with a leader (precis here) urging him to form a minority government rather than enter any pact with the LibDems. It looks like he will not disappoint us. The Telegraph today discloses that: 'Even if he fails to secure an outright majority, it is understood Mr Cameron is preparing to “go it alone” and form a minority government. The Tories are confident an informal understanding with unionist MPs from Ulster could secure Mr Cameron a safe passage with his key early Commons battles, including getting a first Queen’s Speech and Budget passed. Last night, the Conservative leader said that, with three days before polling day, the momentum was now with him.

Peter Hoskin

The Tories plan to cut early – but how would their opponents respond?

From our UK edition

Oh yes, the Tories are broadcasting more Ready For Government noises this morning.  There's an article in the Telegraph suggesting that David Cameron would choose a minority government ahead of coalition with the Lib Dems.  And the Guardian reports that a Tory government would set out a bulkload of spendings cuts in the first six months of office, when, as a senior Tory puts it, the "excitement of the general election aftermath" will still be hanging in the air. You can understand the Tory thinking here.  Not only will they find it easier to achieve things during the heat and righteous fury of early government, but they will also need to seize something like a mandate for the cuts which have remained off-stage during the election campaign.

Peter Hoskin

Nothing but negativity

From our UK edition

A telling passage from Nicholas Watt and Patrick Wintour's campaign report this morning: "Gordon Brown visited 10 London constituencies [yesterday] eventually leaving a pub in Kilburn by a side door after it was besieged by Tory and Lib Dem activists. He is now running a campaign almost exclusively warning of Tory cuts, and claiming that the party's first tax cut would be for Britain's richest millionaires. Brown also described the Tory manifesto as a 'horror show', flagging up their plans on inheritance tax, public services and the deficit, adding: 'I say the Conservative party is not fit for government if it has policies like that.

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

A grim reminder of the Islamist threat?

From our UK edition

Yesterday's attempted car-bombing in Times Square doesn't really tell us anything beyond that there are sociapaths willing to blow people up, and that sometimes luck – rather than judgement – foils their bloody plans.  But, given the Pakistani Taliban's claim that they were responsible for the attempt, it does serve as a grim reminder of the poison seeping out of that region.   The question now, and for the next few months, is whether the West will somehow become more engaged inside Pakistan.  It's notable how British ministers have increasingly namechecked the country when justifying our presence in Afghanistan – but, still, it seems that the Taliban and other Islamist groups have strengthened their foothold there.

Peter Hoskin

Cameron gets ready for government – but will he manage to avoid “frontline” cuts?

From our UK edition

For the past few years, the Tory task has been to look like a government-in-waiting. Now, with the election only a matter of days away, David Cameron has dialled that process up to eleven. In interviews with the Sunday Times and Andrew Marr today, the Tory leader concentrates firmly on the nuts and bolts of government. The content of the Queen's speech, the depth of Tory cuts, the possibility of coalition – all get name-checked and cross-referenced. There's much in there to encourage Tory supporters. Indeed, CoffeeHousers have been clamouring for one of Cameron's proposals: a "Great Repeal Act," which would "scrap ID cards, home information packs and dozens of rarely enforced criminal offences introduced by Labour over 13 years.