Uk politics

Friday

Peter Hoskin

The situation is ominous for Gordon Brown

From our UK edition

Let's just consider three of today's events: i) Gordon Brown has led his party to Michael Foot-era levels of support. ii) Peter Mandelson has very publicly knifed his boss on national televsion. And, iii) Nick Clegg has said that the Tories have the "first right" to form a government. Senior Labour figures are suggesting that a deal with the Lib Dems remains possible – but Brown's fingernail grip on the premiership looks to be weakening by the minute.

Peter Hoskin

Nick Clegg gives the Tories the go-ahead

From our UK edition

So Nick Clegg has finally spoken – and his words will be welcomed by the Tories.  In an address outside of the Lib Dem HQ on Cowley St, he reiterated his previous argument that "whichever party gets the most votes and the most seats, without gaining a majority, has the first right to form a government."  But added that "it seems this morning that the Conservative Party have the most votes and the most seats ... it is for the Conservative Party to prove that it is capable of governing in the national interest." What this means in practice isn't 100 percent certain – although it doesn't sound good for Labour.

Fraser Nelson

There may be Tory trouble ahead

From our UK edition

Will the 1922 Committee of Tory MPs elect an emergency chairman today? If so, the mission would be to warn Cameron off doing any deal with the LibDems. Most Conservatives will wake up today judging the Cameron campaign to have failed. In the view of many, he will have failed to honour his "change to win" promise: they all changed, as he asked, but he didn't win. There will be a price to pay, and perhaps one of the heads around Cameron will have to roll to assuage the discontent. Any Lib-Con deal over voting reform will be anathema to many recently-elected as well as existing  Tory MPs. A new chairman of the 1922 Committee will want to make this point to Cameron before any damage is done. A deal with Northern Irish MPs would probably be as much as the party would wear.

Peter Hoskin

Peter Mandelson is open to the idea of Brown going

From our UK edition

Peter Mandelson has just tossed a firecracker in to the arena.  Asked on the Beeb whether Labour might get rid of Brown to accommodate the Lib Dems, he replied: "There will be a number of permutations ... I'm not ruling anything in, or anything out." So, in other words: yes.

Peter Hoskin

Let the recriminations begin

From our UK edition

Let's rewind to 10pm yesterday evening, when the exit poll was released.  Most politicos - myself included - were incredulous.  We could just about believe that there might be a hung Parliament with the Tories as the largest party, but a reduced number of Lib Dem seats?  After Cleggmania and all those recent opinion polls?  Gedouttahere. But, this morning, that exit poll is looking a good deal more prescient.  After an evening of erratic results, Sky's projection matches it almost exactly: 309 seats for the Tories, 259 for Labour, and 54 for the Lib Dems.  So we're on for a hung parliament, and all the backroom discussion and subterfuge that that entails. Already, the dividing lines have been traced across Westminster.

Thursday

Peter Hoskin

Election Night live blog

From our UK edition

0843, JGF: The result in Hampstead and Kilburn is remarkable. The local Lib Dems were convinced that they would win. But Glenda Jackson survives by 42 votes with the Tories in second. 0639, PH: A dejected sounding speech from Nick Clegg. 0638, PH: Clegg says "this has been a disappointing night for the Lib Dems - and we obviously didn't achieve what we hoped to achieve." 0637, PH: In his acceptance speech, Nick Clegg is going big on the voting problems of last night. 0634, PH: Some good news for the Lib Dems: erm, Nick Clegg holds in Sheffield Hallam. With an increased majority. 0620, JGF: Jon Cruddas holds on, he'll have a big role to play in the Labour party machinations of the last few days.

Peter Hoskin

Tory confidence?

From our UK edition

Just under two hours to go until polls close, and Tory types around Westminster seem fairly confident that they can snatch a majority.  Their argument remains the same: that a combination of their party's concentrated firepower in the marginals and their motivated voting base will swing it for them.  And their demeanour is slightly more relaxed than you'd expect.  Maybe they're just tired, maybe it's all show – but, in true Catchphrase style, I'm simply saying what I see. CoffeeHousers seem just as confident, if not more so.  Over in our poll on Spectator Live, 60 percent of you think we'll end up with a Tory majority.  27 percent go for a Tory minority government.  And then we're into fractions for the other options.

David Blackburn

The best and worst of the campaign: David Cameron

From our UK edition

Cameron's best moment: the sunshine of the final TV debate David Cameron has had a peculiar campaign.  For the most part, the big set-piece occasions haven't quite caught fire, while many of the Tory leader's successes have been the relatively low-key and impromptu successes of the campaign trail.  Having said that, it was the biggest set-piece event of them all - the final TV debate - which gave Cameron his best moment of the election.  Here, he was energetic, direct and, most importantly, optimistic.  And he even managed to sell the Tories' school reform policy in a straightforward and engaging way.  In his closing statement, Cameron did what he always promised he would - and let sunshine win the day.

James Forsyth

A last blast of polling

From our UK edition

I have just been looking at the last wave of polling done for Euro RSCG, who have done much of the advertising for the Tories. The polling, done by one of the big polling firms, was carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday. It shows that 49% of those surveyed expect Cameron to be Prime Minister after the election, up from 46 percent in the last sample which ended on Saturday. Only 16 percent expect Brown to be PM post-election. The data also shows Lib Dem momentum slowing in the final days of the campaign and Labour picking up a bit.

David Blackburn

Best and worst of the campaign: Nick Clegg

From our UK edition

Clegg's best moment: the first TV debate No one could have predicted that 90 minutes of television would have such an impact. But this election has been dominated by the strange re-birth of Liberalism, engendered by Nick Clegg's performance in the first TV debate. Television is a medium determined by empathy. Clegg embodied the frustration and contempt that many voters feel for the two established parties, and he expressed his alternative vision with ease and clarity in contrast to Cameron and Brown's garbled debate. The nation swooned. Honourable mention: being the first leader to undergo a Paxman interview.

David Blackburn

Best and worst of the campaign: Gordon Brown

From our UK edition

As we wait for the polls to close, and the final countdown to begin, we at Coffee House thought it would be a good opportunity to look back on the campaign as a whole. And, so, here's the first in a series of three posts identifying the best and worst moments for the main party leaders. We've started with the man who remains Prime Minister for the time being: Gordon Brown. Brown's best moment: the Citizens UK speech As it happens, choosing Brown's best moment of the campaign is easy. Alongside so many gaffes, scowls and lies, the flashes of proficiency tend to stick out - and none more so than his speech to Citizens UK earlier this week. Yes, the audience was heavily inclined towards him.

Brian Reading

How a cow won the 1970 election

From our UK edition

The conspiracy theory of history is rarely right; the bungle theory is rarely wrong. So it was at the 1970 British general election. I bungled. The polls gave Labour a 3 percent lead; instead the Tories won. Historians disagree on why this was so. Some blame the margin of error in opinion polls. Others say there was a late swing. If so, I was to blame. It was the Sunday before the Thursday polling. We were panicking. Our Tory backroom boys gathered together three or four future cabinet ministers. I asked how were we to deal with inflation – more important in those days than the budget deficit.

Peter Hoskin

The party leaders vote

From our UK edition

David and Samantha Cameron leaving the polling station in Spelsbury Gordon and Sarah Brown arrive to vote in North Queensferry Nick and Miriam Clegg vote in Sheffield.

Fraser Nelson

Predicting election results is a fool’s errand

From our UK edition

Why is predicting this election so difficult? Because voters themselves don’t know what to do. Before each of the last seven elections, Ipsos/Mori ask voters if they might change their minds. In 1983 and 1987, about one in seven said yes. This time, almost half of the British electorate may change their minds. This explains why 2010 has been the most volatile election in recent memory – with all thee parties having been ahead, in some way, during the campaign. And it also explains why prediction is a fool’s game. My gut still tells me ‘small Tory majority’ but I have learned never to bet on my gut. The press consensus is that Cameron will win over 300 seats, but no poll points to this result. And the bookies?

David Blackburn

Nigel Farage in plane crash

From our UK edition

Guido reports that a two-seater aeroplane carrying UKIP's Nigel Farage was circling in the air before crashing near Buckingham. Farage is understood to have walked away from the accident with only minor injuries and is now on his way to hospital. More details to follow. UPDATE: Reports are inconclusive, but it seems that Mr Farage was pulled semi-conscious from wreckage and may be seeing a heart specialist at Horton General Hospital Banbury.

Peter Hoskin

As the polls open, a topsy-turvy campaign closes

From our UK edition

Now's the time, dear CoffeeHouser. After nearly three years in Number Ten, Gordon Brown is finally subjecting himself to the wishes of the British public. And, signs are, he won't like what they've got to say. Putting the strong possibility of a hung parliament aside, last night's opinion polls had Labour on or around Michael Foot levels of support. A few folk, like Marbury, have observed that it's almost like the campaign didn't happen. And they're right: there is a peculiar symmetry to the electoral calculus. After all the mood shifts of the past four weeks, we're back broadly where we started: with the Tories looking to gain either a small majority, or be the largest party in a hung parliament. But it's worth remarking on some of the changes which have stuck.

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

Two more polls point towards a hung parliament

From our UK edition

Is this it? A couple more polls have been released, and – like all the others tonight – they point towards a hung parliament. An ICM poll for the Guardian has the Tories on 36 percent (up three points), Labour on 28 percent (no change), and the Lib Dems on 26 (down 2).  And a ComRes effort for the Independent and ITV has the parties on 37, 28 and 28, respectively. Most Tories I've spoken with this evening are, they say, mildly pleased with the opinion polls.  Not overjoyed, of course – but they feel their party's greater firepower in the marginals means that numbers like those above will translate to a small majority.  Either way, things are certainly very close.

Peter Hoskin

And now YouGov…

From our UK edition

You want more numbers? Well, the YouGov figures for the Sun have just come in, and they are: the Tories on 35 percent (no change), Labour on 28 percent (down two), and the Lib Dems on 28 percent (up 4). So far tonight, all the polls have been in hung parliament territory (on an uniform national swing). And most have Labour and the Lib Dems more or less on level-pegging. More polls here and here.  There's a good handful still to come, so keep your seat calculators to hand. UPDATE: YouGov also conducted some marginals polling.

Peter Hoskin

Let the games begin

From our UK edition

Make no mistake: tomorrow's election is just so many beginnings. The beginning of a fiscal footslog for the next government. The beginning of the Lib Dems' struggle to maintain attention and support. The beginning, perhaps, of backroom negotiations to determine who gets to govern our country. But, of all these beginnings, there's one which threatens to be more violent and compulsive than all the rest: a Labour leadership contest. Over at Spectator Live, we polled CoffeeHousers on who will emerge victorious from the bloodbath, and the results are now in. David Miliband came out on top with 46 percent of the vote. Next came "other" on 16 percent (who did you have in mind? Jon Cruddas?). And then Alan Johnson (11 percent) and Peter Mandelson (9 percent).