Uk politics

There's a lot of economic speculation swirling around the Westminster washbowl at the momment, but little of it is as eyecatching as today's report from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development. Its finding that a third of employers are expecting to cut jobs in the next quarter is bound to spark double-dip fears, even if that expectation is more keenly felt in the public sector than in the private. 36 percent of public sector employers foresee job losses, against 30 percent in the private sector. Perhaps more worryingly, both sectors are expecting more redundancies than they did in last quarter's report. Look below the headline figures, though, and there are signs that the private sector is driving on ahead regardless.

The Sunday Times YouGov poll (£) contains some statistics that will warm Cameron’s cockles. ‘The poll also backs the idea, floated by the prime minister last week, that new tenants in council and social housing should have a limited term of five or 10 years before they have to make way for others if their circumstances have changed. The proposal, criticised by Simon Hughes, the Liberal Democrat deputy leader, is supported by 62% and opposed by 32%. Even among Liberal Democrat supporters there is strong support for the idea, by 67% to 26%. Tory supporters overwhelmingly back it, by 78% to 18%. Labour voters are only narrowly in favour, by 48% to 47%.’ The figures for Liberal Democrat and Labour support are surprising.

Among the most eyecatching, and potentially important, stories of the day is this one in the Telegraph. It suggests that various departments have "failed" to outline a "worst case scenario" of 40 percent cuts that was demanded by the Treasury. And it even names and shames Caroline Spelman's Department for Environment, Farming and Rural Affairs as one of the offenders. Mrs Spelman, we're told, has now "been forced to use the time before her holiday to work up the projections with her officials and permanent secretary." Nothing like a last minute job, then. To be fair to Whitehall civil servants, there is a general sense that they have set about identifying cuts with some flair – although, obviously, the process won't go entirely smoothly.

With this autumn’s Spending Review set to be one of the most important moments in the life of the coalition government, Coffee House has linked up with the think-tank Reform to investigate what could – and should – be in the final document. This first post, by Reform’s director Andrew Haldenby, is the first in a series of “What you need to know” summaries, looking at each of the main policy areas – in this case, health. Other posts will cover specific policies, examples from abroad and Reform events. We’re delighted to get the ball rolling… What is the budget? The NHS is the biggest public service budget in England by far.