Uk politics

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

A postcard from Dave and Nick

From our UK edition

Here's a slightly curious one: David Cameron and Nick Clegg have written a public letter to their ministers, reminding them that, "deficit reduction and continuing to ensure economic recovery is the most urgent issue facing Britain," and that, "the purpose of our government … [is] … putting power in the hands of communities and individuals and equipping Britain for long-term success." If you wanted to read into it, then you could say that the emphasis on the "long-term" throughout the letter is a warning to any disgruntled sorts: policies for the long-term require time to implement, so the coalition has to be built to last, etc. etc. But, of course, this missive is directed at voters as much as anyone else.

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Tyrie asserts himself once again

From our UK edition

Few MPs have made quite so many waves recenty as last year's Spectator backbencher of the year, Andrew Tyrie. Under his chairmanship, the Treasury Select Committee seems to have gained a new vitality and edge. And it has certainly accumulated more powers, with the ability to veto the government's appointments to, and dismissals from, the Office for Budget Responsibility. As he put it himself in an interview with the Independent last week, "The fight back by Parliament is beginning now." Just how aggressively he intends to prosecute that fight back is suggested by his comments in the Times (£) today.

Peter Hoskin

Dannatt’s departure means one less cook stirring the defence broth

From our UK edition

So Sir Richard Dannatt has departed the Tory fold almost as curiously as he entered it. Sure, have been no gaffes from Chris Grayling this time around – but when it was announced last October that the former head of the Army was advising David Cameron, it was widely expected that he'd graduate to become a peer and a minister in any Tory government. But today he announces his "retirement" as neither. The Tories are downplaying all this, eager to avoid a repeat of the speculation that surrounded Sir Alan Budd's departure. And, to be fair, there are few signs, as yet, that this is a viciously unamicable split.

Fraser Nelson

There is no Cabinet rift on benefit reform

From our UK edition

Here's me about to go on holiday, and the welfare wars seem to be opening up. Neil O'Brien has a piece on it over at the Telegraph website. And Hopi Sen, one of the better leftie bloggers, has written a response to my post yesterday. Partly, he wants to stir: it's not so much that the Treasury want to block IDS's reforms, he says, but rather that they are following Osborne's orders to reduce the deficit. And so it's one part of the government at war with another. By contrast, the Whitehall wars I outlined are hangovers from the Brown days, where the Treasury set policy for all other departments and its instinctive reaction was to destroy any proposal it did not come up with.

Peter Hoskin

Who is Labour’s Mr Sun?

From our UK edition

Writing for the Times, Tim Montgomerie neatly overlays Aesop onto the Labour leadership contest: "The next Labour leader is unlikely to be an Abbott, Balls or Burnham. Gordon Brown’s successor will be a Miliband. But I’m more interested in whether he will be Mr Sun or Mr Wind. Aesop captured the dilemma in a fable. If you want a man to take off his cloak, do you huff and puff and force him to give it up or do you cover him with warmth until he discards it freely? In Aesop, the sun scores a predictable victory. Politics isn’t so easy. Harriet Harman’s blasts at Nick Clegg’s alleged betrayal of left-wing voters has undoubtedly blown many Liberal Democrat voters towards Labour.

Peter Hoskin

Brown, the third worst Prime Minister since WW2?

From our UK edition

Now here's a poll that you can really get your teeth into. Reported in today's FT, a survey of 100 or so academics has rated Gordon Brown as the third worst Prime Minister since the second world war. It marks him with 3.9 out of 10, ahead of only Sir Anthony Eden and Sir Alec Douglas-Home. At the other end of the scale, Clement Attlee comes out on top with 8.1 our of 10, ahead of second-placed Margaret Thatcher on 6.9. Which, as Tim Montgomerie says at ConservativeHome, is understandable enough – Attlee probably made a more indelible contribution to British life than anyone else on the list. I was struck by the context in which one of the survey's compilers placed Tony Blair's third-placed finish.

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

Cameron’s circles of influence

From our UK edition

Andrew Rawnsley's potted hierarchy of the coalition government – and especially its final sentence – is worth pulling out for the scrapbook: "There is still, of course, an inner circle. When not abroad, the first key fixture of the day at Number 10 is the strategy meeting. Its usual attendees include George Osborne, the chancellor; Andy Coulson and Steve Hilton, his director of communications and his senior strategist; Jeremy Heywood, the permanent secretary at Number 10; the prime minister's chief and deputy chief of staff, Ed Llewellyn and Kate Fall. Note that Nick Clegg is not on that list. He belongs to the next circle of influence around David Cameron.

Peter Hoskin

Getting credit flowing will be one of the coalition’s toughest challenges

From our UK edition

In interview with the Sunday Telegraph today, George Osborne stresses that the banks have got to start lending again – and he's right to do so. The easy availability of cheap credit may have done much to get us into this mess, but now we face a converse problem. As a recent Bank of England report shows, net lending from the banks to businesses remains negative – or, in other words, more is being paid back than given out – and the situation is getting worse. With small and medium businesses so reliant on credit to get themselves off the ground, this doesn't augur well for a powerful recovery. But what can the government do to rectify the situation?

Fraser Nelson

Cameron must take this chance to end the giant evil of welfare dependency

From our UK edition

There’s been plenty political drama in these past few weeks, but the most crucial agenda – and by some margin – is Iain Duncan Smith’s proposed overhaul of welfare. It doesn’t deserve to be categorised as just another political tussle. As I say in the News of the World today, it is easily the most important issue in Britain, and it is overlooked because of an affliction which most of our political class suffers: that of moral long-sightedness. No one wears wristbands for the British poor, Prime Ministers pledge to “eradicate illiteracy” in Africa yet are strangely indifferent to the illiteracy on our own doorstep.

Peter Hoskin

The coalition’s Lib Dem conundrum

From our UK edition

Yesterday, a "source close to the Prime Minister" told the Telegraph that we shouldn't bother much with the opinion polls as at the moment. As they put it, "we're only a few weeks into a new Parliament and we've got nearly five years to go before everyone really has to worry about the polls again." But, make no mistake, there will be Lib Dems who are deeply concerned by how their party is polling at the moment. The YouGov poll in today's Sunday Times, which has the yellow bird of liberty stuttering along at 12 percent, only underlines a remarkable decline since the election campaign (see chart above).

Saturday

Peter Hoskin

Will Cable be selling the coalition’s cuts?

From our UK edition

Compared to the major affairs of state, David Cameron's decision to spend part of this summer touring the nation to sell the coalition and its spending cuts may seem but a trifle. Yet it's a good move nonetheless. After the obfuscations from all sides before the election, Osborne's Budget swept in a more upfront approach to cuts. Cameron's roadshow, you hope, will keep that going. One thing to look out for is how Vince Cable gets on this summer. The Telegraph reports that he will also be involved in the coalition's big promotional drive, and will be holding his own public meetings during August. A recipe for trouble given Cable's singular approach to united government? Perhaps.

Peter Hoskin

Francis Maude is right, but he must remain wary

From our UK edition

Big words from Francis Maude, as he tells today's Guardian that the current government is more radical than either Thatcher or Blair were in their first terms. But, to my mind, he's right. Even looking back on the past week – with the proposals to reform policing and benefits – there's a good deal of radical policy. And that's before we get onto the free schools revolution or GP commissioning – or, of course, to a Budget which took shears to the size of the state as few have done so before. But Maude shouldn't get too excited quite yet. It is all very well talking about good intentions and plans, but – as any fule kno – the real challenge will be in the implementation. The case of Michael Gove is instructive in this regard.

Peter Hoskin

The past few weeks have made the struggle in Afghanistan even more difficult

From our UK edition

Domestically speaking, it has been an encouraging week from the coalition. Internationally speaking, less so. And today we see the first real rush of fallout from David Cameron’s appearance on the world stage, as the Pakistani intelligence agency cancels a visit to London, “in reaction to the comments made by the British Prime Minister against Pakistan.” It’s not the kind of development that we should exaggerate –after all, it still looks likely that President Zardari will visit Cameron next week, even if officials in Pakistan have been wavering on that front. But we shouldn’t underestimate it either. The main reason to worry is, largely, one of personality.

Friday

Patrick Nolan

IDS’s welfare reforms aren’t perfect, but he’s right to be bold

From our UK edition

So, Iain Duncan Smith has set out proposals to comprehensively reform of the welfare system. The goal is to replace 51 benefits with a single and flexible allowance. It has been claimed that this reform would allow people with jobs to retain more of their benefits and ensure that people who work will always be better off than people on benefits.   There are problems with Iain Duncan Smith’s proposals. Fiscal cost is one, and the Work and Pensions Secretary has already clashed with George Osborne over the price of these proposals. Lowering taper rates to make work more rewarding could mean that more people receive more generous assistance – meaning costs go up.

Matthew Sinclair

The coalition can do more for less on benefits reform

From our UK edition

There is a lot to like about Iain Duncan Smith's new proposals for welfare reform.  The chance to move towards a radically simplified benefits system is enormously exciting.  As I wrote for Coffee House last week, the current system is a complete mess and failing on just about every criteria.  It is so complicated that £4.5 billion a year is lost to error and fraud; working at the minimum wage of £5.80 an hour can be worth as little as 26p an hour; and too many families slip through the net so that the number living in severe poverty has actually increased from 5 to 6 per cent in the last decade.

Peter Hoskin

A Boris success story?

From our UK edition

As strange as it sounds, the launch of Boris's cycle hire scheme is a significant moment for the Mayor of London. It's exactly the kind of ruse which, if it fails, will provide his opponents with an exaggeratedly high-profile target to aim at come election time.

Peter Hoskin

The Balls dilemma

From our UK edition

How could I have forgotten to mention this in my last post? In that YouGov poll on the Labour leadership race, Ed Balls finished in a resounding last place. Yep, the former Schools Secretary is stuck on 11 percent of first preference votes – behind both Diane Abbott and Andy Burnham, who are tied on 12 percent, as well as both Miliband brothers of course. And the news has got Jim Pickard and Mehdi Hasan wondering: just what will Balls do next? Has he given up on winning? Will he drop out of the race and concentrate on becoming shadow chancellor? I know plenty of Tories who wouldn't know whether to laugh or cry if that turned out to be the case. But the leading article in this week's edition of the magazine sets out just why Tories should still be worried about Balls.

Peter Hoskin

Jon Cruddas continues to swing behind David Miliband

From our UK edition

One thing's for sure: the Labour leadership contest is a lot more uncertain than a lot of people expected. Polls such as that by YouGov today, and analysis by Left Foot Forward last week, suggest that the Brothers Miliband are pushing each other all the way to the finishing line – particularly when second preference votes are stirred into the mix. Which is perhaps the main reason why even the smallest interventions could have an influence on the result, and are worth tracking if you're minded towards that kind of thing. In which case, I point you towards Jon Cruddas's article for the latest New Statesman in which he makes the case that Labour needs to do more to court English votes. And who else has made a similar argument recently?

Peter Hoskin

At last, IDS gets his chance to reform benefits

From our UK edition

For some time now, we on Coffee House have been raving about Iain Duncan Smith's plans for reforming benefits. And, today, it finally looks as though they – or something like them – will soon be put into action. The DWP is releasing a consultation document which aims to simplify and straighten out a benefits system which now acts as a barrier to work. Over the next few months, various think-tanks and other organisations will submit their own ideas for doing just that. Someone who will no doubt take part in that process, Policy Exchange's Neil O'Brien, has a written a very useful summary of the main questions and arguments here.

Thursday

David Blackburn

Is the real love affair between Fat Pang and Dave?

From our UK edition

We know that Chris Patten is advising David Cameron over the Pope’s visit – the Spectator interviewed him in that capacity recently. But a number of events this week suggest that Patten is very close to Cameron. Patten is currently in India, selling Oxford University with Cameron, but he has found time to pen an article about Gaza for the FT. Like Cameron, Patten believes that Gazans are serving an ‘interminable prison sentence’. He writes: ‘Gaza is totally separated from the rest of Palestine. It is cut off by a brutal siege. The objective is collective punishment of the one and a half million people who live there simply because they have a Hamas administration.