Uk politics

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Congratulations to Samantha and David Cameron

From our UK edition

Coffee House congratulations to Samantha and David Cameron on the birth of their baby daughter. Here's the Downing Street statement: "The Prime Minister and Mrs Cameron are delighted to announce the birth of their fourth child, a baby girl. Both the baby – who was born weighing 6lbs 1oz – and Mrs Cameron are doing very well. The PM and Mrs Cameron would like to thank the doctors and nurses at the hospital for their help and kindness." No name, as yet – any guesses?

David Blackburn

Stage 2 in the penal revolution

From our UK edition

The government’s position is that prison does not work. It aims to reduce prison numbers and now Ken Clarke has announced that further savings will be made to the criminal justice budget. The Times reports (£) that Clarke will continue Labour’s policy of closing courts; 103 magistrates courts and 54 county courts will shut up shop. The Tories campaigned against court-closures at the fag-end of the last government; and there is whispered concern around Whitehall and Westminster that the concrete apparatus of justice is already over-stretched. But, savings must be made. Clarke's closures will save a paltry £15.3 million from the annual £1.1bn budget; the bulk of cuts will come from reducing the number of contested trials.

David Blackburn

IDS versus Osborne: there can only be one winner

From our UK edition

The Quiet Man is an odd moniker for Iain Duncan Smith. There was nothing quiet about his opposition to the Maastricht Treaty and he turned up the volume when he told the Tories to ‘unite or die’. Matthew d’Ancona observes that IDS is a noisy maverick again. IDS has threatened to resign if his welfare reforms are obstructed. Principles are one thing and tactics another. As d’Ancona notes: ‘Such talk is fine if a minister means he will quit if he himself fails. But in IDS's case it has sounded more like a threat: if the leaders of the coalition do not give him what he wants, he will resign and bring the temple walls crashing down around him.

Peter Hoskin

The double dip predictions

From our UK edition

Hark, there seems to be a lot of noise about a double dip recession at the moment – added to, yesterday, by Dr Martin Weale of the Bank of England. So I thought I'd collect some of the more recent, more prominent warnings and predictions for posterity's sake. Do let me know (either in the comments or on phoskin @ spectator.co.uk) if there are any that are worth adding: Sir Alan Budd, 16 August Sir Alan was asked on BBC Radio 4's Today programme whether he believed Britain would avoid slipping back into negative growth. "I'm not confident of it," he said. "Our fan charts show that it is a possibility, just as much stronger growth is a possibility. It's not the most likely outcome.

Monday

James Forsyth

A very British diarist

From our UK edition

The extracts from Chris Mullin’s diaries that ran in the Mail on Sunday this weekend suggest that the second volume will be as good as the first. It contains things that you just couldn’t make up. Tom Watson, for example, told Mullin that he was pushed into rebellion by the knowledge that Cherie Blair had had the Prime Minster’s section of the nuclear bunker redecorated.   But, perhaps, the most telling  story is what happened when Gordon Brown went to the Chinese embassy to sign the book of condolence for victims of the earthquake there: “While Gordon and his party were inside, word reached them that David Cameron was waiting outside.

Peter Hoskin

How the coalition can develop its case for fairness

From our UK edition

The coverage in today's FT is a reminder that one question will pursue the coalition more doggedly than any other: are the cuts fair and "progressive"? This isn't an issue that Osborne & Co should duck, and not just because they've set it as a measure of their own success. There is, to my mind, a moral and economic necessity for measures that benefit the least well-off – and, what's more, this is terrain which the coalition should feel quite comfortable traversing. Benefit reform, schools reform, lifting low-income earners out of tax: these policies provide a solid foundation for an argument about fairness. If the coalition wants to develop that argument persuasively, then it should remember four points: 1) The graphs don't show the whole picture.

Peter Hoskin

Will there be money for free schools?

From our UK edition

Some eyecatching numbers in today's FT about how many free schools we can expect, and when. According to Department of Education officials, there will be about 12 of the new schools in 2011, another 50 in 2012, and around 100 in 2013. The paper dwells on how this falls short of the Tories' pre-election rhetoric. And it's true: the original idea was for around 3,000 new schools across nine years. So, 162 schools across three years hardly looks like fluid progress towards that goal. This needn't be a bad thing, of course. As so often, quality not quantity will determine the lasting success of this reform.

David Blackburn

Andy Burnham’s faltering campaign

From our UK edition

Andy Burnham’s leadership campaign is going the way of all flesh. According to Left Foot Forward’s model, Burnham is set to come fourth behind Ed Balls. A You Gov poll predicted a similarly poor showing for Burnham. I’m surprised by this. Burnham is presentable against a field of gawky rivals. Also, after a faltering start, he has tuned a clear anti-establishment message, crafted to politicise the north south divide and New Labour's soulless metropolitanism. He reiterates it for today’s Independent, arguing that the party has been run for too long in ‘an elitist, London-centric and controlling way’ and that New Labour was ‘born of a distrust of its members.

Peter Hoskin

An important couple of months for Nick Clegg

From our UK edition

A week ago, I wrote that Nick Clegg had an important couple of weeks ahead of him. Now, the next couple of months are looking even more significant for the Lib Dem leader. An article in today's Independent captures the tone of what faces him: in the aftermath of the Charles Kennedy defection talk, Lib Dems have been shocked into demanding more from their leader. As the paper puts it, senior Lib Dems are calling for "more policy 'wins' ... to demonstrate to doubters in his party that he was delivering on Liberal Decocrat priorities."  Clegg probably hasn't faced such sustained internal pressure since he defeated Chris Huhne to the leadership in 2007. What strikes me, though, is how shortsighted much of that pressure is.

Sunday

David Blackburn

Clegg to be sidelined from AV campaign

From our UK edition

The Sunday Times (£) has news that Nick Clegg will not front his party’s ‘Yes to AV’ campaign next May. This makes sense. The deluge of abuse he received in Bristol yesterday was another indication that many have fallen out love with Clegg. The Lib Dem leadership fear that if Clegg heads the campaign it will descend into a referendum on Clegg and his decision to form a coalition with the Tories. That will probably transpire in any event, especially if Labour opposes the introduction of AV, which it looks set to do. It makes sense to protect the embattled Lib Dem leader from as much collateral damage as possible. Presumably that will extend to Lib Dem cabinet ministers, which suggests that Simon Hughes is likely to play a significant role.

David Blackburn

Ed Balls’ contract with the Labour Party

From our UK edition

Ed Balls has produced a contract with the Labour party. Three things strike me about it. First, he emphasizes broader consultation and promises a greater role for activists and local representatives. These political impulses are championed by the coalition – an indication that Cameron and Clegg’s partnership is beginning to change Britain party political landscape. Second, Balls is a proud friend of the trade unions and wants to restore the link between Labour and the unions, perhaps to redress Labour’s chronic financial position. Third, like Ed Miliband, he has adopted Harriet Harman’s goal of having women as 50 percent of the shadow cabinet.

David Blackburn

Seconds out…IDS versus Osborne

From our UK edition

Infamously, George Canning and Viscount Castlereagh fought a duel over a policy disagreement; Iain Duncan Smith and George Osborne will follow suit at this rate. I had thought they’d resolved their differences over the upfront costs of IDS’ welfare reform; but the Mail on Sunday reports otherwise, glorying in the glares, savage bon mots and expletives. This is the conundrum: if IDS doesn’t find £10bn in savings, he will not get the £3bn needed to enact his reforms to make work pay.

James Forsyth

Preparing the ground for conference

From our UK edition

Nick Clegg has been taking advantage of his week in charge to do a series of high profile events. But at nearly every one — his speech in London, his town-halls in Newcastle and Bristol — he has encountered Lib Dems wanting to express their anger about the coalition and its policies. As I say in the Mail on Sunday, the worry for the Lib Dem leadership has to be that this is a preview of what they could face at conference. This danger has been compounded by the fact that Clegg will leave it early to attend the UN summit in New York, Cameron will be staying at home as he and Samantha’s baby is due then.

Saturday

David Blackburn

Clegg’s no Dave

From our UK edition

Nick Clegg faced a stormy Q&A session this afternoon and he isn’t in David Cameron’s league as a performer. He struggled through tough questions on VAT, DfID, a transaction tax, AV and the appointment of Philip Green. His answers were garbled, though he did stick to the government’s script. There was, however, one particularly damaging exchange. Clegg was heckled by a man who thought the coalition ‘lacked a mandate for its rather brutal social policies’, and added that Clegg should get out of the coalition before it was ‘too late.’ Clegg’s response was limply pugilistic. ‘You’ve obviously got an axe to grind.

James Forsyth

Clegg’s alternative view on the alternative vote

From our UK edition

Nick Clegg’s fortnight in the sun continues with a big interview in today’s Telegraph. What struck me most were not his comments on a graduate tax (which David has blogged about) but those on AV. If the AV referendum is lost, then Clegg will have a very difficult time keeping his party united and in the coalition. But if Clegg makes clear how much AV means to his party, then the chances of it being defeated increases as Labour voters and those dissatisfied with the coalition see it as a chance to bring it down. (Remember we can expect most Tory voters to back first past the post, making the support of Labour voters crucial to the passage of AV).

David Blackburn

Clegg and the dissenters

From our UK edition

Nick Clegg understands his party’s misgivings, and he has devoted an interview with the Telegraph to calming his troops with some of the old religion. He will continue to fight for an alternative nuclear deterrent to Trident and he hints that tuition fees will be abolished. He says of the proposed graduate tax or student contribution: “It’s one we think is acceptable. The perception of [tuition fees] is that it imposes a wall of debt as you walk through the entry gates of university. This has a chilling effect on applications. It sends a signal which seems to be discouraging.

Friday

Fraser Nelson

In praise of British ingenuity

From our UK edition

Two spitfires have just flown over our offices at The Spectator, to commemorate the Battle of Britain. The aircraft are deservedly iconic, but it's a bit of shame that over the years they've eclipsed the de Havilland Mosquito in the public memory. They were developed too late for the Battle itself, but were incredible aircraft when they were deployed. And, crucially, privately-developed. In 1937, the British had only 46 bombers where the Germans had about 800 – and the speed at which the RAF developed was extraordinary. The battle of Britain exposed the weaknesses in the Luftwaffe – and Nazi procurement policy. Hitler relied on a vast, unwieldy bureaucracy to produce a heavy bomber and it failed him.

Peter Hoskin

Clegg binds himself closer to the coalition (for now)

From our UK edition

The quotes emerging, in advance, from Nick Clegg's Westminster Hour interview are a mix of the unsurprising and the intriguing. To the first category belongs his claim that "parties in government tend to get a dip in their popularity" – I mean, he's hardly going to say that the Lib Dems' decline in the polls is a disaster, is he? But this, for instance, belongs firmly in the second category: "If we weren't in a coalition now I don't think people would take any notice of the Liberal Democrats ....  If we were in a coalition with Labour, arguably our identity crisis would be even worse." In other words, the Lib Dems are better off in coalition – and they could well be better off in coalition with the Tories.

James Forsyth

Brittan and the state of politics

From our UK edition

The reaction to Leon Brittan’s appointment tells us three important things about the current political situation. First, the Tory backbenches are becoming increasingly grumpy at jobs going to people other than them. A large number of Tory MPs who had expected ministerial posts missed out because of coalition. Cameron’s failure to write to many of these people thanking them for their service in opposition has made some of them rather bitter. But this resentment has grown in recent weeks as jobs have gone to various other people. The former Tory MP Paul Goodman says what many of his former colleagues are thinking when he writes, ‘There are more than 300 Conservative MPs. Isn't one of them up to the job of being Trade Minister?

Peter Hoskin

Remembering the few

From our UK edition

Today is the 70th anniversary of Winston Churchill's 'Few' speech. Here's how the Spectator reviewed it at the time: Mr Churchill looks ahead, The Spectator, 23 August 1940 Mr Churchill surpassed even his own masterpieces of lucid and spirited exposition in his speech on Tuesday, in which he surveyed the first year of the war and the last exciting days of victory in the air and looked fearlessly into the future. During the previous fortnight, and especially during the previous week, the nation had become aware of the fact that the intensified air attack was part of that onslaught on Britain whose approach was trumpeted in Germany.