Another headache for Andrew Lansley
From our UK edition
The Health Secretary confronted by former Unison rep June Hautot as he arrived for this afternoon's NHS summit at No.
Uk politics
Monday
A question of trust for Andrew Lansley
From our UK edition
It's not too surprising that people trust ‘organisations representing doctors nurses and other health professionals,’ well above David Cameron and Andrew Lansley, when it comes to the NHS reforms. People are sceptical of politicians in a way that they aren't of the health service, its unions and its workers. 64 years of ‘national religion’ status for the NHS, and many more years of gross political let-down, have made sure of that. But today's YouGov findings still shine a fresh light on Cameron and Lansley's changing approach to the reforms.
If Cameron doesn’t talk about greater powers for England, Labour will
From our UK edition
Action over Scotland is certainly producing a reaction in England. It's not what you'd call an ‘equal and opposite reaction’ yet, but it's there — and it's crystallised by Tim Montgomerie's article for the Guardian this morning. I'd recommend that you read it in full, but Tim's basic point is that David Cameron could score a ‘triple crown of political victories’ by moving towards a more federal UK: ‘By offering to extend Scottish devolution he can be the Conservative leader who saves the union. By promising to balance Scottish devolution with a commitment to new arrangements for the government of England, he can radically improve his own party's electoral prospects.
Sunday
The tax debate at the heart of the Budget
From our UK edition
The run-up to last year’s Budget was all about fuel duty. This year it’ll be all about direct taxes. The Lib Dems are determined to put their manifesto pledge of raising the income tax personal allowance to £10,000 front and centre. They already managed to turn this promise into government policy in the Coalition Agreement, and last year’s Budget announced that the threshold would rise to £8,105 in April this year. But Nick Clegg’s made clear that he wants to go ‘further and faster’ on this. The Conservative response at the Treasury – according to today’s Telegraph – is simple: ‘how are they going to pay for it?
Balls the tax-cutter?
From our UK edition
‘Balls urges tax cuts’, we’re told. Has he had a Damascene moment? Has the borrowed penny dropped? Nope, this is his longstanding and cynical campaign to cut VAT. Under the Labour years, when Balls was encouraging Brown to adopt a ‘scorched earth’ policy to the public finances, he urged against raising VAT to 20 per cent as Alistair Darling wanted. Not because he didn’t think it was necessary, but because he knew that if Darling didn’t do it, Osborne would. So VAT could be an election campaign tool, and then a stick with which to beat the wicked Tories (and the Lib Dems, who dropped the ‘VAT bombshell’ that they warned of). There is also politics: Tories prefer taxing consumption to taxing income.
Tory Ministers need to back the Health Bill
From our UK edition
Tomorrow’s Downing Street meeting on the implementation of the health reforms is meant to send the message that the bill is definitely going ahead. Number 10 is keen to shore up the bill ahead of Liberal Democrat Spring Conference following the uncertainty caused by Rachel Sylvester's column and Conservative Home’s call for the bill to be dropped. Indeed, I understand that at the Quad dinner on Monday night, Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander made the basic political point that the Liberal Democrats would feel absolved of the need to support the bill if any Tory minister came out publicly against it. But Tory ministers still need to muster more public enthusiasm for the bill.
Saturday
The green squeeze
From our UK edition
Bjorn Lomborg’s article on why Germany is cutting back on its support for solar power is well worth reading and has clear implication for this country’s debate about energy policy. As Lomborg argues: ‘there is a fundamental problem with subsidizing inefficient green technology: it is affordable only if it is done in tiny, tokenistic amounts. Using the government’s generous subsidies, Germans installed 7.5 gigawatts of photovoltaic (PV) capacity last year, more than double what the government had deemed “acceptable.” It is estimated that this increase alone will lead to a $260 hike in the average consumer’s annual power bill.
Hague’s ‘Cold War’ warning
From our UK edition
William Hague has gazed into his Middle Eastern crystal ball and doesn't like what he sees. In an interview in today's Telegraph, he says of Iran: ‘It is a crisis coming down the tracks, because they are clearly continuing their nuclear weapons programme… If they obtain nuclear weapons capability, then I think other nations across the Middle East will want to develop nuclear weapons. And so, the most serious round of nuclear proliferation since nuclear weapons were invented would have begun with all the destabilising effects in the Middle East. And the threat of a new cold war in the Middle East without necessarily all the safety mechanisms… That would be a disaster in world affairs.
Friday
Cameron’s ECHR problems won’t end with a Qatada deal
From our UK edition
The news that Theresa May will fly to Jordan to continue talks about Abu Qatada shows how close the government thinks it is to a deal with the Jordanians that might satisfy the European Court of Human Rights and allow his deportation. One government source explained to me earlier that the problem is the Jordanians are offended by being asked to provide these guarantees about a fair trial and no evidence being obtained by torture. For this reason, there needs to be a fair amount of diplomatic stroking. A deal with Jordan on Abu Qatada is becoming increasingly necessary if Cameron is get out of this bind on the ECHR, with the Lib Dems on one side and the Tory right on the other.
L’entente nucléaire
From our UK edition
There's no wound that a press conference won't heal, or at least that's the impression that David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy created earlier. The pair played down the tensions and grudging handshakes of the past few months to talk up Britain and France's ‘incredibly strong relationship based on shared interests’. And there was more than just talk too: they announced a £500 million deal between French and British companies for nuclear power plants. And they hailed progress towards the creation of a joint ‘command and control centre’ for military operations.
Miliband’s NHS pledge
From our UK edition
Ah, there he is! With the coalition — and David Cameron — dominating the political news on every day of this half-term week, Ed Miliband has finally caused a ripple in the national consciousness. He's appearing before nurses in Bolton today to make a pledge: ‘Before he became Prime Minister, David Cameron concealed his plans for creeping privatisation of our National Health Service. So people didn’t get a vote on these plans at the last election. But I give you my word that if he goes ahead, they will be a defining issue at the next.’ Put aside the rhetoric about ‘creeping privatisation’ (which would surely make Tony Blair shudder), and it's understandable why Miliband is stressing this point.
Cameron’s new offer for Scotland could mean a new offer for England
From our UK edition
The consensus opinion across most of today's papers appears to be that Dave done good in Scotland yesterday. And now the Prime Minister's cause has been helped that little bit more by the Lords Constitution Committee. ‘We are firmly of the view that any referendum that is held must be a straight choice between full independence or the status-quo,’ says the committee's chairman Baroness Jay. ‘A third “devolution-max” option is clearly something every part of the UK must have a say in as it has the potential to create different and competing tax regimes within the UK.’ The strange thing is, a UK-wide referendum on ‘devo max’ could actually produce the sort of result that Alex Salmond would want.
Thursday
Cameron’s risky move could play into Salmond’s hands
From our UK edition
Not many politicians would conjure up the spectre of Alec Douglas-Home to scare the Prime Minister, but that is exactly what Alex Salmond did today — to some effect. The Scottish First Minister was responding to David Cameron’s ‘jam tomorrow’ offer to the Scottish people. ‘Vote “no” in the independence referendum,’ Mr Cameron effectively told Scots today in his latest attempt to make some progress in the independence debate, ‘And I’ll see that you get major new powers for the Scottish Parliament.’ It was one part bribery, one part political strategy and Mr Salmond was on to it quicker than the average Scot can order a haggis supper.
The Lib Dems prepare their strategy for future coalitions
From our UK edition
Contain your excitement, CoffeeHousers: the Lib Dems are debating whether to change their ‘constitution’ so that their members have a greater say over future coalition negotiations. The amendment has been put forward Tim Farron and Norman Lamb, and proposes that, in the event of coalition talks, the party's ‘negotiating team’ should have to consult with a ‘reference group consisting of not more than nine people appointed equally by…’ blah, blah, blah. In fact, you can just read the whole thing on page 41 of this document. The Lib Dems will be voting on it at their Spring Conference next month.
Cameron’s plan to protect the Union
From our UK edition
‘When the referendum on independence is over, I am open to looking at how the devolved settlement can be improved further. And yes, that means considering what further powers could be devolved.’ These words in David Cameron’s speech today, which follow on from what the Scottish Secretary Michael Moore said at the weekend, make clear what the Unionist campaign’s message will be. They’ll say to the Scottish electorate ‘Vote no to independence and then we can talk about devo-max’. This strategy will probably ensure victory in the referendum. But there are risks to it. First, more constitutional debate will create more uncertainty.
At least it won’t go to penalties…
From our UK edition
Who's winning in the latest match between Vince Cable and the Conservatives? The Business Secretary did take an early lead, with the news that No.10 had grudgingly yielded to his demand to appoint Professor Les Ebdon to the role of ‘university admissions tsar’ — a man who has hardly been kind about the coalition's universities policy in the past, and whose appointment had been blocked by the business select committee. But, according to the Telegraph this morning, the Tory leadership appear to have scored a goal of their own: Cable's proposal for imposing penalties on graduates who pay off their student loans early is to be dropped. We can, and should, cheer the wheezing demise of that policy.
Wednesday
Prescott’s pitch for the police commissioner job
From our UK edition
How strange — John Prescott is fast becoming the poster boy for elected police commissioners. He appeared on the Today Programme earlier to explain why he's putting himself forward for that very job in his home of Humberside. But has he acquiesced to Tory thinking? Don't bet on it. As he told John Humphrys, he doesn't actually support the legislation, but he does believe that Labour should have a man in the fight: ‘The Labour Party didn’t like this legislation and I voted against it, but once there is an election the party isn’t going to stay out of it and they will want to see it doesn’t go the way they feared it might go.’ Which probably explains why Prescott sees the role of elected police commissioners as quite limited.
How to implement a minimum price for alcohol
From our UK edition
Pete posted earlier on the Prime Minister’s latest intervention on the issue of problem drinking. The new proposals — like a greater police presence in A&Es, and ‘drunk tanks’, special units where drunks are taken to sober up — are sensible enough, but seem small relative to the scale of the supposed problem, and focus on peripheral (though important) side-effects, rather than the core of the issue. The ‘big idea’ seems to be missing, even though the Conservatives have been flirting with it for some years, is a minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol: far more controversial, but potentially far more effective. The last Labour government, in which I was an adviser, looked at this idea in some depth.
Post-Moody’s, King backs Osborne
From our UK edition
Moody's doubts might not be making much difference to the actual economy, but they could make a good deal of difference to the political battle being waged over it. George Osborne, of course, is citing this as further proof of the need for fiscal consolidation. Ed Balls, meanwhile, is redoubling his call for a ‘change of course’ — and somewhat misleadingly too. But what does Mervyn King think? Thanks to his comments in a press conference this morning, we don't have to guess.
How can employment and unemployment go up at the same time?
From our UK edition
The employment level has risen since the election, according to today’s figures — albeit only slightly, from 29.0m to 29.1m. But unemployment’s up too: from 2.46m to 2.67m. So how come we’ve seen both more jobs and lengthening dole queues? Well, that’s because the ‘economically active’ population (people who are in work or ‘have been actively seeking work and are available to start work if a job is offered’) has grown faster than employment has. There are now 31.8m people in the UK who fit that description, an increase of 320,000 since the coalition came to power. But with only a 110,000 rise in employment, that means the number of folk unemployed has risen by 210,000.
