Uk politics

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Where will the disenchantment with mainstream politics lead?

From our UK edition

The big question in British politics right now is what happens when the voters are dissatisfied with all the three main parties and their leaders. According to a recent opinion poll, David Cameron’s approval rating is now down to minus 27. According to the invaluable Anthony Wells, this is the lowest it has been since Cameron became Tory leader. But the PM’s numbers look positively healthy compared to Miliband's (minus 41) and Clegg's (minus 53). Dissatisfaction with political leaders isn’t the only indicator that people aren’t happy. As I report in the column this week, senior Downing Street aides have been much struck by polling showing that more than 40 per cent of Britons would emigrate if they could.

Tim Bale

Right to reply: UKIP won’t prevent a Tory majority

From our UK edition

All the recent chatter about UKIP being a big obstacle to a Tory majority in 2015 would be funny if it weren’t so sad. I’m never sure whether those who bring it up really believe it, or whether they’re just desperate to scare their fellow Conservatives into not swinging too far to the supposedly soggy centre. Either way, it simply won’t wash. Basically, the British electorate, like most electorates in advanced democracies, is like one big bell-curve. Most voters like to think of themselves as somewhere in or towards the middle, although there is of course a tail to either side. In PR systems, this tail can be big enough to give less centrist parties enough of niche to make it into parliament.

Jonathan Jones

A welcome attempt to fix the broken energy market

From our UK edition

Back in October, Ofgem produced a report exposing the failure of the UK's energy market. It showed that the supplier's profit margin on the average fuel bill had shot up from £15 to £125 in just four months. As I said at the time, ‘This wouldn't be possible in a market that was working correctly. If customers were shopping around for the best deal, suppliers would have to undercut each other – and there's plenty of room for them to reduce prices while still turning a profit (£125 of room, in fact). But Ofgem's figures show this isn't happening.’ And why isn't it happening? Because, in Ofgem's words, ‘Many consumers see the energy market as complex and hard to navigate.

James Forsyth

Shapps has ‘deep reservations’ about the ‘conservatory tax’

From our UK edition

There is deep unease among Tory ministers about the proposals for a so-called ‘conservatory tax’. The idea, which was pushed hard by Chris Huhne when he was Energy Secretary, is that when anyone does substantial home improvement work they would be made to make other changes to make their house more energy efficient. It is estimated that this would add about 10 percent to the cost of adding a conservatory or an extension to your house. The government is currently consulting on the policy. But I understand that Grant Shapps, the housing minister, has ‘deep reservations’ about it. He fears that the proposals are anti-aspiration and could risk bolstering the impression that the coalition is out of touch.

Sebastian Payne

The rise of UKIP

From our UK edition

Who represents the biggest obstacle to a Tory majority in 2015? The natural assumption is Labour, but it's looking more and more likely that the party David Cameron should be most worried about is UKIP. Tim Montgomerie has written in the Times this morning (£) about the reason behind this, the 'split of the right-wing vote': 'Team Cameron has always believed that the Tories’ right-wing voters could pretty much be taken for granted. The theory was that they had nowhere else to go and that Mr Cameron had to devote all his energy to winning swing voters.

Tuesday

Jonathan Jones

What today’s Abu Hamza ruling means

From our UK edition

The European Court of Human Rights has ruled that five terror suspects, including notorious Islamist cleric Abu Hamza, can be deported to the United States — a decision welcomed by both David Cameron and Theresa May. Last year, Hamza and three of the other men appealed to the ECtHR against extradition to the US on a whole host of grounds — including that they might face the death penalty and that their trials would be prejudiced.

Jonathan Jones

Cameron pushes back on snooping powers

From our UK edition

It seems David Cameron's found a neat way of needling his coalition partners over their resistance to the so-called 'snooper's charter'. Last week, Nick Clegg insisted on proper pre-legislative scrutiny before any expansion of surveillance powers goes ahead, while a group of Lib Dem MPs wrote a letter in the Guardian declaring that: 'It continues to be essential that our civil liberties are safeguarded, and that the state is not given the powers to snoop on its citizens at will.' And Lib Dem president Tim Farron told the BBC that his party is 'prepared to kill' the proposals 'if it comes down to it'. 'If we think this is a threat to a free and liberal society,' he said, 'then there would be no question of unpicking them or compromising'. So now Cameron's pushing back.

Sebastian Payne

When it comes to personality, Boris will always win 

From our UK edition

The fight for London Mayor election has well and truly descended into a clash of personalities. Policies have all but disappeared while candidates trade attacks in the press. The Guardian, duly unimpressed, has written a scathing leader attacking both sides for this strategy: ‘The early days of the London campaign have fallen well short of what the voters are entitled to expect. Almost everything has been focused on the egos, lifestyles and personalities of the two main candidates, Boris Johnson of the Conservatives and Ken Livingstone for Labour. Mr Johnson, arguably a better mayor than some feared but evasive and woolly on the detail as ever, has run a deliberately negative campaign with little vision.

Jonathan Jones

Motorman returns

From our UK edition

  Guido Fawkes has caused a stir this morning by releasing a section of the Operation Motorman files, naming those News International journalists thought to have paid for private information. But so far, Guido's splash tells us little that we didn't already know: he has lots of information, but has only released the names of News International journalists. Back in July, Peter Oborne wrote a cover piece on the extent of all this for The Spectator entitled 'What the papers won't say', in which he said: 'The truth is that very few newspapers can declare themselves entirely innocent of buying illegal information from private detectives.

James Forsyth

The teachers’ unions take on Ofsted, Osborne and Gove

From our UK edition

I counted five issues which the NUT conference suggested that teachers might strike over. But in a conference full of the usual bluster, the most noteworthy threat was not to cooperate with Ofsted inspections. Ever since the new chief inspector Sir Michael Wilshaw — who was hugely successful as the head of Mossbourne academy — announced that a merely satisfactory grade would no longer be regarded as good enough, the teaching unions have taken agin him. But not cooperating with Oftsed would be unlawful. Anyone who tried to block an inspection would be liable to prosecution and a fine. Another issue exercising the unions is George Osborne’s proposals for regional pay for the public sector.

Jonathan Jones

Osborne’s tax avoidance clampdown

From our UK edition

So, George Osborne has taken a look at the tax arrangements of some of the UK’s wealthiest people. And his reaction? ‘Shocked’, apparently — or so he’s told the Telegraph: ‘I was shocked to see that some of the very wealthiest people in the country have organised their tax affairs, and to be fair it’s within the tax laws, so that they were regularly paying virtually no income tax. And I don’t think that’s right. I’m talking about people right at the top. I’m talking about people with incomes of many millions of pounds a year. The general principle is that people should pay income tax and that includes people with the highest incomes.

Monday

James Forsyth

The Tory leadership is still fighting John Major’s battles

From our UK edition

Bruce Anderson has written a typically trenchant piece today describing the Tory party’s treatment of John Major as ‘the most unworthy, the most shameful, period in Tory history.’ Based on both how close Bruce is to those around David Cameron and my own conversations, I would say that this is a verdict that many in the Tory leadership would agree with. Indeed, the way in which Major was treated by some Tory backbenches has informed — often with calamitous consequences — Cameron’s approach to party management. Take, for instance, Cameron’s effort straight after the election to neuter the 1922 Committee and turn it into the Conservative Parliamentary Party.

Rod Liddle

A few Easter questions

From our UK edition

Apologies for my absence from this area: I took my two boys away for an uplifting week of cycling on a windswept and pretty Dutch island. I suppose they might have burned off a few more calories if I’d let them loose in the Rossebuurt for a few hours, but I’m getting respectable and middle class in old age. We flew back into Southend Airport, which was was an absolute joy: four minutes from disembarking we were out of the airport building. This may be the best use yet that anyone has thought of for Essex. A few questions about puzzling news stories which occurred whilst I was away: 1.) Why is Boris Johnson getting stick over his tax arrangements? (I know he has now declared all and is squeaky clean).

Matthew Sinclair

We need a crack down on tax avoidance

From our UK edition

After the Budget there was a lot of anger over the pasty tax and the granny tax. Another big rise — in tobacco taxes — didn't make as many headlines, because it wasn't much of a surprise. But for someone smoking a pack a day it almost wiped out the entire value of the rise in the Personal Allowance. Given that most smokers earn relatively low incomes, it was probably the most regressive measure in the Budget. The idea is that smokers are supposed to be grateful for this impetus to give up. Many will keep smoking though, and this will just be yet another strain on their household budgets. Some will respond by buying more from the illicit market.

Sebastian Payne

The coalition split draws nearer

From our UK edition

Why did Nick Clegg change his mind on the snooping bill? Because he can't afford to back something that his party rejects — like the NHS Bill. Over the next few weeks, we will see Clegg impaled on the horns of yet another policy dillema as the government decides what to put in the surveillance bill. The president of the Liberal Democrats, Tim Farron, has laid out his position in the Times (£) this morning: 'I am prepared to recognise that there is obviously a need in modern society with new technology to have a look at what needs to be given to the security services but only if it is absolutely clear there is universal access...but we are prepared to kill them, be absolutely clear about that, if it comes down to it.

Sunday

Fraser Nelson

Sadly, the 47p tax rate is here to stay

From our UK edition

Nothing is more permanent than a ‘temporary’ government tax, as George Osborne is reminding us. When Alistair Darling proposed a 45p rate in 2008, even the Institute of Fiscal Studies said it would lose money – but Darling said it would be 'temporary'. Brown upped it to 50p, Osborne took it back down to 45p but the 'temporary' status has been revoked. The Sunday Times has today splashed on Osborne’s interview with Robert Winnett of The Daily Telegraph, where the Chancellor said 'I’m very happy with the 45p rate of tax. We’ve got it to a good place where it’s competitive.' Britain had the highest top rate of tax in the G20, now it has the third-highest.

James Forsyth

Mr Cameron goes to Leveson

From our UK edition

One of the media’s vices is to assume that the public are as interested in stories about journalism as journalists are. This always makes me slightly reluctant to write about the Leveson inquiry - more fascinating for my trade than to anybody else. But the Leveson inquiry is about to enter its political phase which, I think, makes it more relevant. Politicians will start appearing before it from towards the end of next month and, as I say in the Mail on Sunday, David Cameron is scheduled to face the inquiry which he created in mid-June. Six other Cabinet ministers are expected to be summoned before the inquiry. For Cameron, this is going to be a tricky moment (think horses, Oxfordshire weekends etc).

Saturday

Sebastian Payne

Has Osborne fully considered his transparency promise?

From our UK edition

Will Osborne come to regret his new-found transparency zeal? This week's saga from the London Mayoral candidates highlights how financial disclosures can not be all they seem. For Osborne to fulfil his promise, we need full details of not just income and tax returns, but also assets in which they are stakeholders and companies through which they work. Brian Paddick's release is an excellent model to follow, as opposed to Ken Livingstone's decision to release just a few summary figures. If Team Miliband happened to be on the ball, there is also a great opportunity to pip the government with a universal full disclosure. This would be following Osborne's own lead — he oversaw the first such breakdown whilst in opposition.

James Forsyth

Osborne’s Easter gift to Boris

From our UK edition

George Osborne indicating that he is open to him and other ministers having to publish their tax returns is testament to two things. First, the Tory leadership, who know how crucial a Boris victory in London is to the Cameron project regaining momentum, is keen to keep the pressure on Ken Livingstone over his tax affairs. They have no desire to let a row over whether they’ll publish theirs distract attention from the problems of Labour’s mayoral candidate. As Osborne himself stresses in the Telegraph interview, “The reason we are talking about this now is that this is a smokescreen for Ken Livingstone’s tax affairs. Let’s not take the focus off him.

Friday

Fraser Nelson

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Tax Evader

From our UK edition

Rather than respond to CoffeeHousers in the comment thread of my blog earlier, I thought I'd do it in a post (and also take in some of the comments from Twitter and my Telegraph piece). I’ve been accused of "starting to sound like a leftie" - and for what it’s worth, I don’t sign up to the David Davis civil liberties agenda. Not all of it, anyway. I’m all for snooping if it helps catch murderers or jihadis. But what I don’t like is this age-old politicians trick of pushing a whole load of powers through in the name of ‘national security’ then, next thing you know, the council is trawling your email data.