Uk politics

Cameron’s anti-terror statement sets out autumn battles

From our UK edition

So, after the horsetrading of the past few days, the Conservatives appear to have won their battle to add relocation powers to the terrorism prevention and investigation measures. In his statement in the Commons this afternoon, David Cameron said: 'We will introduce new powers to add to our existing terrorism prevention and investigation measures, including stronger locational constraints on suspects under TPIMs either through enhanced use of exclusion zones or through relocation powers.' The Prime Minister also confirmed: Police will gain the power to seize passports at the border temporarily so that they can investigate an individual. This power will include safeguards and oversight arrangements.

Cameron does not have as much time as he’d like on European reform

From our UK edition

What should worry David Cameron more, Douglas Carswell's defection to Ukip or reports that as many as 100 Tory MPs could go into the general election pledging to leave the European Union? The former is certainly more dramatic and promises plenty of humiliation over the next few months. But the latter could show the Prime Minister that he doesn't have as much time on European reform as he would like, and that he is still not trusted by a large contingent of his party. It is one thing for Better Off Out members such as Mark Reckless to pledge to campaign to leave, no matter what reforms David Cameron manages to secure.

Coalition minds the gap on anti-terror measures

From our UK edition

The Coalition parties are gearing up for a week of minding the gaps. Tomorrow, David Cameron plans to tell MPs about measures that he feels are necessary for plugging the gaps in Britain's armoury. They're gaps highlighted to him by the intelligence and security services, and where the Tories once said they would be very sceptical about gaps, whether they existed, and whether it was right to plug them, the Prime Minister seems pretty keen to listen to the spooks. But the Lib Dems are still cross about the gaps, and possibly cross about another change of heart from the Conservatives.

If Carswell was serious about Europe, he would never have defected

From our UK edition

Where is this burning point of principle that drove Douglas Carswell into the arms of Ukip? I’ve read lots about his defection, and I’m still none the wiser. We’re told that he was talking to Farage for almost a year, which would have overlapped with the time he told me that the Tories need to unite behind Cameron because he was the only one promising an in-out referendum. What has changed? Carswell says that Cameron is not serious about Europe. The Prime Minister has become the only leader in the continent to promise an in-out referendum. I’m not sure how much more serious one can be. Should he lay out, now, what he wants in a renegotiation? Of course not – it would be rendered rapidly out of date.

Ukip set for crushing Clacton win

From our UK edition

David Cameron and the Tories’ electoral hopes are about to take a long walk on Clacton’s short pier. A poll in the Mail on Sunday today has Ukip on 64% and the Tories on 20%, a lead that suggests this contest is over before the writ has even been moved. So, Ukip are going to get their first MP. This means that the fracture on the right of British politics is a lot closer to becoming permanent, handing Labour the kind of inherent electoral advantage that the Tories enjoyed in the 1980s. This morning, the next election is Ed Miliband’s to lose. One of the striking things about the poll is that it reveals that not even Boris can save the Tories in Clacton. Cameron had hoped that his ‘star striker’ could get him out of this hole.

I’ve been called a paedophile, a terrorist and a Quisling: Jim Murphy on the ‘Yes’ mob

From our UK edition

I have had to suspend my 'No Thanks' independence referendum tour of Scotland. It was back in June that I announced my plan to tour the country.  A hundred events.  All outdoors in Scotland's summer.  Me, my makeshift stage of two upturned Irn-bru crates, a microphone, one of those small speaker-amps, a one or two-strong road crew, take it to the streets. 'From Barrhead to Barra' was my catchline.   Barrhead is in my constituency and is synonymous with an industrial Scotland, a half hour’s drive from Glasgow.  Barra is another Scotland, twelve hundred largely Gaelic-speaking fishers and crofters at the southern end of the Western Isles archipelago.  The tour is old school politics, reconnecting. Thousands of people have taken part.

Campaign against Bercow’s Clerk plan reaches 84 supporters

From our UK edition

Monday will be a busy day in the Commons. Speaker Bercow is expected to give a statement on the swelling row over his plan to appoint Carol Mills as Clerk of the House (or another mysterious new role that he's considering concocting in an attempt to calm the feud with backbenchers). That feud is getting more and more vocal, so Bercow had better have something decent to tell MPs when he does speak. The early day motion tabled by Jesse Norman and Natascha Engel will only appear on the order paper on Monday, but the campaign has 84 supporters now (not all will sign the motion as some avoid EDMs out of principle). Since Coffee House revealed the original list, Nigel Dodds, Cheryl Gillan, Rob Wilson, Nigel Evans, Kwasi Kwarteng and Peter Bottomley have all added their support.

Ukip should beware distracting from its Carswell coup with talk of other defections

From our UK edition

Stuart Wheeler has just been boasting on Sky News that two more Conservative MPs are 'seriously considering' defecting to Ukip. Wheeler has been the broker in any potential defections, wining and dining potential converts before asking if they want a meeting with Nigel Farage. Not all of them have said yes to that second offer. It is, though, plausible that there are MPs who are still not rock solid in their decision to back the Tories all the way to the next election. The result of the Clacton by-election, how David Cameron plays the Europe question and how he manages the party over the next few months will determine whether they do go or not.

Even without more defections, the pressure is back on Cameron

From our UK edition

What will be the impact on the Conservative party of Douglas Carswell's defection? Even though there is some excitement this morning about other meetings that Ukip has held with Conservative MPs, it is worth pointing out that those meetings were firstly held a while ago, and secondly that a number of those MPs who did meet Stuart Wheeler decided not to meet Nigel Farage because that would have been a betrayal in itself of their party. Some did meet Farage, but decided not to make the leap. Carswell was one of those MPs who initially did not make that leap, so it is unwise to say that there will be no more defections. But when Coffee House spoke to most of those MPs yesterday, none of them had changed their mind as a result of this defection.

Douglas Carswell has decided Cameron will squander his EU reform opportunity

From our UK edition

As well as saying his decision is regrettable and counterproductive, the other Tory response to this morning's shock defection by Douglas Carswell is to point people to instances where Carswell has said that only David Cameron as Prime Minister in 2017 will guarantee a referendum. In April, he wrote on his Telegraph blog: 'In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.'   Suggesting he is inconsistent is at least a little more nuanced than smearing him as a 'headbanger'. But what Carswell's defection today tells us is that he doesn't actually think that referendum will be worth it anyway.

Tory whips tell MPs: We will fight Carswell vigorously

From our UK edition

The Tory whips have just sent their line-to-take on Douglas Carswell to MPs. Seen by Coffee House, the email repeats the Tory spokesman line that this is a 'regrettable and frankly counter-productive decision' as the only way to get a referendum is to vote Conservative. It adds: 'The Conservative party will contest the by-election vigorously, to ensure that the people of Clacton have a strong Conservative voice in this Parliament and the next.' But the question is whether many Tory MPs will be happy to put in the same kind of effort in Clacton as they did in Newark? Fighting a former colleague - and a respected one at that - is going to be very difficult for many backbenchers.

Douglas Carswell’s defection is a disaster for David Cameron and great news for Ed Miliband

From our UK edition

I like Douglas Carswell. He thinks for himself and has always, I think, added some welcome colour to parliament. But I don't understand his defection to UKIP at all. If nothing else it makes it more likely that Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister next May. Which in turn dramatically reduces the likelihood there will be an EU referendum in the next parliament. Which is the the matter with which Carswell is most concerned. He is leaving the Conservatives because he thinks - correctly - that David Cameron will eventually recommend that Britain remain a member of the European Union. Fine. But it is quixotic to leave a party that can actually deliver what you want and join one that can't. That is what Carswell has done.

Exclusive: 74 MPs support campaign against Bercow’s clerk appointment

From our UK edition

The cross-party group of MPs opposing John Bercow's appointment of Carol Mills as Clerk of the House have now submitted their early day motion designed to stop the Speaker going ahead without scrutiny. The motion is co-sponsored by Tory Jesse Norman and Labour chair of the Backbench Business Committee Natascha Engel. Coffee House understands that 66 MPs from the three major parties have signed the EDM (all the more impressive given MPs are still on recess) and at least a further eight MPs will support the call for a debate on select committee pre-hearings before any appointment is made. The list of those 74 MPs who support this campaign is below.

Breaking: Boris Johnson to stand in Uxbridge

From our UK edition

Boris Johnson has confirmed that he is going to apply to be the Conservative candidate for Uxbridge and South Ruislip. His announcement comes on the same day that Nigel Farage is expected to be confirmed as the Ukip candidate for South Thanet, which suggests that the Conservatives are keen to use Boris as their anti-Farage weapon. More to follow...

Not Tonight, Darling

From our UK edition

Well that was a gubbing. No doubt about it. Alex Salmond won last night's debate against Alistair Darling just as thoroughly as he'd lost their first encounter. Sure, some Unionists tried to put a cheerful spin on it - "We'll take that" one senior Labour figure told me - but don't you believe any of it. Salmond, as predicted, was much better than he had been in the first debate. Darling, as predicted, was much worse. File this encounter in the drawer marked reversion to the mean. Darling had many problems last night but among the greatest was the fact he's not a Tory. Time and time again Salmond stuck him with the "in bed with the Tories" jibe and took great pleasure in seeing Darling squeal and wriggle. It's not fair! Well, tough.

Revealed: the cross-party motion to stop Bercow in his tracks over clerk appointment

From our UK edition

With just a few days before the House of Commons returns for the autumn term, the revolt against John Bercow's plan to appoint Carol Mills as Clerk of the House is growing. Coffee House has seen a motion that a cross-party group of MPs plan to table to stop the Speaker in his tracks. The motion, which I understand has the support of more than 50 MPs from all three main parties, including PPSs, does not attempt to block the appointment, but simply calls for a pre-appointment hearing and report (which could lead to a recommendation that Mills not be appointed). It says: 'That this House believes that the recommendation of Ms Carol Mills to be Clerk of this House should be subject to, and contingent upon, a pre-appointment hearing and report by a select committee.

Salmond and Darling’s Jeremy Kyle debate reinvigorates campaign

From our UK edition

Both camps in the Scottish independence debate have now has their shock: Alex Salmond was shaken to be beaten by Alistair Darling in the first debate, while a confident Darling seemed shaken last night that the First Minister wasn't giving identical answers to the questions he repeated from his initial victorious round. As we discussed on our View from 22 special podcast last night, it is very difficult to predict the impact of a resounding victory last night for Salmond on the final result.

Alex Salmond vs Alistair Darling, the Rematch

From our UK edition

Like Paradise Lost, no-one - not even humble freelance hacks - ever wished the Scottish independence referendum campaign longer. We are, most of us, exhausted. Almost all passion has been spent. Which is just as well since, frankly, people are beginning to lose the run of themselves. Take the ice bucket challenge. (Readers unfamiliar with social media may be unfamiliar with this. It is a fundraising challenge - originally for Motor Neurone Disease research - in which the hapless gallant stooge is soaked by a bucket of iced water. All to prove what a good egg they are. They then nominate other folk to be soaked to prove what grand eggs they are. And so on.) Clearly this is the sort of thing that must be ruined by politicians.

Boris Johnson is not fit to be leader of the Tory party, never mind Prime Minister

From our UK edition

Awkward, especially here, I know, but there you have it. But, look, if any other high-profile politician were suggesting the burden of proof in criminal trials should be switched from the accuser to the accused we'd be properly - in both senses - appalled. So we should be appalled that Boris suggests in his Telegraph column today that anyone travelling to Iraq or Syria should be presumed a jihadist unless and until they can prove otherwise. The state will not have to make a case you convict you but you must make a case to avoid conviction. And, lo, centuries of criminal law are undone. Worse still, I think, Boris considers this 'a minor change' to the law. What, one wonders, would constitute a major change? 'It is hard' Boris laments, 'to press charges without evidence'.