Uk politics

Ed Miliband would never have seen it coming, but he's starting his first PMQs of the autumn term in a jolly good place. Labour MPs that I've spoken to over the past few days are now panicking not about how they can convince voters to back them but what on earth they're actually going to do when they are in government. Naturally the Labour leader can attack on Douglas Carswell's defection to Ukip, but there are two reasons why he might not want to make this his first question. The first is that he would surely want to contrast some of the serious things that Labour has been talking about this week - on class sizes and deficit reduction - with the Tory party tearing itself up over Europe and Ukip. That would require the first few questions to be on schools or another serious matter.

How do the Conservatives make the Clacton by-election more difficult for Douglas Carswell? I hear from two extremely well-placed sources that the selection for the Tory candidate will be an open primary. Carswell himself bemoaned the demise of this selection method when he announced he was leaving the party to join Ukip, and party sources have been muttering for a few days that the authority of the new Ukip candidate is rather undermined by his decision to shunt the poor, bewildered local Ukip chap, Roger Lord, out of the way. Now sources tell me that the party will revive open primaries for this election to make it more difficult for Carswell.

Tonight brings a reminder that the Union is in real danger. A new YouGov poll has the No camp’s lead in the Scottish referendum down to just six points. Just a month ago, No had a 22 point lead with You Gov. This poll is particularly striking as YouGov’s polling has not been as favourable to Yes as that of other pollsters; this is Yes’s highest ever score with YouGov. Particularly worrying is that undecided voters are going Yes by a margin of two to one. If this poll is right about how much the gap has narrowed and the undecideds continue to break in the same way, then this referendum could come down to who has the better ground operation. It is, obviously, only those who live in Scotland who have a vote in this referendum.

The Coalition parties are gearing up for a week of minding the gaps. Tomorrow, David Cameron plans to tell MPs about measures that he feels are necessary for plugging the gaps in Britain's armoury. They're gaps highlighted to him by the intelligence and security services, and where the Tories once said they would be very sceptical about gaps, whether they existed, and whether it was right to plug them, the Prime Minister seems pretty keen to listen to the spooks. But the Lib Dems are still cross about the gaps, and possibly cross about another change of heart from the Conservatives.

I have had to suspend my 'No Thanks' independence referendum tour of Scotland. It was back in June that I announced my plan to tour the country.  A hundred events.  All outdoors in Scotland's summer.  Me, my makeshift stage of two upturned Irn-bru crates, a microphone, one of those small speaker-amps, a one or two-strong road crew, take it to the streets. 'From Barrhead to Barra' was my catchline.   Barrhead is in my constituency and is synonymous with an industrial Scotland, a half hour’s drive from Glasgow.  Barra is another Scotland, twelve hundred largely Gaelic-speaking fishers and crofters at the southern end of the Western Isles archipelago.  The tour is old school politics, reconnecting. Thousands of people have taken part.

Monday will be a busy day in the Commons. Speaker Bercow is expected to give a statement on the swelling row over his plan to appoint Carol Mills as Clerk of the House (or another mysterious new role that he's considering concocting in an attempt to calm the feud with backbenchers). That feud is getting more and more vocal, so Bercow had better have something decent to tell MPs when he does speak. The early day motion tabled by Jesse Norman and Natascha Engel will only appear on the order paper on Monday, but the campaign has 84 supporters now (not all will sign the motion as some avoid EDMs out of principle). Since Coffee House revealed the original list, Nigel Dodds, Cheryl Gillan, Rob Wilson, Nigel Evans, Kwasi Kwarteng and Peter Bottomley have all added their support.

As well as saying his decision is regrettable and counterproductive, the other Tory response to this morning's shock defection by Douglas Carswell is to point people to instances where Carswell has said that only David Cameron as Prime Minister in 2017 will guarantee a referendum. In April, he wrote on his Telegraph blog: 'In order to exit the EU, we need David Cameron to be Prime Minister in 2017 – the year when we will get the In/Out referendum, our chance to vote to leave the EU.'   Suggesting he is inconsistent is at least a little more nuanced than smearing him as a 'headbanger'. But what Carswell's defection today tells us is that he doesn't actually think that referendum will be worth it anyway.

The cross-party group of MPs opposing John Bercow's appointment of Carol Mills as Clerk of the House have now submitted their early day motion designed to stop the Speaker going ahead without scrutiny. The motion is co-sponsored by Tory Jesse Norman and Labour chair of the Backbench Business Committee Natascha Engel. Coffee House understands that 66 MPs from the three major parties have signed the EDM (all the more impressive given MPs are still on recess) and at least a further eight MPs will support the call for a debate on select committee pre-hearings before any appointment is made. The list of those 74 MPs who support this campaign is below.

Boris Johnson has confirmed that he is going to apply to be the Conservative candidate for Uxbridge and South Ruislip. His announcement comes on the same day that Nigel Farage is expected to be confirmed as the Ukip candidate for South Thanet, which suggests that the Conservatives are keen to use Boris as their anti-Farage weapon. More to follow...