Uk politics

Wednesday

James Forsyth

Final polls put No ahead

From our UK edition

The last YouGov poll of the campaign, which has a far larger than usual sample size, has No ahead 52-48. The last phone poll of the campaign, a Survation effort, has No up 53-47. So, the No campaign is ahead by a clear but small margin. [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/3gFhn/index.html"] The Sun’s political editor Tom Newton Dunn reports that YouGov finds that men in Scotland favour independence 54 to 46 but women back the Union 57 to 43. Its numbers show that only 4 per cent of voters remain undecided. Interestingly, those from the rest of the UK who have moved to Scotland—those living the Union—are voting No by a 72 to 28 landslide. By contrast, Scottish born Scots are split 50/50 on the independence question.

Alex Massie

Yes or No, the little white rose of Scotland will bloom again

From our UK edition

And so our watch is all but over. Who knows what comes tomorrow but at least and at last the final reckoning is upon us. It is choosing time and there's no escape. Few people would wish the campaign any longer. Many voters tired of it some time ago. Their minds were made-up and would not change and they just wanted to move on to the next story. Whatever it may be. But I can't agree with the people who fret that this has been a nasty and divisive and awful experience. It hasn't. I mean, of course it's been divisive and of course passions have been running high but that's because it matters. You can't have a non-divisive referendum. This is a good thing I think and I think this is an argument we've needed to have. If not now, when?

Isabel Hardman

Why a ‘No’ voter hurled abuse at ‘Yes’ campaigners

From our UK edition

I've just watched a passionate, informed debate about politics taking place on a street corner between three ordinary people. I've never seen that before. I should be thrilled, but instead I'm not. Why? That debate followed the first bad language and bad feeling I've personally witnessed while following campaigners from both sides of the Scottish independence debate around in Glasgow and Lanarkshire. I was with two 'Yes' activists, Jim Flynn and Neil Molloy, in Kelvin today, watching them delivering leaflets to residents of the gorgeous tenement blocks near the river.

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

‘No’ quietly confident on campaign trail

From our UK edition

I've just spent a couple of hours on the Burnhill estate in Rutherglen watching a group of Labour 'No' campaigners knock on the doors of voters to find out how they'll be voting on Thursday. Burnhill is a tidy estate of mostly social housing and a Labour council ward. The local Labour MP Tom Greatrex and his colleague Graham Jones, visiting from Hyndburn, were part of the group. I was surprised by the number of 'No' posters on display in the windows. I was expecting a plethora of 'Yes' placards, but fewer indications of the households whose inhabitants plan to reject independence, but on this estate at least, it's not the case. The activists say many, many more 'No' posters have appeared in the days since the shock Sunday Times poll that showed 'Yes' moving into the lead.

Alex Massie

Is Scotland confident enough to vote No?

From our UK edition

We hold this truth to be self-evident: we are not an oppressed people. We have some liberty to chart our own course. We are, after all, choosing our path this week. We do not crave self-determination because we have always had that power. And many others besides that significant liberty. We are a free people. This is obvious yet also something worth recalling in these final hours. I have my own reasons for voting No on Thursday and, in truth, they have little to do with very much that has been said by the official Better Together campaign. But this kind of choice, this kind of referendum, inevitably prods one towards endorsing one team or the other. It is Rangers or Celtic and, in the end, there's no room for Partick Thistle or Queens Park or anyone else.

Isabel Hardman

Lib Dems switch on the sunshine – and attack ‘sinister’ Yes tactics

From our UK edition

The Lib Dems have just launched the final leg of their campaign against Scottish independence, which is a poster van with Charles Kennedy's head emblazoned across it and three of the United Kingdom's greatest achievements: the NHS, the pound and the BBC. It's part of their 'sunshine strategy' to talk up the benefits of the Union in the final few days, and the four Lib Dems who launched this van - Danny Alexander, Charles Kennedy, Jo Swinson and Willie Rennie - argued that they had been saying all sorts of lovely sunshiny things about the United Kingdom all along, but they just weren't as well-reported as all the warnings.

Isabel Hardman

Indyref: The promise, and its problems

From our UK edition

The three Westminster leaders have made their promise. On the front page of the Daily Record, they all sign up to a vow that includes new powers for the Scottish Parliament, the continuation of the Barnett formula, and a promise that the Scottish Parliament will have the last word on health spending, and on keeping the NHS in public hands. Since Gordon Brown unveiled the timetable for this vow last Monday, the parties have needed to repeat their pledges as often as possible so that as many voters pick them up before polling day, and so that they really appear to mean it. But here are a number of problems with the vow. 1. Promise-breaking politicians make another promise, Scotland shrugs. Why would you believe the Westminster politicians you're fed up with anyway?

Monday

Isabel Hardman

David Cameron’s final plea to Scottish voters

From our UK edition

David Cameron has just delivered one of the best speeches of his career in Aberdeen. It was emotional, sincere, clear. The Prime Minister pleaded with Scots to stay in the United Kingdom. It ranged from warnings that this would be a permanent separation - 'when people vote on Thursday they are not just voting for themselves, but for their children and grandchildren and the generations beyond'- to powerful images of something the peoples of the Union have built being torn apart: 'For the people of Scotland to walk away now would be like painstakingly building a home – and then walking out the door and throwing away the keys. So I would say to everyone voting on Thursday, please remember. This isn’t just any old country. This is the United Kingdom. This is our country.

Sunday

The Spectator

Please stay to build a better Britain: more Spectator readers write to Scots

From our UK edition

This week's Spectator cover piece is written by our readers. Here are some more letters to Scottish voters, explaining why our United Kingdom should stay together. I come from the Isles of Scilly, which is as far away from Scotland as it’s possible to get whilst remaining in the UK. Flung out into the Atlantic ocean, 28 miles off Land’s End, I have always thought of my islands as part of the great Celtic fringe of this Kingdom. All I can do is plead with the people of Scotland to look beyond an opportunity to 'shake off Tory rule' and to consider instead how fortunate it is to be born British, and how much Scotland means to the rest of this country.

James Forsyth

The case for Britain is being made in Scotland, now it must be made in England too

From our UK edition

At times in the last few months, it has seemed that if no one was making the case for Britain in Scotland. Too often it seemed that Better Together knew the price of separation but not the value of Britishness. But that is changing. Yes closing the gap, and taking the lead in a couple of polls, has prompting an outpouring of emotion about the United Kingdom from those on the No side. At a pro-Union event in Edinburgh on Friday night, I was struck by how speakers from Gordon Brown to Danny Alexander to George Galloway all talked about Britishness in raw, emotional terms. This focus on Britishness is long over-due. The Guardian’s ICM poll finds that among No voters the most popular reason for voting No is their feelings about the UK.

Saturday

Isabel Hardman

Latest indyref polls give mixed message

From our UK edition

Who will be relieved and reassured when they read this weekend's polls on how Thursday's independence referendum will go? Well, it looks like neither camp has much to celebrate as the polls are all over the place - which means that anything could happen in just a few days' time. So here's what we know so far. Opinium has 'No' with a six point lead at 53 per cent, with 'Yes' on 47 per cent. Meanwhile an ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph puts 'Yes' eight points ahead. A Panelbase poll comes out later tonight. It's also worth noting this post from John Curtice, which says the ICM finding 'while not wholly disregarded, should clearly be viewed with caution' because of a smaller sample size.

Isabel Hardman

Boris selected: what’s next for the Tory leadership hopeful?

From our UK edition

Unsurprisingly, Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservatives picked Boris Johnson last night as their parliamentary candidate for the 2015 election. Boris has a 11,216 majority to defend, but that's only the start of the work he needs to do. His supporters are well aware that before the Mayor can ever throw his hat into that leadership ring that they're all looking forward to, he needs to build better links in the Parliamentary Conservative party beyond those who already think he is wonderful. He needs to reach out, for instance, to those MPs who have been brought into the George Osborne camp by the Chancellor's clever system of patronage and promotion.

James Forsyth

Who will revive Scottish Labour?

From our UK edition

George Galloway announced his support for Gordon Brown as First Minister of Scotland last night. Galloway’s endorsement came as Brown turned up at an event at Usher Hall in Edinburgh that Galloway was compering. The endorsement was met with a broad grin by Brown. But behind the humour, there is a serious point, Scottish Labour knows that it has given Salmond and the SNP far too easy a ride at Holyrood. As the former Labour Minister Brian Wilson acknowledged at last night's event, this referendum is happening because the SNP managed to win a majority in the Scottish Parliament and Labour must take some of the blame for that. That this referendum is so close is also because so many traditional Labour voters are now backing independence.

Friday

Isabel Hardman

How the ‘No’ camp should react to its regained poll lead

From our UK edition

Anyone who thinks that the latest YouGov poll on Scottish independence, which shows the 'No' camp with a six-point lead over 'Yes' at 52 per cent to 48 per cent (once don't-knows are excluded) is getting a little ahead of themselves. It is significant that this is the same pollster who sent Westminster into panic on Sunday with its poll putting 'Yes' in the lead. But the only effect this poll should have on the 'No' campaign in the final days is to stop a blind, useless sort of panic where bad decisions are made and colleagues brief against one another before the final result.

Thursday

Isabel Hardman

What would the Tory party really do if Scotland voted ‘yes’?

From our UK edition

Even when it is at peace, the Conservative party deals in hypotheticals all of which involve David Cameron being ousted in one way or another. That's why backbenchers have been wargaming what will happen to David Cameron if Scotland votes 'Yes' next week. It's why 1922 Committee executive members have been calling fellow MPs, or pouncing on them in the corridors (one spent a good long time lurking in one particular corridor in Parliament yesterday, snaring backbenchers) to find out what they would do if the worst happens in the referendum. Everyone agrees that a 'Yes' vote would be seriously damaging to the Prime Minister and that it would lead to a vote of no confidence. Serial troublemakers are making detailed plans for this to happen.

Isabel Hardman

Alex Salmond’s persecution complex

From our UK edition

Alex Salmond gave a very good speech earlier today about why Scots should vote for independence. It was full of the sort of emotion and rhetoric that the 'No' campaign is only now beginning to summon in the final few days of campaigning. He said: 'A 'Yes' vote is about building something better. It is about the growing acceptance across virtually every community in Scotland that no-one, absolutely no-one, is better-placed to govern Scotland than the people here ourselves. No-one cares more about this country, and no-one will do a better job of governing this country than the people of Scotland.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

New poll puts No ahead in the Scottish referendum campaign

From our UK edition

Tonight brings the first morale boost for the No campaign in a wee while, a Daily Record poll has them 53-47 ahead. Including don’t knows, the numbers are No 47.6%, Yes 42.4% and don’t know 9.9%. A while back, a 53-47 poll would have been regarded as alarming by the No camp. But a week is a long time in politics and tonight’s numbers will be seen as a reassuring sign that a Salmond victory is not inevitable and that independence doesn’t have unstoppable momentum. Particularly reassuring for the No side is that the number of Labour voters backing independence has fallen, which suggests that the bleeding on that front has been staunched. We’ll have to see what the polling effect, if any, is of the visit from the three UK party leaders is.

Isabel Hardman

The result of the Scottish referendum will be seismic whether yes or no

From our UK edition

It is very difficult to see how David Cameron would survive a 'Yes' vote in the Scottish referendum. There are certainly Conservatives who are making detailed plans to oust the Prime Minister if Scotland does vote to leave. But it is also worth noting that a 'No' vote would not ensure an easy ride for the Conservative leader with his party. A number of Tory backbenchers are unsettled by the speed at which the parties have moved to promise devo-more. They say they can't see the point at which the government moved from resisting devo-max to all three Westminster parties promising a significant transfer of powers. And they will cause trouble on the English question.

Isabel Hardman

Cameron and Miliband have panicked well today

From our UK edition

While Westminster sent its own plea to Scottish voters, David Cameron and Ed Miliband were both making fine, impassioned speeches that both tried to scotch the SNP line that a 'Yes' vote was the only way to achieve a fairer Scotland. David Cameron had to address to specific - and quite beguiling - argument that this is Scotland's chance to get rid of the Tories, that from independence onwards, it will never be governed by parties poorly represented within its borders. He did so by being a little attention-seeking: 'I think the third thing that can come across in the remaining part of this campaign is the scale of the decision that Scottish people will be taking in eight days' time.

Isabel Hardman

PMQs: Harman and Hague drop the questions and give a joint speech to save the Union

From our UK edition

PMQs was an odd affair today, and not just because there was no PM. It was more that William Hague and Harriet Harman, left in charge while their respective leaders try to save the Union, didn't really do a question time at all. Their entire exchange was one speech pleading with the Scots to stay, stitched together. What questions Harman did ask were merely rhetorical 'doesn't-he-agree' sorts, rather than an attempt to extract information from the Leader of the House. It was a very positive joint speech about the benefits of the United Kingdom and the success of the Union. But we learned nothing - which was the point, really, of a pointless session.