Uk politics

David Cameron is going to have to give the SNP what it wants

All Westminster might be agog with the latest shenanigans vis-a-vis the got-to-happen-at-some-point EU referendum but most sentient folk in this blessed land are magnificently uninterested in the matter. Not even this morning's Telegraph splash - 'Attorney General may back Brexit'  - can stir them from their slumber. At best the majors will have asked, over their E&B this morning, 'Who is the Attorney General these days?' North of the border, matters are just as quiet even though another great question remains unsettled. As yet, you see, there is no agreement on the terms of a 'fiscal framework' which will underpin the relationship between the finances of the devolved parliament in Edinburgh and the mother-parliament in Westminster.

Cameron’s concession on Cabinet meeting will calm eurosceptic tensions

David Cameron has conceded that he cannot force his Cabinet ministers to wait until the Tuesday after the European Council summit to discuss his deal with EU leaders. Sources in Downing Street have indicated that, if there is time, he could hold his Cabinet meeting in which he sets his frontbench free to take whichever stance they want in the referendum on Friday afternoon. Delaying the Cabinet meeting until its usual time of Tuesday morning would have been a great help to the Prime Minister, as he could have spent the whole weekend praising his own deal and making the case for Britain to remain in the European Union. But Cameron cannot simply think about the referendum itself.

Peter Tatchell has discovered just how cowardly the NUS can be

Taking petulance to dizzy new heights, the LGBT officer of the National Union of Students has refused to share a platform with Peter Tatchell because she doesn't like some of his views. Yes, the self-styled spokesperson for gay students is snubbing a man who has spent 40-odd years agitating for gay rights. Tatchell has been denounced, defamed and duffed-up in his struggle to give gay people a voice, and how do radical young gay people choose to use that voice? To bitch about him. To insult the man who helped secure their liberation. It's ungratefulness of oceangoing proportions. Fran Cowling, the NUS bureaucrat, pulled out of a panel debate with Tatchell on the basis that he is transphobic and racist. He isn't, of course.

Which way will Gove go?

If all goes according to David Cameron’s plan, he’ll have his EU deal by this time next week. But Downing Street still can’t be sure of which Tory heavyweights will be with Cameron come the referendum campaign, and which won’t. Even more than Boris Johnson, Michael Gove is causing Downing Street angst. As I report in The Sun today, Gove is ‘definitely wobbling’ according to one Downing Street source. Downing Street think the chances of him backing Out have increased significantly in the last 10 days or so. Gove himself has been telling people that he won’t make a decision until the deal is done. But those around him are now preparing for Gove coming Out.

The next Tory leader will probably come from the Leave camp

Here is a thought for all those Tory MPs calculating their personal advantage in the forthcoming EU referendum: unless the vote is an absolutely overwhelming Remain, the next leader of the Conservative party — whose day is no longer so far off — will come from the Leave camp. This will happen, obviously, if Leave wins, but also if Leave loses but does well, because most party supporters will only back someone who feels their pain and can reconcile them afterwards. Another thought: why would Nigel Farage want Britain to vote Leave? Then he would be redundant. Study him in the light of this thought and you will see that it explains his behaviour in the campaign. This is an extract from Charles Moore's Notes. The full article can be found here.

Tories warn Cameron against taking revenge on eurosceptic ministers

Eurosceptics may have only a few days before their ministerial colleagues can join them in campaigning for Britain to leave the European Union. But they’re currently very unhappy at the sort of briefing they’ve been hearing about what might happen to those ministers after the referendum. The official line is that the Prime Minister will not sack anyone because of the position they take on Europe. But noises off suggest that this isn’t quite true: James reported in his Sun column last week that the Prime Minister has taken to telling colleagues ‘I’ve said I would have Outers in my Cabinet after the referendum. But I haven’t said they’ll be the same ones.

Tories playing ‘petty, grubby’ politics with Trident, Lord West warns

The Tories risk playing ‘petty, grubby’ politics by planning to delay the Commons vote on Trident renewal, former head of the Navy Lord West has warned Coffee House. A group of former senior military figures, ex-ministers and MPs are writing to David Cameron and George Osborne next week to urge them to push ahead with the votes on the ’main gate’ decision on the new submarines as soon as possible, after reports that the Conservatives were planning to delay until closer to Labour’s autumn conference. David Cameron this week said ‘we should have the vote when we need to have the vote and that is exactly what we will do’, which suggested he wasn’t trying to create a sense of urgency about the matter.

Jeremy Hunt confirms he will impose junior doctor contract

As expected, Jeremy Hunt has just announced in the Commons that he will impose the junior doctor contract after he was advised that there was no longer any chance of an agreement with the British Medical Association on the issue. And as expected, the BMA has said that it does not accept the contract and is considering ‘all options open’ to it in response. In response to the Health Secretary, Heidi Alexander warned that the new contract ‘could amount to the biggest gamble with patient safety’ that the Commons has seen because of the exodus of junior doctors from the NHS that this would cause.

How Jeremy Corbyn is preparing for PMQs

What will Jeremy Corbyn lead on today at Prime Minister’s Questions? The Labour leader could ask David Cameron about the junior doctors’ strike, about Europe, or about party funding, given Labour is currently fighting the Trade Union Bill, and given it was the Tory Black and White Ball this week. But almost as interesting as what Corbyn will raise is how he’ll do it. The Labour leader has clearly grown in confidence since he started doing these sessions, and even though he’s no William Hague when it comes to jokes or rhetoric, he is asking good, detailed questions, and is slowly getting better at following up. This means that Cameron is coming to the Chamber looking as though he has spent more time preparing than he did in the autumn.

Row in Ukip over EU referendum campaign ‘stitch up’

Ukip’s announcement this afternoon that it will be backing Grassroots Out in its bid for designation as the official ‘Leave’ campaign in the EU referendum has caused consternation in its ranks. The party put out a press release saying that the National Executive Committee, MEPs and its Local Councillors Association are backing GO, which was set up by Peter Bone and is supported by Leave.EU. But I understand that there was no formal NEC meeting about this, and that the last meeting that discussed the designation was a few months ago. When I asked the party how the NEC was consulted, I was told that there was a telephone discussion about the matter this morning. Some were contacted by text message.

Scottish Tories aim for serious Holyrood campaign

How can Ruth Davidson become the Leader of the Opposition in Holyrood? The leader of the Scottish Conservatives made her pitch to do just that this week, and also set out her own vision for tackling inequality in a speech last night. She has become a popular figure in political circles, respected by right and left not just because of her enthusiasm for the job, but her love of amusing photo shoots, including the famous tank picture, and her ability to look as though she is actually enjoying herself on programmes like Have I Got News For You. But for this campaign, I understand that Davidson won’t be travelling about in any tanks or other amusing vehicles.

Cameron’s EU campaign is negative, stupid, and likely to win

Here we go again. According to today's Daily Express, leaving the European Union is the only way to 'save the NHS'. According to the Prime Minister, remaining a member of the european club is the only way to guarantee the United Kingdom's security. I suppose it is too much to hope that everyone, on both sides of this increasingly-wearisome argument, will pipe down and cease being so damn stupid? Of course it is. We will be stuck with more - much more - of this until such time as the bleedin' poll is called and held. This may be the best reason for having the referendum as soon as possible.

How can Labour resolve its Trident row?

The Shadow Cabinet has its session with Emily Thornberry on Trident today. At least there are fewer people so she cannot be shouted down, as she was at points in last night’s parliamentary Labour party meeting. But there are a number of MPs at the table who only joined Jeremy Corbyn’s frontbench on the understanding that they would be able to vote in favour of Trident renewal when the time came.

First, immigrants. Now, terrorism. Will Cameron’s EU scaremongering ever stop?

A few weeks ago, James Forsyth revealed David Cameron’s strategy for fighting the EU referendum: to campaign on the theme on security, rather than an economic argument. This is already backfiring badly. Britain’s security does not depend upon the EU, and the Prime Minister's attempts to suggest otherwise are inflicting grave damage to his chances of winning the referendum. Yesterday, he threatened Britain with an influx of migrants if we vote to leave. His logic was that the deal agreed with France about policing Sangette was somehow dependent on EU membership. But, being a bilateral deal, it had nothing to do with the EU - as today’s Daily Telegraph reveals.

Emily Thornberry confronted by Labour MPs over Trident

Emily Thornberry, the new Shadow Defence Secretary, held a meeting with her fellow Labour MPs this evening. It either went 'swimmingly' or was 'worse than I thought', depending on which MPs you listen to. Based on the accounts of the meeting from MPs who've spoken to Coffee House this evening, it was less the Ian Thorpe sort of swimming, and more Eric the Eel. Naturally, those opposed to a change in Labour policy are not happy, and were unlikely to come out of tonight's meeting of the parliamentary Labour Party feeling very happy unless Thornberry had announced that Jeremy Corbyn has learned to stop worrying and love the nuclear deterrent.

Can the fighting Leave factions work together?

Despite all the fighting over which faction is working with who that’s taken place over the past few days, MP members of the Vote Leave campaign are actually rather upbeat. In private conversations that I’ve had over the past few days, a number of MPs who had been worried about the campaign have told me that they think it has turned a corner with the restructure that was announced earlier last week. The Vote Leave bunch do not want to merge with Leave.EU for a number of reasons, but one is simply that it would be difficult with such a small amount of time left before the referendum. But there’s nothing to stop the groups working together, and co-ordinating their activities, rather than the current situation of a lot of friendly fire between Leave.EU and Vote Leave.

Could the Conservatives take Labour’s place as Scotland’s second party?

Last month I wrote that everyone loves Ruth Davidson but no-one will vote for her. Now a new YouGov poll reports that the Tories are ahead, if only just, of Labour in the race to lose the forthcoming Holyrood election least badly. Twenty percent of Scots say they intend to vote for Davidson's Scottish Conservatives in May and only 19 percent are prepared to back Kezia Dugdale's Labour party. [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/WvPSD/index.html"] A lesser man than I might think this awkward. Granted, even when doubting the veracity of the much-anticipated, rarely-actually-seen Scottish Tory revival I allowed myself some room for wriggling.

Tory whips jittery about local government finance rebellion

Communities Secretary Greg Clark is giving a statement this afternoon in the Commons on local government finance. This sounds like something rather lacking in drama, but I understand it is part of an attempt to ward off a rebellion threatened by MPs on Wednesday. MPs will vote on a local government finance settlement motion on Wednesday, and I hear that the Tory whips are so jittery about whether they might lose that vote that they are refusing to give MPs permission to leave Westminster that afternoon. Conservative MPs have been lobbying ministers to grant fairer funding for rural councils, and are threatening to vote against the government if it does not do this. It might be that Clark tries to address some of the MPs’ concerns in his statement this afternoon.