Uk politics

Wednesday

Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: A Brexit transition deal is a necessary evil

From our UK edition

Theresa May’s admission that the European Court of Justice could continue to play a role during any Brexit transition deal has not gone down well with some Leave supporters. Jacob Rees-Mogg suggested that the Prime Minister had gone too far in trying to appease Brussels. But the Sun doesn’t see the PM’s comments as anything to be worried about. ‘Most sensible Leavers accept the need for a limited Brexit transition’, the paper says, even if this means a role for the ECJ. Such a transition will ensure that the impact on the economy will be minimised, the Sun says. It will also ‘buy businesses time to adjust’. But May must remember her pledge that the UK will be out of the EU by March 2019.

Tuesday

Munira Mirza

Theresa May’s phoney race war is dangerous and divisive | 10 October 2017

From our UK edition

Theresa May’s long-awaited audit into racial disparities in public services has finally launched. We were prepared for the worst. Unnamed Whitehall insiders had said that they had been ‘shocked’ by the picture it reveals of racial discrimination in the UK. The scene was set for another bout of political self-flagellation regarding the subject of race in Britain, in which half-truths are peddled by lobbyists and swallowed wholesale by officialdom. Several studies have already shown that some ethnic groups experience different outcomes in policing, health, employment and education. There are many causes behind these disparities but the evidence used by government to publicise the audit has been carefully selected and presented to suit a predetermined agenda.

Steerpike

Watch: Damian Green says Britain would be better if Remain had won

From our UK edition

Oh dear. After Theresa May refused to say three times in an interview with Iain Dale on LBC whether she would back Leave in a second EU referendum, the Prime Minister has provoked the ire of some in the Brexit camp. But Brexiteers can take heart that May's comments are positively eurosceptic compared with those of her First Secretary of State. Damian Green has been touring the television studios this evening to talk about the government's race disparity audit. Also on the agenda is Brexit. First, the former Remain campaigner told Channel 4 News that he would vote Remain if another EU referendum was held. Now, he has just appeared on Newsnight where he appeared to double down on his comments.

Isabel Hardman

Brexit could ensure social care gets the reform it badly needs

From our UK edition

Theresa May had planned to move the political focus this autumn from Brexit to domestic priorities. That was always a tall order when the next round of negotiations and this month’s EU council are looming, but it’s particularly difficult given the Prime Minister managed to lose, not gain, authority with her conference speech. It's also made harder given that her statement in the Commons yesterday seems to have enraged Brexiteer MPs, who were willing her on before the conference speech fiasco. One senior eurosceptic MP told Coffee House after the admission that the European Court of Justice would still have a role during the Brexit transition that he and colleagues were ‘extremely surprised as this was quite the opposite of what we had been led to believe’.

Katy Balls

Theresa May refuses to say she’d now vote Leave

From our UK edition

Theresa May struck a defiant tone this afternoon in her first broadcast interview since her disastrous conference speech. Speaking to Iain Dale on LBC, the Prime Minister re-iterated her old claim that she still wishes to lead the party into the next election – even if the number of MPs in her party who support her wish is now in single figures: ID: Is it still your intention to lead the Conservative party into the next election? TM: Iain I've been asked this question many times and the answer has not changed, I can tell you that. ID: I just wondered after the events of last week whether it might have changed.

Tom Goodenough

Brussels is warming to the British government’s approach to Brexit

From our UK edition

Ministers had been holding out some faint hope (at least publicly) that Brexit trade talks could start this month. It was an unlikely prospect. Jean-Claude Juncker warned only a few weeks ago that it would take a ‘miracle’ for that to happen. Now, it’s official that a Brexit miracle hasn’t take place: Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, has said Brussels’ new timetable is based on the ‘hope for sufficient progress’ to be made by the end of this year, rather than in October. This makes it clear the EU is determined to milk its trump card - stalling on talking trade - for all its worth: hardly much of a surprise. But Tusk’s message today also hints at a softening of tone in Brussels.

Theresa May’s race audit relies on misleading statistics

From our UK edition

We know from her unfortunate conference speech that it irks Mrs May to hear Labour claiming a monopoly on compassion, and this week’s racial disparity audit is her latest attempt to prove that she is equally concerned about injustice. The problem is that the disparity audit is based on a colossal intellectual blunder. Disparate outcomes may be the result of discrimination, but there are numerous other valid explanations. When comparing large groups using statistics there are many confounding factors at work. For example, the average age of ethnic minorities is younger than for the white population. This has given them less time to get promotion and increase their earnings. To assume that lower average earnings result from discrimination is a schoolboy error.

Steerpike

Watch: Boris’s bungled bid to get into No.10

From our UK edition

Boris Johnson’s leadership ambitions are no secret. But the Foreign Secretary’s latest attempt to get into Downing Street hit a more obvious snag this morning. Ahead of today’s Cabinet meeting, Boris and Liam Fox were filmed walking through Downing Street. When Boris tried to get into No.10, however, he found himself locked out.

Steerpike

Mhairi Black turns on herself

From our UK edition

Who would want an MP who had never had a career outside of politics to represent them? That's the question Mhairi Black has been asking today at SNP conference. Black used her speech at the event to say the SNP must reject 'career politicians'. Hang on a minute. Given that the 23-year-old SNP politician went straight from a politics degree to a job in Westminster, isn't she the definition of a 'career politician'? Mr S hopes she isn't trying to put herself out of a job...

Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: Why we must prepare for a Brexit ‘no deal’

From our UK edition

Theresa May’s ‘I’m in charge’ message she delivered to Parliament wasn’t only aimed at MPs - it was also directed at Brussels, says the Daily Telegraph. After all, there’s little doubt that Michel Barnier will have looked at Theresa May’s disastrous Tory party conference performance and have concluded ‘she is hanging onto power by her fingertips’. Surely he will have thought, says the paper, Britain’s PM is ‘not in a position to play tough’. If so, Brussels' politicians would be wise to ‘think long and hard about what life might be like if the negotiations go wrong’.

Stephen Daisley

If the Tories are smart, they will stick with Theresa May

From our UK edition

It’s over 150 years since John Stuart Mill called the Conservatives the stupid party and in every one of those years they have worked hard to live up to that assessment.  Grant Shapps’ abortive leadership coup is the latest example of Tory idiocy. After Theresa May did herself a mischief in Manchester, Shapps scarpered over to his colleagues and piped up that the emperor had no clothes. To which they replied: ‘Where have you been, Grant?’ Unfazed, Shapps then offered himself up as a replacement, out of selfless devotion to party and country. The party, once it had established who he was again, said 'nah, you're all right, mate'.

Monday

James Forsyth

Theresa May concedes that the European Court of Justice will have a role during the Brexit transition

From our UK edition

Most of Theresa May’s statement today was simply a reiteration of what she had said in Florence. But we did get clarity on one crucial point. In answer to a question from Jacob Rees-Mogg, Theresa May explicitly accepted that the European Court of Justice would have a role during the transition. She said that she hoped it would be replaced at some point by a new dispute resolution mechanism. But at the beginning of the transition, the ECJ will be the arbiter. Now, there will be Brexiteers who don’t like this; Jacob Rees-Mogg’s question was seeking an assurance that this would not be the case. But if the transition is to see the UK stay inside the single market in everything but name, it is hard to see how this can be avoided.

Isabel Hardman

Theresa May needs to promote new ideas, not just new names

From our UK edition

Theresa May is threatening a reshuffle - and would be wise to threaten it for as long as possible as the only thing more problematic than naughty ministers you need to move is angry ex-ministers who didn’t want to be moved. Katy looks at who the Prime Minister could move in this post here, and points to a desire for new talent in the government. Promoting the next generation would achieve two things. Firstly it would energise a rather grey government (impressive, given the grey government is opposed by a party led by Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell).

Katy Balls

Why isn’t Theresa May’s conference catastrophe showing in the polls?

From our UK edition

After a lacklustre conference and a disastrous speech, Theresa May's position within her party has never looked more fragile. But she can take heart that her relationship with the public is a different story entirely. In a sign that conference is only a headline event for politicos, it appears May's shaky performance in Manchester has meant diddly squat. An ICM poll claims the Tories have actually gained a point from the whole debacle. Even if you combine the three different polls done since the conference – they show a swing between the main parties of... zero. https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/917406487936491525 The findings will come as a blow to Parliamentary plotters such as Grant Shapps, who had hoped to use recent events to push May out.

Isabel Hardman

How powerful can the Tory Universal Credit rebellion really be?

From our UK edition

One of the brewing Tory rows of the autumn looks to be over Universal Credit, with Heidi Allen now claiming she has 25 Conservatives prepared to rebel on the matter. They are worried about a number of aspects of the fiendishly complicated reform which is supposed to make the benefit system less, er, fiendishly complicated. Chief among their worries is the six weeks that claimants have to wait for their benefits, which is a long period in itself, but almost a quarter of claimants have had to wait even longer than that to receive their money, leaving many of them unable to buy food.

James Forsyth

Theresa May should appoint a Secretary of State for No Deal

From our UK edition

The Brexit talks collapsing would be a bad thing. It shouldn’t be the aim of the UK government, but it should be something that the government is prepared for. After all, there is a non-negligible chance of this happening. Compounding this is that the United Kingdom can’t credibly threaten to walk away from the table unless it is actually ready to do so. Without the ability to walk away, Theresa May will be left having to accept whatever the EU offers. It’s evident that Britain is not currently prepared for a no deal scenario. There needs to be a massive push if the UK is to get itself anywhere near ready.

Nick Cohen

Does the rule of law cover the poor?

From our UK edition

Belatedly, the disastrous rollout of Universal Credit has become a media 'talking point'.  I could do with less praise for Iain Duncan Smith in the debate. He is the man the Tories decided was unfit to lead them, but still fit to manage and, as we are seeing, wreck the lives of the poorest people in the country. He deserves no special indulgence. 'His intentions were good,' everyone feels obliged to say. As if motives mattered more than deeds, and what politicians hoped for matters more than what they achieved. Duncan Smith’s achievement was to preside over disastrous and expensive experiments with IT systems that did not work, and then establish pilot projects for the new catch-all benefit, which was meant to end the complexity of the welfare state.

Ross Clark

The Bombardier dispute could actually bring down May’s government

From our UK edition

When governments fall it often comes from an unexpected quarter. Thirty eight years ago, James Callaghan’s government fell not as a direct result of the Winter of Discontent but from the fallout over a failed referendum on Scottish devolution. Over the past week we have heard plenty of speculation about Theresa May losing her job thanks to her cough at Manchester or through Brexit-induced civil war in her cabinet. But could we be missing something more obscure but at the same time more ominous? The more I think about it, the gravest danger to the government comes not from its handling of Brexit, universal credit, inflation or any of the other stories which have dominated the news agenda in the past month.

Steerpike

Culture Secretary investigated for not having a TV licence

From our UK edition

Oh dear. As Culture Secretary, Karen Bradley is expected to foster and maintain good relations with both the media and broadcast industries.  So, Mr S was alarmed to hear that Bradley recently found herself on the wrong side of the TV licensing company. Writing on the infamous Tory MP WhatsApp group, Bradley complained to her fellow MPs she was being hounded by TV Licensing for not having a TV license for her constituency office. The MP for Staffordshire Moorlands asked if she was the only one having this bother – only to be greeted by silence.  A DCMS spokesman says Bradley has since explained to TV Licensing that she doesn't have a television in the office.

Sunday

Katy Balls

Cabinet reshuffle: who can Theresa May sack?

From our UK edition

Good news in Downing Street: Theresa May has survived the weekend. After the Shapps plot failed to take off, the new consensus is that the beleaguered Prime Minister should re-assert her authority on an increasingly unruly Tory party by reshuffling her Cabinet. Had the speech gone better, there was talk that she could have done this last week. The Sunday Times reports that a shuffle is now likely to occur after the European Council meeting in two weeks' time. If May does oblige, there are calls from within the party for her to use a reshuffle to promote younger talent – and to sack the Foreign Secretary. The latter still looks unlikely.