Uk politics

Saturday

James Forsyth

The month that will determine Theresa May’s future

Three events in the next four weeks will determine Theresa May’s future as Prime Minister, I say in The Sun today. If May goes 0 for 3 on the Budget, the Damian Green inquiry and the EU Council then she’ll truly be on the skids. But if the Budget doesn’t unravel, Damian Green is cleared and she gets ‘sufficient progress’ to move on to trade and transition in December then she’ll be in the strongest position she’s been in since the election. The Budget on Wednesday is the first of these tests. As I write in the magazine this week, so many Tory political tensions abound right now that it’ll

Pádraig Belton

Northern Ireland’s political deadlock is starting to bite

Brexit is proving such a distraction that few seem to have noticed the creeping start to direct rule in Northern Ireland. While much of the coverage in the newspapers focused on the EU withdrawal bill, the Northern Ireland Budget Act – which shifts Stormont’s most important power, the task of setting Northern Ireland’s budget, to London – tiptoed its way through parliament this week.  The thing about direct rule is that once you have started, it’s hard to stop. It will also do little to heal the country’s fractured politics: the DUP will push for more; they will also seek the appointment of direct rule ministers as quickly as possible. This makes

Charles Moore

Is tax avoidance always wrong?

In the argument about tax avoidance, people feel very strongly, yet it is hard to define wrong behaviour. We all know that tax evasion, being illegal, is wrong. But what tax behaviour is legal, yet wrong? Take a deliberately trivial example. Safety riding hats carry no VAT if they are sold as children’s hats. No law says that only children may buy or wear them, and no law limits their size. So it is commonplace for adults, without any dishonesty, to buy children’s riding hats for themselves to avoid the VAT. I struggle to see this as immoral. Is it just a matter of scale, then? Is it all right

Rachel Johnson

Why I feel sorry for Damian Green

I have to admit, I feel a bit sorry for Damian Green about the porn found on his work computer. What if someone else had downloaded it? What if it had been planted as kompromat via some Russian malware? Especially as what’s on telly can be far more alarming. I was sofa-side on Monday night, crying through Gabriel Gatehouse’s Newsnight package on the massacre of Rohingya Muslims, which showed dead babies and interviewed their mothers and widowed fathers. I was so distressed that my husband changed to Channel 4 for relief. On our wide HD flatscreen were close-ups of no fewer than six hairless adult female pudenda. It was his turn to scream, and

Friday

Steerpike

Labour’s Christmas attack

Christmas is meant to be the season of goodwill. Alas, no-one at Labour HQ appears to have got the memo. The Labour party have released their Christmas cards – with a distinct Conservative vibe this year. Corbyn’s party has used the festive opportunity to make fun of Theresa May’s conference speech where the letters fell from the board behind her – meaning the slogan of ‘building a country that works for everyone’ soon became confused. Yours for a mere £8…

Katy Balls

Theresa May’s weakness proves costly in the Brexit negotiations

So much for that Friday feeling – Theresa May’s day out at the European social summit has proved a slog. First, an increasingly angry Irish Taoiseach threatened to block the progress of Brexit talks over the Irish border – telling hacks that he couldn’t ‘in any honesty’ say that an agreement is close. Then, Donald Tusk issued a stern warning that ‘much more progress’ will have to be made in order for him to even consider letting the talks progress to trade in December. The European Council president said that while ‘good progress’ on citizens’ rights is being made, he needs to see ‘much more progress’ on Ireland and on the financial settlement.

Steerpike

Nigel Farage’s communication problem

Nigel Farage found himself in the news over the weekend after his former aide claimed she was told to keep her ‘relationship’ with Farage secret at all costs – to help save Brexit. In an interview with the Mail on Sunday, Annabelle Fuller alleged that she and Farage had a relationship dating from 2004 until October last year – describing it as grossly inappropriate and damaging to her mental wellbeing. In response to the claims, the former Ukip leader neither confirmed nor denied the story – simply saying that he had ‘always tried to help her, recognising that she had ability, and prevented her from being fired on several occasions.’ So, given the

Nick Cohen

Putin’s cranks and creeps are winning the day

Jeremy Corbyn and his supporters announce themselves to be the leftist of the left: a band of brothers, who have saved the Labour Party from neo-liberalism and neo-conservatism. Yet they happily align with the most right-wing imperialist power in the neighbourhood. All around Corbyn, questions about Russian influence in the US election and the Brexit referendum are exploding. Instead of using the opposition front bench to investigate and denounce, Corbyn and McDonnell show no interest in fighting the right at home or abroad. They prefer instead to join a queue that includes Donald Trump, Nigel Farage and Marine Le Pen and wait in line to plant damp kisses on Vladimir

Steerpike

Emily Thornberry fails the socialism test

Oh dear. After a fortnight of government shambles, Jeremy Corbyn can enjoy the weekend safe in the knowledge that his party is… still neck and neck with the Tories. On last night’s Question Time, Emily Thornberry offered an insight into why her party – and it’s plan for 21st century socialism – may be failing to catch fire. Asked by a member of the audience what country was the best advert for Corbyn’s brand of socialism, the shadow foreign secretary struggled to come up with an answer: QT audience member: I’d like to hear of an example where Corbyn and McDonnell’s economic ideas have worked. DD: Okay, you can name

Alex Massie

The Tory Brexit contradiction

It has not been a great few weeks for David Davis, the government’s designated Brexit Bulldog. In the first place, his ambition to succeed Theresa May as leader of the Conservative party and prime minister looks and feels increasingly at-odds with the temper of the times. I suppose parading buxom lasses in figure-hugging t-shirts emblazoned with the slogan ‘It’s DD for me’ was meant as just a bit of nudging, winking, fun. The kind of thing you could get away with in simpler times. But it was naff a decade ago and seems something a little worse than that now. Perhaps it’s unfair to draw too many conclusions from a

Steerpike

David Lidington is saved by the bell

The Westminster sleaze scandal has resulted in many awkward conversations having to be had across Parliament. However, at yesterday’s Press Gallery lunch, David Lidington was on hand to let it be known that this in itself is nothing new. Back when the Tories were in Opposition, the Conservative MP was tasked with updating Ann Widdecombe, then shadow home secretary, on which sexual offences that would be covered by a new piece of legislation: ‘I went through cottaging, cruising, incest, bestiality,’ he told a room full of lobby hacks. Widdecombe’s reaction? ‘Her eyebrows were getting higher as her jaw dropped lower’. Happily the pair were saved by the bell when Ann’s phone

Tom Goodenough

What should Philip Hammond announce in his Budget?

Next week’s Budget could be the government – and Philip Hammond’s – last chance to snatch the political momentum away from Labour. So what should he announce? Today’s newspaper editorials have some advice for the Chancellor: Not too long ago, John McDonnell’s ‘alternative budget’ would have been announced ‘in complete obscurity’, says the Daily Telegraph. Not so now, and the Tories clearly need ‘big ideas’ to see off a resurgent Labour party. This should not mean they resort to borrowing the party’s ‘Left-wing solutions’ – or, indeed, trying to outspend Labour, however. But they cannot rest on their laurels. On housing, for instance, Hammond must ‘do far more’. Scrapping stamp

Thursday

Isabel Hardman

Will the Tories really grasp the nettle on two of the biggest domestic crises?

Two of the biggest unsolved domestic crises in this country are surely social care and housing. Both have creaked from ‘in trouble’ to ‘already in crisis’ without much in the way of serious policy or money from successive governments. Today, ministers turned their attention to both matters, making rather different announcements on how they might deal with them. First up, social care. Since the Tories made a mess of their social care policy in the snap election of 2017, the sector itself has plunged into an even deeper mess, with providers and local authorities warning that not only are they struggling to do what they’re supposed to do with so

Nick Hilton

The Spectator Podcast: Corbyn 2.0

On this week’s episode we look at the social media revolution which could sweep the Tories away. We also discuss next week’s budget and agonise about the state of the nation with Jeffrey Archer. Whether it’s Jeremy Corbyn, Donald Trump or the Brexiteers, successful politicians seem to have one thing in common: a command of social media. But what about Theresa May and her party? In the magazine this week, Robert Peston is concerned that the Prime Minister might be left behind if she fails to grasp the importance of the internet. He joins the podcast along with Jamie Bartlett, Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media

Isabel Hardman

Will Salmond ask questions of Putin’s interest in Scottish independence?

Should the British government be more suspicious of Russia? Theresa May obviously thinks so, telling Vladimir Putin in a speech this week that ‘we know what you are doing and you will not succeed’. Jeremy Corbyn is less keen, with his spokesman telling journalists that ‘I think we need to see more evidence of what’s being talked about… [but] Jeremy has made clear on a number of occasions that we need to see an attempt through dialogue to ratchet down tensions with Russia.’  Meanwhile, Alex Salmond’s decision to host a chat show on Kremlin-backed channel Russia Today last week ratcheted up tensions with his own party, with Nicola Sturgeon distancing

James Forsyth

Michael Gove’s cabinet critics should go and do some reading

The Times‘ Matt Chorley has succeeded in getting everyone talking with his story about Michael Gove supposedly using cabinet meeting to audition for the role of chancellor. Gove reportedly talked about ‘the obscure Markets in Financial Instruments Directives’ two weeks ago and has cabinet sources complaining that at this week’s meeting he used ‘lots of long, economicky words’.  So, what were those ‘long, economicky words’? Well, according to one cabinet minister present, Gove talked about Schumpeter and creative destruction and raised the question of whether the Bank of England’s monetary policy was creating zombie companies. The argument is fairly simple: if interest rates are so low, a flood of borrowed

Ross Clark

Whatever happened to the Brexodus?

Vegetables are rotting in the fields for want of Eastern European pickers, patients are being left untreated thanks to a haemorrhaging of EU nurses, our universities are in peril as European academics flee from a xenophobic Britain which no longer wants them. That, at least, is the picture that is continually presented to us by the rearguard Remain lobby, which wants us to think that the EU nationals who make our economy go round have had enough and, as the Guardian says of nurses and midwives, are ‘leaving in droves’. There is one problem with this analysis: it is directly contradicted by the facts. Figures released by the Office of

Katy Balls

John McDonnell’s Today interview shows the economy remains Labour’s Achilles heel

John McDonnell has busied himself today on the airwaves setting out Labour’s five key demands for the budget. His call for an end to austerity would mean pausing the roll-out of Universal Credit, ditching the public sector pay cap, more money into infrastructure, health, education, and local government along with a large-scale house-building programme. All very well. Only the shadow chancellor’s Today programme interview took a turn for the worse when McDonnell tried to explain how his party would fund this. He appeared to concede this would mean borrowing – along with a mega-crackdown on tax avoidance and changes to corporation tax. But the most telling point in the interview came when he was

Ed West

It’s nonsense to claim Russia influenced the Brexit vote

Q: How many Remainers does it take to fix a light bulb? A: Why should we fix it? It’s Russia’s fault it’s broken An old joke; I think the original concerned Arabs and Israel, but then there are numerous parts of the world where all manner of events are attributed to historic enemies. I remember a few years ago, after reading an article about how Poles tended to think the Russians were behind everything bad, a journalist explaining that this is the historic result of being ruled by tyrannical regimes, low social capital and little trust in government. That’s eastern Europe for you; luckily we north-west Europeans, with our long history

Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: In defence of the Brexit ‘mutineers’

The EU withdrawal bill survived its first test at its commons committee stage this week – but there is still a long way to go. And it seems some on the Tory back benches are determined not to make it plain sailing for the government. Theresa May’s ‘mandate for a hard Brexit is weak’, says the FT, which argues that parliament is well within its rights to scrutinise the EU withdrawal bill closely. ‘If ever there was a case for parliament exercising its sovereign powers, this is it,’ says the paper. So why the backlash against those in the Tory ranks who are not happy with certain parts of the