Tories

It's law and order week in No. 10. After a series of announcements over the weekend, on stop and search and a promise of more prison places, Boris Johnson has today announced a review of sentencing guidelines for rapists and murderers. More announcements and appearances are expected as the week goes on to further hammer home the message that this is a Government that's tough on crime. With 80 days to go until the UK is to leave the EU, No. 10 is focussed on three main areas: Brexit, health and law and order. It follows that these three topics are also what the Tories are expected to campaign on in an early election. Under Theresa May, the Conservatives' reputation as the party of law and order has suffered.

As the by-election result came through from Wales last week, one Tory Leaver tweeted this: “Brecon and Radnor is a timely warning to Brexiteers. Vote for the @brexitparty_uk and you will hand another seat to Remain. How could you be so stupid?”.  So stupid? The nerve, when after all, it was the the Brexit party that resuscitated the referendum result after a near death experience created by his party. I was furious at the arrogance. But he isn't alone; this view has now become the narrative popularised by some Tory grandees and voters, even though many of the latter loaned the Brexit party their votes in the Euro elections.  Yet without the Brexit party, it is likely that Theresa May would still be prime minister.

Some thoughts on the arrival in office of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, based on his first speech, his first appointments and some conversations with people in different parts of the Conservative party and Whitehall today.  These are not all my own predictions; some belong to others. But they’re under my name, so I’ll be happy to answer for them when – and if – they’re proven wrong: 1. A no-deal exit from the EU is much more likely than financial markets currently imply, and much more likely to become the de facto object of UK government policy Johnson’s speech gave him very, very little room for manoeuvre over Brexit. As his first act, he’s committed to leaving on October 31.

British law enforcement is famous around the world for its brand of neighbourhood policing. But this now exists largely in memory in the place where policing was invented. Our capability to police in this way, that has protected society since the time of Robert Peel, has all but collapsed. The only surprise about the five ex-Metropolitan Police chiefs' blistering attack on the ten years of Conservative policy that achieved this is how long it’s taken them to get their act together. For a period of time between 2009 and 2011, I had a pretty unique perspective on policing in Britain. By day I was the senior Home Office mandarin in south west England, overseeing performance on crime, drugs and counter terrorism policy.

Percy Bysshe Shelley’s Ozymandias is often taught to schoolchildren, who read it as a warning about the fragility of human power. Conservatives should study it now and ensure they take an opportunity to learn from Theresa May’s mistakes on immigration. If there was one issue that helped May become, for a short time, a figure of “cold command” over her party, it was immigration. As home secretary and then Prime Minister, she was the senior figure at the top of the Conservative party who consistently took the hardest line on the issue.

The New York Times’s strange jihad against post-Brexit Britain continues. Some readers may have missed the paper’s insistence that having only just finished eating mutton, the British public are currently stock-piling food and all but preparing to start eating each other (see here, here, and here just for starters).  But yesterday they have returned to the fray with the international edition of the paper carrying a front-page piece declaring ‘Extremists hijacked UK politics’.  The online version of the story is headlined ‘A fanatical sect has hijacked British politics’.

The Conservative party seems to have viewed the demise of the Jeremy Kyle Show as a gap in the market which it needs to fill, with a series of bizarre stories about the behaviour of some of its leading figures over the past few days. Just to top off Mark Field grabbing a female protester at a dinner by the neck and Boris Johnson's relationship troubles, there is also the start of a by-election triggered by a Conservative MP being convicted of expenses fraud. In keeping with its apparently constant need for drama and attention, the party has decided that the best way to deal with Chris Davies being booted out of his seat by his angry constituents, more than 10,000 of whom signed a recall petition following his conviction, is to select, er, Chris Davies to fight the seat.

What the hell has got into Rory Stewart? The man’s everywhere, outstretched phone in hand, like an Instagram influencer on the edge, asking people to come and talk to him about Brexit. He’s at the Lewisham market by the stinky fish! No wait – now he’s on a train to Wigan. Now he’s talking Dari in Barking; now he’s in Kew Gardens searching for a Brexiteer. But wait: he’s on the move again, chatting in a taxi! Then to Borough Market, filling the tiny screen with his distinctive features. He has more energy than the rest of his rivals put together, and is even making arch-careerist Boris Johnson look indifferent about the leadership contest.   This is all very smart.

In the old days, if the Tory party was in trouble, old hands who had seen it all before would attempt to steady the buffs with a traditional rallying-cry: 'pro bono publico – no bloody panico.' Today, that message is needed as never before, but would the MPs take any notice? In the nineteenth century, an Irish Parliamentarian lamented that: 'Ireland's cup of troubles is overflowing – and it is not yet full.' For Ireland, read the Tory party. It seems quite likely that on Thursday, the Tories will come fifth in the Euro elections, behind the Brexit Party, Labour, the Liberals and the Greens, struggling to get into double figures in percentage terms. That would be the worst result for either of the two leading parties in British political history.

There’s a useful rule of thumb in politics. When Conservative politicians pronounce themselves to be a One Nation Tory, you can be pretty sure they’ve got nothing sensible to say. Instead of addressing voters, they’re conversing with each other in a special form of Tory code. It’s an identifier without substance, a form of ritualistic preening often seen in the animal kingdom. Amber Rudd was at it last week. Claiming that the economy was her top priority, Rudd said she would oppose any Conservative leadership candidate who wanted to cancel HS2. The timing was unfortunate, with the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee subsequently producing a report recommending the government think again on HS2.

The worse things are for the Tories, the better for Boris Johnson. If the Tories were ahead in the polls, he’d have little hope of becoming leader. MPs would choose someone more clubbable, less divisive, and more interested in them personally: who didn’t annoy so many of them so much. But Tory MPs are now contemplating an existential crisis. Tory voters are defecting en masse to Nigel Farage’s Brexit party. The Conservative party’s survival may well turn on winning these voters back, and the former foreign secretary — the tribune of Leave, the buccaneering Brexiteer, the darling of the grassroots — is the most obvious person to do that. Suddenly, Boris is back and in contention for the leadership again.

One of the oddities of this parliament has been that, despite everything, the government has remained ahead in the polls up to now. But the political price of failing to pass a deal and leave the EU is now becoming apparent. Labour is ahead, Nigel Farage is back, and the right is split again. In the past month, Tory support among Leave voters has fallen by 20 per cent. In normal circumstances, such numbers would extinguish any hopes of a fourth term for the Tories. But Labour’s own divisions over Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn’s political weaknesses mean that this isn’t necessarily the case. A big argument is taking place within the Tory party about the correct response to the situation.

From an outside view, one could be forgiven for thinking now is a good time for academies in the UK. Figures show more than half of England’s children are now educated in academies – state schools run by independent charitable trusts but funded and overseen by central government – while one such academy Brampton Manor, in east London, recently made headlines thanks to 41 of its students winning offers from Oxbridge. However, not everyone agrees. Under Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour party is dead set against academies – its official policy is to halt the creation of any new academies or free schools should the party takes power.

One of the factors driving wavering Tory MPs towards saying they will vote for Theresa May tonight is the way in which the rebel operation appears to be being conducted. It's not just that the airwaves were dominated this morning by rather strident Brexiteers as opposed to MPs from a range of persuasions. It's also the heavy-handed language that May's opponents are using behind the scenes as they argue with colleagues. A number of MPs tell me they have been galvanised to support May after a 'fairly brutal' exchange in the Conservative MPs WhatsApp group in which Nadine Dorries, who has long called on May to consider her position, managed to insult her colleagues.

The Electoral Commission has released details of the different parties' spending on the snap election and it doesn't make pretty reading for the Conservatives. Not only did they manage to lose their majority in that disastrous election, they also managed to spend the most money of any party in the process. The Tories spent a record £18.5million on their campaign, while Labour spent just over £11million and the Lib Dems around £6.8million. It's already well documented that the Conservatives misallocated their resources and spent money in seats they wanted to win (and didn't) when they should have been focussing on a defensive campaign in seats like Kensington, which they lost by a handful of votes.

To the Natural History Museum, for the Conservative Black and White ball. Theresa May's Cabinet were given a chance to unwind with a glass or three of 'Brexit juice' (English sparkling wine) after a crunch meeting on the Irish border that afternoon. Guests munched on beef and kale (a pitch to metropolitan liberals?). Theresa May's speech at the annual fundraiser was well received – even if it was Rees-Mogg who was paid the most attention once in the room. Up for auction was the irresistible prospect of dinner with Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson in the Churchill war rooms. This prize was bagged by a Russian – perhaps they'll take notes on the tour.

After Georgia ‘Toff’ Toffolo won I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here, the Tories have been divided on how best to utilise their celebrity supporter. A proud Conservative, Toff's offer to share her million Instagram followers with the party was snubbed by CCHQ over concerns she was ‘too posh to win over Labour supporters’. Since then, the Made in Chelsea cast member has complained that MPs spun a trip she made to Parliament for TV work to make it look as though she had come for a meeting. Happily, Conservative MPs will soon have a chance to make amends with the reality star.

Ruth Davidson is clear in her interview with Fraser Nelson and me that she won’t be making her mind up about standing for a Westminster seat until after the Scottish Parliament election in 2021. Why does Davidson want to wait until then before making any decision? Because she thinks she can become First Minister of Scotland. This might seem a bit bizarre, delusional even; the Labour revival in Scotland means that the Tories are sometimes coming third in the polls and it is hard to see what other party would back her for the job. But Davidson is convinced that there is a ‘clear route’ to the Scottish Tories taking power.