Theresa may

Water cannons at the ready: the Tory leadership contest is officially underway. How does Mr S know this? Well, in a clear sign that George Osborne means business, he has changed his Twitter profile picture. Osborne is now in Conservative blue, offering a confident grin as he embarks on his campaign to move into Number 10. The new photo also displays a slimline Osborne in contrast to the old photo, which depicted a more laid back Chancellor. While Mr S will of course keep readers updated as Boris Johnson and Theresa May develop their online presences, Steerpike can't help wonder why Osborne didn't opt for this week's cover image of Octo-Osborne...

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/theosbornesupremacy/media.mp3" title="Isabel Hardman and George Parker discus how George Osborne rules Westminster" startat=38] Listen [/audioplayer]Against the heavy artillery fire of the Labour leadership battle, the struggle of the Conservative leadership contest goes almost undetected outside Westminster. It is no less intense, even though the Conservatives will not elect a new leader for at least three years. After a week of the parliamentary recess, there is no question about who is winning. This week, for the first time, George Osborne overtook Boris Johnson as William Hill’s favourite. Not so long ago, Osborne was a mere limpet on David Cameron’s wetsuit, clinging on thanks to the patronage of his boss.

The spat between Boris Johnson and Theresa May over the acquisition of three second hand ones from the German police has the air of a dormitory water pistol fight that has left an unprepared Johnson standing in dripping pyjamas. It has become a received wisdom that the incident raises questions about Johnson’s fitness for high office. But does it? May’s claim that water cannon are dangerous is somewhat at odds with them being in routine use in Northern Ireland and deployed 364 times in the past four years without problems. The 67 reported issues regarding the ex-German water cannon are mostly trivial and have all been resolved to the satisfaction of the Metropolitan Police. One, for example, involved an instruction panel in German inside one vehicle.

David Cameron will outline the ‘struggle of our generation’ today: tackling Islamist extremism. The Prime Minister is set to deliver a significant speech in Birmingham, where he will say ‘the root cause of the threat we face is the extremist ideology itself,' attacking those who blame the West's foreign policy for the rise of extremism. Cameron will outline the beginnings of a five-year plan to take on the 'discrimination, sectarianism and segregation' ideas of groups such as ISIL — but what action will the government's proposals entail?

In case the Labour leadership fracas has distracted you, there is still a Tory leadership contest going on, albeit with a slightly longer timetable. George Osborne has had a good week or so in terms of his chances of succeeding David Cameron when he stands down, and today his main contender Boris Johnson had a bad day. Boris was sitting behind Theresa May in the House of Commons as the Home Secretary announced that she would not be giving permission for the Metropolitan Police to deploy three second-hand water cannons in London. The Mayor bought these cannons for £218,000. He pulled a range of unhappy faces as May announced that she would not allow police to use the cannons because they had ‘capacity to cause harm’.

With Tim Farron the favourite to be the next leader of the Liberal Democrats and Theresa May still hopeful that she can succeed David Cameron in No.10, the pair may soon get to relive the 1992 election. Nick Forbes, the Labour Leader of Newcastle CC, has revealed an old article from the election which saw Tim Farron, Theresa May and Hilary Armstrong compete for the seat of North West Durham. https://twitter.com/nick_forbes/status/619462693897027584 Although Hilary Armstrong won at the time, the other two may eventually have the last laugh. Meanwhile, Mr S is glad to see that the Home Secretary has always had such a sharp sense of style.

Harriet Harman has 16 years on David Cameron and she used that advantage very effectively today. After Cameron replied to her first question on the EU referendum with a string of mocking quips about Labour’s mass conversion on the subject, Harman scolded him for gloating and told him to ‘show a bit more class’. This dressing down took Cameron aback. For the rest of the session he wasn’t sure whether to tone it down or mock Harman for complaining. With Harman refusing to play along with the usual Punch and Judy show, Cameron turned to the SNP. He took advantage of Angus Robertson’s questions to mock the Nationalists for saying that they wanted full fiscal autonomy and then not trying to actually get it.

David Cameron is by instinct not a radical leader. We have another example of his preference to keep the boat steady in today’s Telegraph, which reports the Prime Minister has decided Britain won’t quit the European Convention on Human Rights, much to the chagrin of Theresa May and Michael Gove. Although the Conservative manifesto promised to make the British Supreme Court ‘the ultimate arbiter of human rights matters in the UK’, it did not explicitly mention leaving the convention. Gove and May believe that leaving the convention — as well as a much-discussed exit from the European Court of Human Rights — is the only way to fulfil this pledge. But the Prime Minister disagrees.

Leon Brittan’s memorial service on Tuesday packed the West London Synagogue, but there were some notable absentees. We in the congregation were informed that the government was represented by Lord Howe (the Earl Howe, not Geoffrey). He is an estimable man, but well below Cabinet level. Since Brittan had been Home Secretary, it would normally be customary for the present holder of the office, Theresa May, to attend. Was she absent because of the accusations against Brittan, among others, about ‘establishment’ cover-ups of child abuse in the 1980s? If so, it was cowardly. Absolutely nothing has been proved. Unless it is, ministers should stand up for those who have served government in the past instead of running before the wind.

Unencumbered by the regressive Liberal Democrats, the new government has already managed to start taking extremism seriously.  The counter-extremism legislation which the Lib Dems managed to stall will be included in the Queen’s Speech next week. But the government already faces an early test of its policies. Muhammad Salah – a ‘star’ of Huda TV – is due to speak next month at ten venues across the UK, from Edinburgh to Crawley at a ‘Welcome Ramadan’ event. You can see the invitation from ‘Human Appeal’ here. Now Salah is a strange and disconcerting figure to ‘Welcome Ramadan'. And the Home Secretary can hardly deem his views to be conducive to the public good.

One of the odd decisions that the Tories made before the election was to pursue their net migration target, in spite of the fact that they cannot meet it. Today’s figures underline that, with net migration at 318,000 last year, which is the highest total for a decade. The Office for National Statistics said this represented a ‘statistically significant’ rise of more than 109,000 from 2013. Knowing that these figures were coming and wouldn’t be a particularly comfortable experience — more comfortable, though, than had they been published during the election campaign — the Conservatives are setting out their own plans to crack down on the things that annoy people about immigration more than numbers.

John Bercow has just been re-elected unopposed as Speaker of the House of Commons. Those who had been hoping to get rid of Bercow decided not to pursue this to a vote this week, and so he is back in the chair. In his speech, he cracked a joke at the expense of Labour, saying that he would like the words on his own tombstone to be 'he was the backbenchers' champion'. He then sat through a welcome speech from David Cameron, wearing a slightly wry smile. That wry smile was Bercow recalling the last hours of the last Parliament, in which the Tories tried to stitch him up by sneaking through a rule change that would elect the speaker by secret ballot.

The Tories are already putting some clear blue water between the coalition and the present majority government. Firstly, the new Business Secretary Sajid Javid has promised new tougher strike laws — ensuring that a minimum turn out of 50 per cent turnout is required for all strikes, while 40 per cent of all members will need to back a strike affecting essential public services. The TUC's Frances O'Grady has already hit back, arguing the new rules will make 'legal strikes close to impossible'. Secondly, Theresa May and David Cameron are promising to tackle our ‘passively tolerant society’.

As the dust settles on the outcome of the 2015 general election, one group of business executives who we can be sure are less than ecstatic at what the future may hold in store for them are the university vice-chancellors. During the last parliament, Theresa May was responsible for a raft of ministerial directives aimed at reducing the number of students coming to the UK from outside the European Economic Area. She introduced a quota system for these international students, and forced (through the withdrawal of visa sponsorship licences) the virtual closure of scores of non-taxpayer-funded educational institutions.

David Cameron has reappointed several of the most senior members of the government. George Osborne stays as Chancellor, Theresa May remains Home Secretary, Philip Hammond Foreign Secretary and Michael Fallon Defence Secretary. Indeed, the only change is Osborne taking over William Hague’s old First Secretary of State title. This is formal recognition that Osborne will, in effect, be the deputy Prime Minister of this Tory majority government. We are told to expect the rest of the reshuffle on Monday. There’ll be particular interest in who Cameron chooses to be his chief whip, a role that takes on particular importance with this small majority.

For the longest serving Home Secretary in 50 years, Theresa May’s record in government is not without its blemishes. On this afternoon’s Daily Politics home affairs debate she made a clear recognition of the government’s failure to meet the Conservative manifesto promise to reduce immigration to the ‘tens of thousands’. May said: ‘We’ve accepted that we have failed to meet that particular target… [But] if you say to me, Andrew, that there’s nothing we have done on immigration, then you’re wrong. What we have done is not met that particular target. ‘Net migration from outside the EU is lower than it was in 2010, but one of the reasons is that we have seen a significant increase in EU migration.

Security is the watchword of this Tory election campaign. But today the Tories put just as much of an emphasis on national security as economic security. The message was, to put it crudely: it is a dangerous world out there with threats at home and abroad, so who do you want on that wall—Cameron or Miliband? This new emphasis began with Theresa May introducing David Cameron. She talked about the threat from Islamist extremism and how the Tories would combat it. Cameron continued this theme in his speech, declaring in some of the punchiest language of the campaign from him that: ‘We also need to assert the British values of democracy, freedom and the rule of law – and assert them proudly.

As Fraser Nelson says on this morning’s Spectator podcast, David Cameron will likely be regretting yesterday’s announcement for the rest of his premiership. He’s not a ripe watermelon; highlighting that he has a best before date won’t encourage anyone to eat him now, before he grows mould. Worse, he’s announced a shortlist of three possible successors: 'the Theresa Mays, and the George Osbornes, and the Boris Johnsons'. We all know the troubles a similar announcement caused Tony Blair, but even if Dave managed to sleep through the Blair-Brown years (from the opposite green benches), dipping into the biography of any pre-modern English monarch should have taught him of the dangers of naming a successor.

A month after the Magna-Carta-mangling Counter-Terrorism and Security Bill crept onto the statue book, leaked documents seen by the Daily Telegraph over the weekend reveal Home Office proposals which are likely to have significant, if apparently unintended, consequences for free speech in this country. I haven’t seen the full strategy papers myself, and nor will you. They have been deemed too ‘sensitive’ ever to face public scrutiny, and only a two-page executive summary is due to be published. At this stage, it is worth considering the few choice quotes the Telegraph have dutifully passed on.