Theresa may

With an ICM poll out today showing the Conservatives have an 18-point lead over Labour (one of the four worst results for Labour since the poll began in 1983), Theresa May clearly has a lot of political capital in the bank - and today she has been making the most of it. As the government’s Article 50 bill arrived in the Lords for its second reading, the Prime Minister, too, made her way to the Second Chamber to observe the start of the debate. Sat on the steps below the royal throne, May's presence acted as a reminder to the unelected house that ministers are taking the Lords' deliberations very seriously. While May has warned peers that she doesn't want to see 'anybody holding up what the British people want', she does not have too much to worry about.

As the government considers plans to raise an extra £1billion next year through a revaluation of business rates, there has been much concern on the backbench that the move would see high street shops priced out of existence. Mark Field -- vice-chairman of the Conservative party -- has called on Philip Hammond to back down from the 'looming nightmare' of higher business rates in his Budget or risk a revolt among Tory voters. But surely the Chancellor can count on his Cabinet colleagues to back him up at this testing time? Perhaps not. Mr S couldn't help but notice that Damian Green -- the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions -- has liked a tweet critical of the government policy on business rates.

Oh dear. As Theresa May avoids questions about the NHS up in Copeland ahead of this month's by-election, brains at No 10 decided a trip to Captain Shaw's Primary School in Bootle would make for a safe photo opp. Alas things didn't go quite to plan when the Prime Minister struggled to raise a smile in the company of two pupils. What ever will Andrea Leadsom say? Captions on a postcard please.

There has been an understandable, and justified, outcry about the Law Commission’s proposed changes to secrecy legislation. The current proposals present a serious threat to investigative journalism and whistle blowers. But Theresa May’s Number 10 is very keen to point out that this review was something commissioned not by them, but by David Cameron’s Number 10. ‘This is a consultation by an independent body instigated by the previous Prime Minister’ is how one May aide describes it—which is a clear attempt to distance the current Prime Minister from this whole business. I am told that it is highly unlikely that the proposals will be implemented in their current form.

The government has no majority in the House of Lords and a majority of peers were pro-Remain. But despite this, the Article 50 Bill will get through the Lords I argue in The Sun this morning. Why, because the reason that we still have an unelected chamber in the 21st century is that the House of Lords has a strong self-preservation instinct: it knows its limits. If the Lords were to try and block something that had been backed in a referendum and had passed the Commons with a majority of 372, then it would be endangering its very existence. Indeed, I understand that the Labour front bench have already made clear through the usual channels that they won’t try and block the bill. There will, of course, be attempts to amend it.

Theresa May’s Brexit timetable is on track after MPs overwhelming backed the Government’s Article 50 bill in the Commons last night. Not everyone is happy with the role that Parliament has played so far in holding ministers’ feet to the fire over Brexit though. In its editorial this morning, the Guardian says MPs failed their first test: ‘Too many MPs genuflected’ to the referendum outcome - a result which the paper describes as one of the worst political decisions in the UK since the second world war. It seems as though the referendum took away Parliament’s power - and not even the ‘heroic efforts’ of Gina Miller in winning her case in the Supreme Court have helped get it back - the paper says. So what next?

Isabel Hardman has been investigating the social care issue in Surrey for the Spectator in recent days. Yesterday, she spoke to the man whose texts Jeremy Corbyn quoted at PMQs today, the leader of Surrey County Council, David Hodge. Isabel and Hodge spoke just after Tory-run Surrey County Council had made the decision not to hold a referendum on a 15 per cent council tax increase to pay for social care. He told Isabel that ‘we have always believed that there was a way forward which wouldn’t involve a council tax referendum and I genuinely believe that the government now understands the scale of the crisis’.