Theresa may

If you want to judge the extent of the crisis that is paralysing the left, look at this morning’s Guardian. On the one hand you have an article from Abi Wilkinson, who tellingly doesn’t even mention the Labour leader’s name. Convincingly to my mind, Wilkinson argues that the May government ought to be in all kinds of trouble. May herself is an evasive and awkward politician. She is presiding over an NHS that has had more austerity than it can stand. The British Red Cross may have been guilty of hyperbole when it said the UK faced a 'humanitarian crisis' across the whole of its health service. But individual patients are finding that, as far as they and their families are concerned, a humanitarian crisis is exactly what they must endure.

You don't earn a nickname like 'Spreadsheet Phil' for being a showman. But is Philip Hammond's powder-dry demeanour and unwavering focus on the numbers actually his strong point? Yes, says the Sun, which suggests the chancellor’s cautious approach is exactly what Britain needs right now. The paper says that whereas Hammond's predecessors would use their Budget announcements to reach for ‘popularity-boosting giveaways’, not so the current incumbent at No.11 who takes a more sensible approach in saying ‘now is not the time for a spending spree’. ‘We couldn’t agree more,’ says the Sun, which warns of ‘greater challenges’ ahead.

Although Nicola Sturgeon has said a second independence referendum is 'highly likely', a recent poll suggests that the Scottish people are inclined to disagree. Earlier this year, a Panelbase survey found that support for a second independence referendum before the UK leaves the EU is at just 27 per cent. What's more, the majority of Scots -- including some who back independence -- are not in favour of a second referendum within the next year or two. This is why both the SNP and the Tories are currently at pains to blame the other side for any future referendum.

As Prime Minister, John Major was intolerant of opposition from within the Conservative party over the EU — memorably calling Maastricht rebels ‘bastards’. It was unwise, and the bad blood it created within his party has been swirling around ever since. Now that the tables have turned and Sir John now finds himself the rebellious outsider on Europe, it is tempting for those on the Conservative party’s Eurosceptic wing, who for so long were denounced as freaks, fruitcakes and swivel--eyed loons, to take the same approach. Their instinct is to denounce Sir John, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke and others as dinosaurs seeking to deny the will of the British people.

The clash between the Leader of the Opposition and the Prime Minister used to be the main event at PMQs. But this is fast ceasing to be the case. The most interesting bit of today’s session came after Corbyn had finished asking May questions. In her exchanges with Angus Robertson, May refused to confirm that all powers in devolved areas, such as agriculture and fishing, would go to Holyrood post Brexit. Now, there is—obviously—a bit of Nationalist grievance hunting going on here and having multiple agricultural regimes within the UK would not be entirely sensible. But it would be a mistake if Brexit did not lead to a more powerful Scottish parliament. We have got used to patsy questions to Prime Ministers from their own side.

The ghosts of Prime Ministers past aren’t making life easy for Theresa May. John Major has now followed in the haunted footsteps of Tony Blair by criticising his successor’s approach to Brexit. Major used a speech yesterday to say people are being offered an ‘unreal’ vision of Brexit by the Government. Unsurprisingly, Major’s intervention has won him few friends in the newspaper editorials this morning. The Sun says it’s good news that Theresa May - and not John Major is in charge. After all, if the former PM was involved in Brexit talks, his ‘defeatist gloom’ would inevitably mean  that things 'would end as badly as he ­predicts’.

Its economy will be destroyed by leaving the single market. Losing access to European sales will destroy swathes of industry, and without free movement, employers will be crucified by skill shortages. Nicola Sturgeon is no doubt already preparing her lines for a vote on Scottish independence once the UK leaves the EU. Right now, that looks as if it could come a lot sooner than anyone imagined. It is reported that as soon as the Prime Minister Theresa May triggers Article 50 and starts the process of leaving the European Union, Scotland’s First Minister will announce plans for a second referendum on independence – a demand that May could find impossible to resist. But hold on.

It is many a Brexiteer’s fantasy: In 2019, shortly after the UK formally leaves the EU, Theresa May welcomes Donald Trump to Downing Street to ink a trade pact. Out with the old, in with the new, and the ‘special relationship’ standing tall. But how likely is that scenario? A trade deal would certainly be politically meaningful for both sides. For Trump, who is facing pressure over his protectionist rhetoric, it would be an opportunity to boost his pro-trade credentials. While Theresa May could use it to show that Britain has trade options beyond the EU. The prospect of a deal with the US could also boost her hand when it comes to bargaining with Brussels over Brexit.

If ever you wanted to understand what Theresa May’s relationship with her top ministers is like, today’s Cabinet meeting provides some insight. The ‘majority’ of the session, which lasted more than an hour, was taken up with a discussion about the importance of the Union. Not a discussion in which any of the problems raised by Brexit for the Union, such as the problems with the land border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, were addressed, but a general discussion on how everyone present supported the “most successful political union of countries that has been seen”.