Theresa may

Tomorrow in Florence, Theresa May needs to make the speech of her life. Britain has a strong hand to play in these EU talks and it’s time the Prime Minister showed it. May must assert once again that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’, shoring up the UK’s bargaining position. She should also insist Britain won’t confirm any ‘divorce bill’ until these Article 50 talks end in March 2019, with the final amount dependent on the goodwill the EU has shown. Above all, taking her cue from Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister needs to present an inspiring vision of the UK outside the EU. The heyday of Florence was as a free-trading, outward-looking, independent city-state, long before it was absorbed into a unified Italy.

After concerns about the Foreign Secretary's job security bumped Vince Cable's keynote leader's speech at Lib Dem conference off the news agenda yesterday, a sense of stability has been restored to Cabinet. Boris Johnson has told hacks in New York that he is not going anywhere – likening Cabinet harmony to 'a nest of singing birds'. The message from Downing Street, too, is one of quiet confidence that Johnson won't be departing the frontbench – at least, not this weekend. This suggests two things. Firstly, that May's Florence speech won't be as drastic as had first been thought. Secondly, Johnson is coming round to the idea of payments to Brussels continuing during a transition period.

Boris Johnson has come in for plenty of criticism since setting out his Brexit blueprint in a 4,000 word article in the Daily Telegraph. But the Sun says the Foreign Secretary has done the PM a favour in speaking up for ‘the 52 per cent who voted Leave and the many more won over since’. ‘Theresa May must listen’ up, the paper says - and she should also 'ignore the siren calls from Cabinet Remainers’ who want to reverse the referendum result. The attacks levelled at Boris are ‘designed solely to discredit him and trash the optimistic vision’ of Brexit he has set out. Instead of getting angry at Boris, the PM should remember the fact that ‘The EU has more to lose if talks collapse’.

The Cabinet remains divided on one of the most fundamental Brexit questions. Everyone in the Cabinet does accept that Britain is leaving not just the EU but the single market too. But there remains a split over whether Britain should be aiming for an EEA minus deal with the EU or a CETA plus one. This might sound techy but it is fundamental to Britain’s future. Free movement makes it a political non-starter for Britain to stay in the single market. However, several of the most senior members of the Cabinet, backed by the institutional Treasury, think that Britain should stay as closely aligned to the single market as possible. They want Britain to shadow the EU’s regulatory structures and transpose European Court of Justice judgements.

We are only six days away from Theresa May’s big Brexit speech in Florence. But it is far from certain what will be in it, as I say in The Sun today. The biggest domestic challenge for May, insiders say, is squaring Boris Johnson. I’m told that ‘there is quite a lot of nervousness about that’. ‘Boris has been the most hard-line’ of the Cabinet Brexiteers an insider tells me. One of those involved in the negotiations between the two camps predicts ‘it is going to be a tetchy week.’ Boris’s issue is money. He is opposed to paying a big exit payment to the EU and he’s told Number 10 that he wants that £350 million for the NHS.

With no majority and disagreement rife about what went wrong for the Conservatives in the snap election, next month's party conference presents Tories with the perfect opportunity to discuss new ideas and ponder the big challenges facing the party. However, don't expect members of government to partake in the soul-searching. Coffee House understands that everyone from ministers down to Parliamentary Private Secretaries have been encouraged to keep their heads down and 'think carefully' about their behaviour at the four-day event. 'It's been put in no uncertain terms, that in the time of a hung Parliament, the media will be looking for stories to fill the vacuum so think carefully about what you do,' explains one member of government keeping a low profile.

Next month, Theresa May is expected to launch her long-awaited audit into racial disparities in public services. We are being prepared for the worst. Unnamed Whitehall insiders say that they have been ‘shocked’ by the picture it reveals of racial discrimination in the UK. All this suggests the scene is being set for another bout of political self-flagellation regarding the subject of race in Britain, in which half-truths are peddled by lobbyists and swallowed wholesale by officialdom. Several studies have already shown   that some ethnic groups experience different outcomes in policing, health, employment and education. There are many causes behind these disparities but the evidence will be carefully selected to suit a predetermined agenda.

Government whips can breath a sigh of relief. On what turned out to be the second late night sitting in a row for MPs, Andrea Leadsom's motion to ensure that the government has a majority on public bill committees passed at 320 votes in favour to 301 against. This means that even though the government did not win a majority in the snap election, they will have a majority on key committees which scrutinise legislation. In the debate before the vote, opposition MPs accused the Conservatives of an undemocratic power grab – with Labour's shadow leader of the House, Valerie Vaz, likening Leadsom to a North Korean news reader sent out to say everything is fine.

The EU Withdrawal Bill is undoubtedly an important piece of legislation. But I suspect that the bickering over Henry VIII clauses and affirmative statutory instruments passes most voters by. This is why it’s imperative that Theresa May keeps reminding voters of what the point of Brexit is, of what it will enable this country to do. One of the many problems with the Tory general election campaign was that it turned Brexit into a process story. May talked endlessly about the need to strengthen her hand in the negotiations. But as Andrea Leadsom complained in the political Cabinet’s post-mortem of the election campaign, May never said what Brexit was actually for.