Tariffs

Thursday

William Moore

Trump shock, cousin marriage & would you steal from a restaurant?

From our UK edition

39 min listen

This week: Trump’s tariffs – madness or mastermind?‘Shock tactics’ is the headline of our cover article this week, as deputy editor Freddy Gray reflects on a week that has seen the US President upend the global economic order, with back and forth announcements on reciprocal and retaliatory tariffs. At the time of writing, a baseline 10% on imports stands – with higher tariffs remaining for China, Mexico and Canada. The initial announcement last week had led to the biggest global market decline since the start of the pandemic, and left countries scrambling to react, whether through negotiation or retaliation.

Charles Lipson

Trump’s ‘on-again, off-again’ presidency

To win elections in a two-party system, the victor needs to erect a big tent. He needs to persuade all kinds of voters in the general election, including many who disagree with each other (but disagree with the other party even more), to vote for him. Experienced politicians call it, “the politics of addition, not subtraction.” The rest of us call it “big tent politics.”  What can poke holes in that tent? What will allow the rain to come pouring in? Those questions loom over Republicans, looking for an umbrella amid tariff disagreement, a volatile market and whispers of a possible recession.  The skies were clear when the big issue was illegal immigration. The party base loved it and so did voters.

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The Spectator

What’s the biggest stock market crash ever?

From our UK edition

Crash comparison What’s the biggest stock market crash ever?  – There are different ways to measure a crash. The biggest percentage fall in the Dow Jones Index in a single day occurred on 19 October 1987 (or ‘Black Monday’) when the Dow fell by 22.6%.  – The biggest fall in percentage terms over a longer period was in the Nasdaq – covering tech shares – which fell by 80% between January 2000 and October 2002. – The biggest fall in terms of the amount of money wiped off the US market – at least until this week – was in February/March 2020, when the S&P500 lost 34% of its value over the course of a month, including losing $3.3 trillion of value in two days.

The Spectator

Portrait of the week: Trump’s tariffs, a theme park for Bedford and a big bill for Big Macs

From our UK edition

Home In response to President Donald Trump’s global tariffs, Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, said: ‘This is not just a short-term tactical exercise. It is the beginning of a new era.’ He wrote in the Sunday Telegraph: ‘We stand ready to use industrial policy to help shelter British business from the storm.’ The FTSE100 fell by 4.9 per cent in a day, its biggest such fall since 27 March 2020. The government published a 417-page list of US products upon which Britain could impose retaliatory tariffs after 1 May. Figures from the Office for National Statistics showed that, although in 2023 the UK imported £57.9 billion of goods from the US (10 per cent of all goods imports) and exported £60.4 billion’s worth (15.3 per cent of all goods exports), it exported £126.

Katy Balls

How Starmer plans to weather Trump’s storm

From our UK edition

Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, Keir Starmer has struggled to set the agenda. The latest attempt came with the Spring Statement, but events soon overtook that when the US President announced his mass tariffs, which could derail Rachel Reeves’s spending plans. It is not yet 100 days into Trump’s secondterm, and ministers have already had to adjust rapidly to the new normal. Even without the unpredictability of decisions from the White House, government communications have proved challenging. The long-standing No. 10 director of communications, Matthew Doyle, recently stepped down. At a recent away day, his successor James Lyons spoke on the importance of moving to digital platforms such as social media and podcasts as well as traditional outlets.

Wednesday

Freddy Gray

Trump shock: is there method behind the madness?

From our UK edition

A ‘black swan event’, as defined by the risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2007, is a surprise occurrence that has a major impact on the global financial system and is rationalised after the fact as something that ought to have been expected all along. The 9/11 terror attacks are one example, the Covid pandemic another – shocks that rocked the world and made us wonder if freedom works. Since Wednesday last week, however, the gods of the marketplace have been wrestling with a new and more mind-boggling creature: the ‘orange swan’, a cataclysmic Donald Trump-induced happening that is at once entirely predictable and baffling, an event that is rationalised post hoc as a shock when in fact everybody saw it coming a long way off.

Oscar Edmondson

What could a US-UK trade deal look like?

From our UK edition

13 min listen

Trump’s levies have kicked in today: including an astonishing 102 per cent tariff on China – after it missed the deadline to withdraw its retaliatory tariffs – and 20 per cent on the European Union. The combination of these explosive tariffs has sent markets sliding once again. This follows a slight recovery in the markets yesterday after suggestions by some in the Trump administration that they may be willing to negotiate the tariffs down. In the UK, the economic uncertainty has ‘turbocharged’ plans which have been whispered around Westminster for some time, including nationalising the British steel industry. Attention has also turned towards a trade deal with the US, and the complexion that might take in a post-tariff landscape and in the context of the EU reset.

Trump presidency
Spectator Editorial

The 👊🇺🇸🔥 presidency

Much has been said and written about the Trump administration’s leaked Signal discussion on bombing Houthis in Yemen, most of it forgettable. Virtually all attention has focused on dull questions of competence and whether any heads should roll for communicating sensitive US matters through a private company’s platform, then ineptly letting a reporter in on the chat. The debate is largely news-cycle fodder. The new administration will not succeed or fail based on what phone apps its members use. Yet the Signal debate has entirely overshadowed what should be a major discussion in its own right. Is the new administration quietly sleepwalking the country back into a costly, dangerous policy of Middle East military meddling?

Tuesday

Oscar Edmondson

What happened at the Liaison Committee?

From our UK edition

16 min listen

Parliament is about to go into recess for the Easter holiday and so – as is customary – Keir Starmer sat in front of the Liaison Committee this afternoon, where he was grilled on topics including tariffs, defence and welfare. This comes on the day when there has been a momentary reprieve in the markets, which experienced a modest bounce – most likely as a result of suggestions from Trump that he is willing to negotiate with China. Markets seem to have priced in that these tariffs could be negotiated down, but that is of course a big 'if'. The question remains for Keir Starmer: what more can he do to protect the UK against economic meltdown? And will he have to break his fiscal rules to do so? Oscar Edmondson speaks to Isabel Hardman and Michael Simmons.

Teresa Mull

Tariff haters don’t live in the Rust Belt

There is a vacant lot at the edge of downtown Philipsburg, Pennsylvania, my hometown. Three years ago, a handsome, sturdy brick factory building stood in that lot, albeit most of the windows were broken, as it had been abandoned for years. After it closed, the building became a favorite hangout for ne’er-do-wells, whose act of arson forced its recent demolition. For decades, though, the clothing factory employed thousands of people and made downtown hum, as workers crowded the restaurants and took care of errands on their lunchbreaks. They – along with the hundreds of people employed by a cigar plant on the outskirts of town – also bought houses and rented properties here and supported locally owned pharmacies, barbers, hardware stores, grocery stores, and the hospital.

Monday

Lucy Dunn

Is Trump the new Truss?

From our UK edition

15 min listen

The fallout from Trump’s tariffs continues. Last week, Donald Trump ended the free-trade era that has underpinned growth for decades (and potentially also heralded the end of globalisation). Markets around the world have taken a nosedive, prompting fears of a global recession. The only (brief) reprieve was when stock markets rallied because of a misunderstanding regarding comments made by Trump’s economic adviser. Once these had been clarified, the Nasdaq dipped once again. Republicans are starting to turn on Trump – including Elon Musk, who has been sending out some coded tweets. The strength of the reaction from the markets has drawn comparisons between Trump and Liz Truss, whose mini-Budget spooked the markets so comprehensively that she had to backtrack after just ten days.

Kate Andrews

Trump loves chaos. What happens when he loses control?

“Don’t be a PANICAN,” the President shared on his Truth Social account this morning, as the Dow was dropping 900 points. This is Donald Trump’s new word for his tariff critics, who he has grouped together as the “new party based on Weak and Stupid people!” There is another way, the President insists: “Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!” It’s another post in a long line of all-caps messages shared by the President over the weekend. “ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL!” was Friday’s update. “WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH,” was Saturday’s inspirational message.

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Travis Aaroe

Who did Bill Ackman think he was electing?

To take on America’s entire governing class and win, Donald Trump proved that he had an inhuman level of willfulness and sangfroid. Those are qualities that cut both ways, however, as the investor Bill Ackman is now discovering.  Wall Street has lost more than $5 trillion in value since the announcement of the new tariff regime last week, but Mr. Trump, speaking on Sunday on Air Force One, appeared deaf to all appeals. How big of a sell-off would the President be willing to endure, a member of the press pool asked. “I think your question is so stupid,” he replied. Many of Trump’s newfound admirers are panicking. Among them is Bill Ackman, manager of the hedge fund Pershing Square and a prominent Democrat defector in last year’s election.

Neal Pollack

There are other kinds of workers who want ‘dignity’

Since Liberation Day, my feed has been full of panicked, apocalyptic screeching, even more than usual. It hasn’t been useful. No, Janet, President Trump is not “trying to kill us all.” Instead, I’ve been seeking out intelligent, thoughtful analyses of our new Tariff Age, particularly from people who think that this is an actual good idea. There aren’t a ton of these people, but there are some. Pro-tariff voices that I’ve encountered include: journalist Batya Ungar-Sargon, who shocked the world when she came out as a “MAGA lefty” and is riding that identity toward a glorious future. Another is a Twitter account called “Insurrection Barbie,” which I take with an enormous salt lick.

Friday

John Steele Gordon

Trump is playing a high-stakes game of international poker

From our UK edition

On what he called “Liberation Day,” President Trump announced a new tariff schedule. While the markets had been up in anticipation, they are down sharply, with the Dow dropping 2,200 points, perhaps surprised by the extent of them. Basically, Trump has laid tariffs equal to about half what other countries charge on US exports, inviting them to lower theirs in exchange for reciprocity. What the final result will be is anyone’s guess, for the Trump tariffs are chips in a high-stakes game of international poker. They have already had an effect. Canada has promised retaliatory tariffs while Israel has dropped all tariffs on US goods. A tariff is a tax laid on goods passing through a port.

trump
trump
John Steele Gordon

Trump is playing a high-stakes game of international poker

On what he called “Liberation Day,” President Trump announced a new tariff schedule. While the markets had been up in anticipation, they are down sharply, with the Dow dropping 2,200 points, perhaps surprised by the extent of them. Basically, Trump has laid tariffs equal to about half what other countries charge on US exports, inviting them to lower theirs in exchange for reciprocity. What the final result will be is anyone’s guess, for the Trump tariffs are chips in a high-stakes game of international poker. They have already had an effect. Canada has promised retaliatory tariffs while Israel has dropped all tariffs on US goods. A tariff is a tax laid on goods passing through a port.

Thursday

Oscar Edmondson

Trump’s tariffs explained

From our UK edition

12 min listen

It's the day after America 'reclaimed it's destiny', or so Donald Trump says. The President announced a raft of 'reciprocal' new tariffs from the White House rose garden, including a 10% levy on the UK which – before it comes into effect on 5th April – the government hope to negotiate down.  Other countries have come off much worse. China, for example, will experience a 34 per cent ‘discounted reciprocal tariffs’, compared to the 67 per cent Trump claims China puts on US goods. The European Union will experience 20 per cent levies, compared to the 39 per cent Trump also says is put on US goods. ‘We’re a very kind people, we’re very kind,’ the President said of Americans. But ‘not so kind when you get ripped off’.

Roger Kimball

Give Trump’s tariffs a shot

So the big question is: will it work? Will Trump’s protectionist policies, announced with some fanfare at a Rose Garden event at the White House yesterday, increase American prosperity? Or will they harm the economy?  Opinion on that matter is sharply divided. In one corner we have the free traders. They are wringing their hands and warning about higher prices, disruption of international trade and a trade war no one can win.  In the other corner are – what to call them? Most are not “anti-free traders” or “economic protectionists” (though some are).  Let’s call them “fair traders.” They like the idea of free trade – in theory. What they don’t like is the ethic of “free trade for thee but not for me.

tariffs grandeur
Daniel McCarthy

The grandeur of Trump’s tariffs

The first thing revealed by the high and wide-ranging new tariffs President Trump announced on “Liberation Day” is just how limited other recent American presidents have been in their thinking. Their ambition was to get elected and re-elected, then retire comfortably into a tranquil post-presidency. They would finish their days lending their names to charities and writing their memoirs (or rather, commissioning ghostwriters to fulfill their publishing contracts).   The idea of destroying and remaking the global economic order never crossed their minds. But Trump is thinking bigger. He doesn’t want to go to his grave as just another has-been ex-president.

Wednesday

Freddy Gray

Will Trump’s tariffs unravel the neoliberal global order?

From our UK edition

33 min listen

Freddy is joined by James Fishback – writer, investor and chief executive of investment firm Azoria – on ‘Liberation Day’, when Donald Trump is set to announce a raft of new tariffs (at 9 p.m. UK time). They discuss the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the market, whether this marks the upending of the neoliberal economic world order, or if Donald Trump is just a tough negotiator.