Tariffs

Josh Hawley talks Trump’s first 100 days: pro-life ‘needs to be a priority’

Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri has been one of Donald Trump’s fiercest allies on Capitol Hill. But since his easy re-election last November, he’s also been someone within the Republican party who demanded public commitments from Trump’s nominees on several issues of importance to him – areas of concern that include the influence of big tech, the encroaching role of China and a promise on the part of nominees with little or no record on the abortion issue to support pro-life policies. Senator Hawley spoke to me on the 100th day of Trump’s second presidency about what he’s seeing on tariffs, foreign policy and China.

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trade

Was ‘Liberation Day’ just shock therapy?

With Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing that a trade deal between the US and India could be imminent, it once again raises the possibility that Trump’s intended outcome is not the imposition of high, permanent tariffs – but that the measures announced on “Liberation Day” were really just shock therapy aimed at the ultimate liberalization of trade. It is significant that India was one of the countries which were originally put down for some of the higher tariffs: 26 percent was going to be the blanket rate on imports from India. South Korea, another country with which trade deal negotiations seem to be in an advanced state, was going to be subject to 25 percent tariffs.

How Liberation Day rocked Switzerland

When President Donald Trump gathered the world’s media to the White House Rose Garden to unveil America’s “Liberation Day,” Swiss viewers were cautious but optimistic.  Administration insiders had assured us that we had nothing to fear. During Trump’s first term in office, Switzerland had been the port in the storm of European opinion. As outsiders to the European Union, we were able to forge our own relationship with the American superpower. Our small alpine nation, with its population of 9 million, rose from the eighth largest foreign direct investor in the United States to the sixth. Swiss companies, like Nestle, Stadler and Novartis, ramped up their American operations, generating profits and jobs for both countries.

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globalization

Who cares about globalization?

Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” was the culmination of a 30-year insurgency against the global economic system. It was the most fiscally significant event since lockdown. By the fiat of the President, tens of trillions of dollars were on the move; stock markets trembled; and the US-China relationship – the material basis of globalization – seemed at risk of permanently freezing over.  Yet just under a week later, tariffs were to be displaced in the news cycle by the case of a deported "Maryland man," Kilmar Abrego Garcia, and his possible gang affiliations. Only one of these events would prompt five Democratic lawmakers to drop everything for an urgent trip abroad.

How America can develop its own rare earth elements industry… safely

Give a country rare earth elements and it’ll have fighter jets, missiles and warships for a day. Force a country to extract and process its own rare earth elements and it’ll be safe from relying on countries run by unstable dictators forever.  Such is President Trump’s sensible line of thinking as he keeps up America's trade war with China. As China imposed export licensing restrictions on seven rare earth elements, or REEs, last week, Trump signed an Executive Order “launching an investigation into the national security risks posed by US reliance on imported processed critical minerals and their derivative products.” The administration is now pursuing a deal to procure REEs from Ukraine.

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How much hope did Trump offer Meloni?

In early March Donald Trump said Elon Musk was doing “an amazing job.” Last week he said Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan was doing an “excellent job.” On Thursday it was the turn of Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni during her meeting at the White House. Trump declared that she was “doing a fantastic job.”  What Trump found so fantastic was never specified, but he tossed a variety of bouquets in Meloni’s direction. Not least was his vow that “there will be a trade deal, 100 percent” with the European Union. It was qualified, however, by Trump’s claim that he’s in no rush to strike a deal with Ursula “the West no longer exists as we knew it no longer exists” von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission.

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China bans Boeing in targeted trade war shot

“If it ain’t Boeing, I ain’t going,” goes the old adage, championing the supposed superiority of the company’s planes on safety issues. If you are traveling in China in future that probably means that you won’t be going very far at all. The US aviation giant is emerging as one of the biggest losers of Donald Trump’s trade war. China has not merely applied punitive tariffs on the company’s planes; it has banned imports altogether. Even existing orders of planes appear to be affected by the ban. What’s more, the ban applies to Boeing itself rather than to general imports of US aircraft – it is personal. Boeing, already reeling from the crash of two 737 MAXs in Indonesia in 2018 and Egypt in 2019, lost $11.

Is Trump killing the American dream for mom-and-pops? 

He’s survived an assassination, bounced back from bankruptcy and – so far, at least – avoided all attempts to jail him. But Donald Trump’s most audacious feat is yet before him: to persuade Americans to pay more for their goods as their beloved businesses struggle – and then be grateful to him at the polls.  While tariffs threaten to raise prices across the board for consumers, small businesses with lower margins than their larger competitors are struggling. “Whether or not you support tariffs, or whether or not you think certain offices should be cut, I think overall, any kind of economic turbulence is uniquely burdensome for small businesses,” says Molly Day, the National Small Business Association’s vice president of public affairs.

What the left calls ‘chaos,’ the rest of us call ‘winning’

They never learn, the libs. Back in 2016, they provided hours of entertainment assuring themselves that Donald Trump would “never be president” (“take it to the bank,” said Nancy Pelosi, who in another galaxy, long, long ago was speaker of the House). Patriotic citizens, eager to instruct the public about the dialectic of hubris and nemesis, stitched together many joyful compilations of Hollywood celebrities, ditto-head news readers and Democratic politicians intoning that party line.  Then, after the impossible mutated into the inevitable and Trump was elected, the narrative shifted to “the walls are closing in on Donald Trump.” If it wasn’t Russia, Russia, Russia it was Stormy Daniels, putatively shady business deals or putative efforts at insurrection.

First came the dire wolf – the wooly mammoth is next

With all the insane news this week surrounding President Trump’s tariff and trade drama, only one non-political story was significant enough to break through the news cycle: a Texas-based company called Colossal Biosciences has bred three dire wolves and is currently keeping them in a secret 2,000-acre natural habitat somewhere in the United States. That’s right: dire wolves. An extinct species. A beast so mythical that we only really know of it from Game of Thrones. In fact, as we learned in an interview with a comic book magazine, Game of Thrones creator George R.R. Martin has even visited the dire wolf reserve. There is a non-AI-generated photo of him online cradling a dire wolf pup and weeping tears of joy.  Immediately, skepticism blew up online.

Did Douglas Murray break Joe Rogan?

Douglas Murray and the end of ‘historians’ ‘It’s pretty hard to listen to somebody who says, “I don’t know what I’m talking about but now I’m gonna talk”’ Who gets to call themselves an expert? That’s the big question featured in a bruising episode of The Joe Rogan Experience, in which Rogan hosts The Spectator’s Douglas Murray and the libertarian comedian Dave Smith. Murray accuses Rogan of opening “the door to quite a lot of people who’ve now got a big platform, who’ve been throwing out counter-historical stuff of a very dangerous kind.” The nearly three-hour-long program begins with Murray asking if Rogan feels that his show has been “tilted one way” in its guest selection: Dave Smith v.

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Who knew about Trump’s flip-flop?

As a piece of financial punditry, it could hardly be bettered. “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY”, screamed a post on the platform Truth Social on Wednesday morning. Hours later, the S&P 500 surged by 9 percent – its biggest percentage rise since 2008. The only trouble is that the tipster handing out this invaluable advice was the same man whose announcement caused the surge in the stock market: Donald J. Trump. Unsurprisingly, it has raised questions about who knew that Trump was about to do an about-turn and delay tariffs for 90 days – and whether any of them used the information to their personal advantage. Insider trading has long been treated as a serious issue among corporations.

The art of the pivot

“THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” President Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social account yesterday morning. With trillions of dollars wiped off stock market value since his tariff announcements last week, this appeared to be an attempt to manufacture a silver lining. It also happened to be a literal statement. Within a few hours, the stock market was surging as Trump announced a 90-day pause on the higher “reciprocal” tariffs for most countries, while hiking the tariff on Chinese goods to 125 percent. Was this careless? Intentional? Insider trading? According to the White House, it had been the strategy all along. The President told reporters it had been “the biggest day in financial history.” Speaking to his aides beforehand, Trump noted the market was rallying.

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again

Trump’s ‘on-again, off-again’ presidency

To win elections in a two-party system, the victor needs to erect a big tent. He needs to persuade all kinds of voters in the general election, including many who disagree with each other (but disagree with the other party even more), to vote for him. Experienced politicians call it, “the politics of addition, not subtraction.” The rest of us call it “big tent politics.”  What can poke holes in that tent? What will allow the rain to come pouring in? Those questions loom over Republicans, looking for an umbrella amid tariff disagreement, a volatile market and whispers of a possible recession.  The skies were clear when the big issue was illegal immigration. The party base loved it and so did voters.

The 👊🇺🇸🔥 presidency

Much has been said and written about the Trump administration’s leaked Signal discussion on bombing Houthis in Yemen, most of it forgettable. Virtually all attention has focused on dull questions of competence and whether any heads should roll for communicating sensitive US matters through a private company’s platform, then ineptly letting a reporter in on the chat. The debate is largely news-cycle fodder. The new administration will not succeed or fail based on what phone apps its members use. Yet the Signal debate has entirely overshadowed what should be a major discussion in its own right. Is the new administration quietly sleepwalking the country back into a costly, dangerous policy of Middle East military meddling?

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Tariff haters don’t live in the Rust Belt

There is a vacant lot at the edge of downtown Philipsburg, Pennsylvania, my hometown. Three years ago, a handsome, sturdy brick factory building stood in that lot, albeit most of the windows were broken, as it had been abandoned for years. After it closed, the building became a favorite hangout for ne’er-do-wells, whose act of arson forced its recent demolition. For decades, though, the clothing factory employed thousands of people and made downtown hum, as workers crowded the restaurants and took care of errands on their lunchbreaks. They – along with the hundreds of people employed by a cigar plant on the outskirts of town – also bought houses and rented properties here and supported locally owned pharmacies, barbers, hardware stores, grocery stores, and the hospital.

Trump loves chaos. What happens when he loses control?

“Don’t be a PANICAN,” the President shared on his Truth Social account this morning, as the Dow was dropping 900 points. This is Donald Trump’s new word for his tariff critics, who he has grouped together as the “new party based on Weak and Stupid people!” There is another way, the President insists: “Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!” It’s another post in a long line of all-caps messages shared by the President over the weekend. “ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL!” was Friday’s update. “WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH,” was Saturday’s inspirational message.

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Who did Bill Ackman think he was electing?

To take on America’s entire governing class and win, Donald Trump proved that he had an inhuman level of willfulness and sangfroid. Those are qualities that cut both ways, however, as the investor Bill Ackman is now discovering.  Wall Street has lost more than $5 trillion in value since the announcement of the new tariff regime last week, but Mr. Trump, speaking on Sunday on Air Force One, appeared deaf to all appeals. How big of a sell-off would the President be willing to endure, a member of the press pool asked. “I think your question is so stupid,” he replied. Many of Trump’s newfound admirers are panicking. Among them is Bill Ackman, manager of the hedge fund Pershing Square and a prominent Democrat defector in last year’s election.

There are other kinds of workers who want ‘dignity’

Since Liberation Day, my feed has been full of panicked, apocalyptic screeching, even more than usual. It hasn’t been useful. No, Janet, President Trump is not “trying to kill us all.” Instead, I’ve been seeking out intelligent, thoughtful analyses of our new Tariff Age, particularly from people who think that this is an actual good idea. There aren’t a ton of these people, but there are some. Pro-tariff voices that I’ve encountered include: journalist Batya Ungar-Sargon, who shocked the world when she came out as a “MAGA lefty” and is riding that identity toward a glorious future. Another is a Twitter account called “Insurrection Barbie,” which I take with an enormous salt lick.

Trump is playing a high-stakes game of international poker

On what he called “Liberation Day,” President Trump announced a new tariff schedule. While the markets had been up in anticipation, they are down sharply, with the Dow dropping 2,200 points, perhaps surprised by the extent of them. Basically, Trump has laid tariffs equal to about half what other countries charge on US exports, inviting them to lower theirs in exchange for reciprocity. What the final result will be is anyone’s guess, for the Trump tariffs are chips in a high-stakes game of international poker. They have already had an effect. Canada has promised retaliatory tariffs while Israel has dropped all tariffs on US goods. A tariff is a tax laid on goods passing through a port.

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