Scotland

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson

Salmond’s dangerous corporatism exposed

How would an independent Scotland have fared during the crash? Given that the liabilities for RBS alone represent 2,500 per cent of Scotland's economic output, it's a difficult question for Alex Salmond. He replies that the banks in Scotland would have been better-regulated by wise, old him, so the problems would not have arisen. But Faisal Islam at Channel Four has unearthed a letter that rather explodes this theory, written from the First Minister to Fred the Shred egging him on with the calamitous acquisition of ABN Amro. This, as CoffeeHousers will know, is the acquisition which was so hubristic that it went on to sink the whole banking group.

Alex Massie

Everything Changes and Yet Everything Remains the Same

Today's commentary on the independence referendum kerfuffle is out-sourced to the Daily Mash: As Scottish first minister Alex Salmond set out his timetable for an independence referendum, he was dealt a devastating blow after research showed separation from the UK would make absolutely no difference whatsoever. Professor Henry Brubaker, of the Institute for Studies, said: "It will still be damp, windy and miles from everywhere." "The Scottish people will continue to shop, drink, complain, work for the council, eat beige food and hate each other because of football, religion or some bastard hybrid of the two." [...] "They will also retain their baffling sense of entitlement and the government will still interfere constantly in people's lives.

James Forsyth

Will Miliband use his lifeline in PMQs?

At the weekend, Tories were anticipating giving Ed Miliband an almighty kicking at PMQs. Lord Glasman’s description of Labour’s economic record as ‘all crap’ had given them a killer line. As one member of the Cameron circle joked to me, ‘we’ve never had more material to work with.’    But Ed Miliband now has a get out of jail free card. If he asks six questions about the Union and the referendum, it will be impossible for Cameron to have a pop at him without looking distinctly unstatesmanlike. On Scotland, the two leaders need each other. The Unionist side cannot win without the Labour party and the Labour party will find it very hard to win general elections without Scotland.

James Forsyth

The battle lines that are being drawn over Scotland

In the wrangling between Westminster and Holyrood over the referendum there are two big issues at stake, the date of the vote and —more importantly — the number of options on the ballot paper. Salmond, as he made clear on the Today Programme this morning, wants to have the referendum in autumn 2014 and have three options — the status quo, independence and ‘devo-max’ — on offer.   The reason Salmond wants ‘devo-max’ to be there is that he’s not confident he can get independence through this time round.

Tuesday

Hamish Macdonell

Salmond’s running rings around Cameron

Edinburgh If anyone had any doubts why Alex Salmond picked up almost every UK political award going last year, then they should study how he has dealt with the referendum issue this week. At every turn he has out-manoeuvred his UK counterparts — and this was perfectly demonstrated tonight. Earlier today, in the Commons, Michael Moore, the Scottish Secretary, had delivered the UK government’s riposte to the SNP’s referendum plans. Mr Moore was considered, clever and smart. In fact, it was a first cogent and effective strike back by the UK government on this issue for more than a year. But what will lead tomorrow’s papers in Scotland? It won’t be Mr Moore’s statement.

Peter Hoskin

The coalition finds its balance over Scotland

As much as I dislike the phrase ‘the third way’, it sums up what the coalition has done today. Given the choice between hobbling or accommodating Alex Salmond and his referendum on Scottish independence, it has decided to do neither and both. In the words of the Scottish Secretary Michael Moore, speaking in the House just now, the referendum will be ‘made in Scotland, by the people of Scotland’ — just so long as Westminster okays it first. Maybe that'll make more sense if we look at what, specifically, was announced today. Moore's main point was that any referendum held by the Scottish government, without the approval of the UK government, would be ‘unconstitutional’.

Fraser Nelson

The battle for Britain | 10 January 2012

So, Alex Salmond has named his date for the independence referendum: August 2014, a few weeks after the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn. David Cameron wanted it earlier, and may yet refuse to grant Salmond this date — No10 hasn't yet responded. Cameron was forcing the issue on the grounds that he wanted to end uncertainty — Salmond is now offering certainty, at least in terms of timing. But he hasn't said whether he wants a two- or three-question referendum. This is crucial, because Salmond is likely to lose an independence referendum and he knows it. So his game plan will be to have a third option, a consolation prize, so he doesn't walk away from this empty handed.

Alex Massie

Alex Salmond Claims his Date

Since I was watching the House of Commons just now, I needed twitter to tell me that it seems as though Alex Salmond, ever the tweaker, has announced he wants to hold his referendum in the autumn of 2014. Hurrah. That's fine. No need, in my view, for Westminster to object to this. On the contrary all parties should welcome it. All that Westminster needs to do is make sure the referendum billl can survive any legal challenge. Then we can get on with the game. The most importat thing is that the principle of the thing is now agreed. The detail can be sorted out in due course. What larks, eh?

Alex Massie

Michael Moore’s Quietly Sensible Consultation

Michael Moore's statement to the House of Commons on the question of how a referendum on Scotland's constitutional future may be held was clear, composed, sensible and modest. In other words it was everything that the last few days have not been. The Prime Minister in particular - as bemoaned here, here and here - has not distinguished himself in recent times. Perhaps it is fairer (it is certainly kinder) to presume this was just as innocent a cock-up as any Prime Ministerial cock-up can be; regardless is was a desperate piece of floundering that made Mr Cameron look something of a chump.

Jonathan Jones

Can Scotland make it on its own?

What would an independent Scotland's public finances look like? ‘Good, actually,’ says the SNP as they present their ongoing case for independence. They like to claim that, discounting the rest of the UK, Scotland was in surplus for ‘four out of the last five years’ — it's Westminster, not Holyrood, that can't manage the public's money.  Which would be a powerful argument were it actually true. You see, the SNP are talking about the ‘current budget balance’, which excludes the £6.4 billion a year that Scotland spends on capital. When you include that spending — according to the Scottish government's own figures — there has been a deficit for every one of the last five years.

Monday

Alex Massie

David Cameron has given Alex Salmond an opportunity to play the statesman

Shockingly, it is possible some of you did not see my appearance on BBC News this afternoon. Thanks to the wonders of Youtube and the baffling enthusiasm some people have for clipping and sharing these things, you can catch up with it now. As is always the case, I forgot half the things I wanted to say. Jon Sopel asked if it was really plausible for David Cameron to "do nothing". Well, of course it is. Indeed when you cannot offer anything useful it is best to offer nothing at all. The time - as a few of us argued back then - for Conservatives to back a referendum came and went in the last parliament. The Tories could have (nay, should have) supported Alex Salmond's referendum bill then.

James Forsyth

Osborne the Unionist

There’s much chatter in Westminster today about the fact that George Osborne is chairing the Cabinet committee on Scotland. Osborne is, of course, the Conservatives’ chief electoral strategist as well as the Chancellor of Exchequer. This has led to some suggestions that he wouldn’t be too upset by a referendum defeat that would make it an awful lot easier for the Tories to win a majority at Westminster. This is unfair: Osborne is a Unionist. What those around Osborne have long been interested in is the option that the coalition seems to be ruling out: fiscal autonomy. The circle around Osborne have long believed that it is only when Scottish politics is about how to raise money as well as how to spend it that the Tories will revive north of the border.

Alex Massie

Cameron’s Caledonian Gamble: Unwise and Unnecessary

So. it looks as though David Cameron is following the Spectator's advice not mine. What a nincompoop! But if the reports are correct then Cameron is playing us for fools. That is, there's nothing wrong with suggesting a referendum on Scottish independence be held sooner rather than later; adding conditions to it is a different matter. It matters little, really, whether a referendum is binding or advisory; a Yes to Independence vote would be impossible to ignore, politically and practically speaking, even if the referendum were only advisory. So, to this extent, Cameron's suggestion that a vote can be binding if held within 18 months but only advisory if held after that point is a futile distinction without a meaningful difference.

Peter Hoskin

Cameron’s balancing act over Scotland

The Cabinet is meeting about 5 miles away from Downing Street today, at the Olympic Park in Stratford. But its collective mind will be on a patch of land another 270 miles further on still. Yep, Scotland and Scottish independence are the matters at hand today. According to the Beeb, David Cameron and his ministers will discuss their ideas for the referendum, its content and its timing. It's thought that they may allow a referendum that's binding on the UK government – but only so long as it takes place in the next eighteen months, and offers a simple ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ vote on independence.

Saturday

Alex Massie

Ambulance Crews: The Enemy Within

I know no-one is allowed to say that public sector workers are "cosseted". And of course no-one can ever say anything nasty about anyone who works in the emergency services. Salt of the earth types, heroically serving the public good each and every one of them. We scarcely deserve these Little Jesuses, don't you know?  That's the official line. The truth is a little different. Some of the time anyway. Some people would rather let people die than interrupt their tea-break. Yes they would. Really. Look: Union members have rejected the latest deal to resolve a dispute over rest breaks for ambulance staff in Scotland.

Thursday

Alex Massie

How Not to Save the Union

There is a good deal of good sense in the magazine's main leader this week. By which I mean of course that a good deal of it is unconvincing and some of it dangerously so. That is, if David Cameron listens to the Spectator he risks assisting the very forces - Alex Salmond and the SNP - the magazine's editors (and the Prime Minister himself) wish to defeat. Of course Alex Salmond is beatable and of course support for UN-member independence is a minority enthusiasm. This is one reason why a referendum seems to scare Scots less than it does politicians and pundits based in London. (Most of those pundits and politicians, incidentally, seem only to care about Scotland's constitutional question; the actual governance of the country is, at best, most often an afterthought.

Monday

Fraser Nelson

Would you bet against Alex Salmond?

Alex Salmond has a soft spot for horse racing, and I've just seen some odds that could make the First Minister a very rich man: William Hill is offering 9/1 on Scotland being independent by the end of the decade. The SNP is traditionally bold in its predictions: ‘Free by '93’ being one of the more memorable. Salmond himself predicted that the Union of 1707 would not live to see its 300th birthday. But if he holds a referendum by 2015 then Hill's say a 'no' result is the 2/5 favourite. And 'yes' is 7/4. Money would be refunded if Salmond bottled out of holding a referendum within the next four years. So how seriously should we take the bookies? David Cameron may take the fight to Salmond, framing the argument in a different way: do you want to stay in the union?

Thursday

Alex Massie

Mr Pooter Says Farewell to the Civil Service

STOP PRESS: LONDON MANDARIN RECOGNISES SNP WON ELECTION, INTEND TO CALL REFERENDUM. FUTURE OF UNITED KINGDOM UNSURE. ASTONISHING SCENES. Lord knows what the Telegraph paid Sir Gus O'Donnell, heid neep at the civil service, for the valedictory piece published in today's paper but if the news summary of the thing is at all accurate they've been had. The Telegraph's newshounds do their best to dress it up but, really, there's a limit to what even skilled practitioners can do with such unpromising material. They report: Britain's most senior civil servant Sir Gus O'Donnell has publicly questioned whether the United Kingdom will still exist in a few years' time.

Wednesday

Alex Massie

Salmond’s Advantage Over Labour

A reader asks: What do you think about Johann Lamont winning the Scottish Labour leadership contest? Well, jings, far be it for me to intrude into these matters but it bears noticing that Lamont, doughty as she may be, relied upon the tame votes of Trades Union affiliates to secure her victory. Ken McIntosh - remember him, Mr Miliband? - actually won the most votes from individual party members. All Scottish Labour types now admit the party's "arrogant" belief Scotland would always be there for Labour; all claim to have learned from the chastening experience of this May's election. All say they must be "about" more than just Nat-bashing. All of which is all very well and good but I'll believe the Scottish Labour party has changed when it actually changes its attitudes.

Monday

Alex Massie

Is Scotland a Nordic Country?

This is a question that meets the classic definition of John Rentoul's famous-to-them-that-ken series of Questions To Which The Answer Is No. That is, the people asking the question think the answer is Yes when in fact it is No. This question, like many of the SNP's other witticisms, is the brainchild of Angus Robertson, the MP for Moray who might be thought Alex Salmond's answer to Karl Rove. Like Rove, Angus sometimes gets carried away and this suggestion that Scotland is some long-lost Nordic appendage is one of those occasions. Not that he's alone in wishing Scotland could be redefined in this fashion. Lesley Riddoch had a piece in the Guardian recently making just this argument.