Recession

The stock market, traditionally a leading indicator, entered correction territory last week. But does that indicate that a recession is coming? Well, it’s an old saying on Wall Street that the market has predicted ten of the last three recessions. Markets hate uncertainty, and no one knows how President Trump’s efforts to use American tariffs to force our trading partners to lower theirs will turn out. But foreign trade is increasingly important to all countries, so it’s likely that, after some political Sturm und Drang, deals will be struck and international trade will continue the strongly upward path it has been on since the end of World War Two. By definition, a recession is two consecutive quarters of contraction.

The color red splashed across every news channel yesterday, as Donald Trump’s seemingly blasé attitude towards a possible recession wiped $4 trillion off the United States’s stock market. All day and all night, the airwaves were dominated by talk and speculation over the future of the US economy, as the President pushes forward (and pulls back) certain parts of his tariff agenda.  It’s the sheer uncertainty that has investors spooked, leading to one of the worst days on Wall Street in years. The details of this “period of transition” for the economy that the President alluded to are so vague, and so unclear, that you can make of the comments almost whatever you want.

If you’re the sort who rarely checks your 401K and other investment accounts, you may be blissfully unaware of what a dismal year (plus) its been for the stock market. Many prominent media personalities, particularly ones on CNBC, promised us that Biden would be a boon to the stock market because Trump was too erratic. But while the market started hot in 2021, it's mostly been ice cold ever since, with a few fake rallies thrown in to tease us. How bad has the Biden era been for stocks? Consider some numbers I crunched prior to the market opening on December 12.

One of Liz Truss’s suggestions on the leadership campaign trail was that her economic agenda could avoid recession. But one of the (many) gambles attached to these comments was what had already happened to the economy before she entered No. 10. This morning we got some more insight about how the economy fared over the summer, as the Office for National Statistics revealed that GDP grew by 0.2 per cent in July: a small uptick, following a 0.6 per cent contraction in June. The small, but still positive, growth was mostly a result of a boost to services industries, which fell by 0.5 per cent in June, with the largest contributing sectors including computer programming, consultancy and telecommunications.

Cockburn was on one of his regular jaunts through LinkedIn this week, on the lookout for more gainful employment than the Speccie currently offers him. During his perusal, one word kept catching his eye on the profiles of other users: “Rescinded.” Prospective employees are deciding to denote when a company had made them a job offer — and then changed their mind after a change in corporate hiring plans. The cryptocurrency wallet company Coinbase appears to be one of the biggest offenders. Ashutosh, a software engineer, posted the following: After considering several factors, I had chosen to join Coinbase over pursuing a PhD.

The fight for a $15 minimum wage started in 2012 with a bang. Hundreds of Walmart, port, and fast food workers walked off their jobs in protest of low wages. An organization called Fight for $15 formed in 2014 following two national strikes by laborers. Seattle became the first city to require a $15 minimum wage that same year. The White House issued an executive order that required new federal contracts to include a $10.10 minimum wage because legislation had stalled in Congress. The stalled federal push led to more state and local action. California and New York put together slow-rising $15 minimum wage laws in 2016 and 2017. Eight other states, mostly in New England, followed with plans to reach a $15 minimum wage by 2026 at the latest.

There is no shortage of reasons to feel gloomy about the American economy right now. First, there’s inflation. In 2021, the Biden administration claimed that the cost of a summer barbecue had declined by 16 cents from the year before. It probably now wishes it hadn’t made that claim. This summer, the cost of that barbecue is up not 16 cents but 17 percent. Hot dogs are up 37 percent over a year ago. This is the highest inflation in forty years, with the consumer price index up 8.6 percent from a year ago. Some necessities, such as gasoline and food, have risen even more sharply, with gas having gone from $2.18 a gallon when Biden was inaugurated to $5.

Cardi B, the well-known rapper and mixologist, has finally acknowledged the financial reality facing many Americans today. Last week, she tweeted, “When y’all think they going to announce that we going into a recession?” Cockburn notes that such astute words perfectly capture how the Biden administration has raised costs for everyone, from the working class to those who can afford to live in this economy, also known as millionaires. Thankfully, the administration responded to her concerns. Janet Yellen, the secretary of the treasury, replied, “Don’t look to me to announce it. I’m not going to announce it. I don’t think we’re going to have a recession. I expect growth to slow down. We have a very strong economy.

Inflation is about far more than rising prices. In this excerpt adapted from Inflation: What It Is, Why It’s Bad — and How to Fix It, the book’s authors explain how the debasement of money ultimately corrupts society. The scenario is fairly standard: central banks devalue money; prices shoot up. Governments look for ways to tamp down inflation by keeping people from spending. They also respond with price controls, capital controls, higher taxes. Governments grow larger and often impose more constraints. People lose their freedom, and worse.