Nigel farage

Back in February, Benefits Street star 'White Dee' promised to give David Cameron a ‘run for his money’. In her Spectator diary, she described how ‘Ladbrokes has made me 50-1 to be the next MP for Birmingham Ladywood, and until I read that patronising nonsense I wasn’t going to stand. Now, I think I will. As an independent, mind. How far will I get? Let’s just see.’ Dee hadn’t yet made it clear which party she was thinking of joining. She’s speaking at the Tory conference today, although she has been a strident critic of their policies. Previously, she has indicated that she used to vote LibDem, until they joined forces with the Tories, after which she switched to Labour.

When Mark Reckless stands for election as a UKIP candidate for Rochester and Strood, The Spectator will be against him. But we were against him when he stood as a Tory in 2005. Indeed, in that general election The Spectator backed the Conservatives (as you'd expect) but made a specific exception for Reckless, running for what was then Medway. Peter Oborne, then political editor, went so far as to draft a campaign statement for Bob Marshall-Andrews, the Labour MP whom Reckless was trying to depose. Marshall-Andrews, Oborne argued, was the true Conservative candidate. Peter Oborne’s leaflet was distributed very widely during the campaign and Reckless was defeated by a fairly narrow margin (213 votes).

Not long after John Bickley had appealed to Ukip delegates to help him win in Heywood and Middleton, Nigel Farage conceded that it wasn't going to happen. In a briefing with journalists after his speech (the Ukip leader is very generous with his time for the London-based media establishment, far more so than any other leading politician), he said: 'I think it's too big a mountain to climb in that short a space of time, and I think the Labour party is saying that because they've got a very divided local party, they're not happy with the candidate, they can't get anyone out to canvass, and when they put the coaches on to go from the hall in Manchester to the office in Heywood, only 23 people got on one... they were expecting hundreds.

Ukip's party conference is underway in Doncaster. The party is hoping for an event that runs more smoothly than last year, where Nigel Farage sacked Godfrey Bloom for hitting a journalist and calling women 'sluts'. It certainly has more in its favour this time around, with Tory defector Douglas Carswell to address the conference ahead of what looks like a victory in the Clacton by-election. But there are also rumours that two more Conservative MPs are about to defect. Adam Holloway's name was winging round the lobby today, but he says he won't be going anywhere because he is terrified of the prospect of a Labour government. He said: 'I'd much rather be in coalition with Ukip than the Lib Dems but I'm not going to defect.

By the time a politician stands up to give a speech, it has been briefed out, pre-butted, rebutted, shredded in print and spat out on TV. Politics has become a boring conveyor belt, meticulously organised and frankly dull. Focus-grouped and polled to death. The only unexpected drama comes when things get dirty — from verbal fisticuffs to the dark arts. But now even that is under threat. ‘I honestly believe that we need a new politics,’ said Brownite gruppenführer Tom Watson recently. ‘Service, love and compassion,’ dreams the man whose plotting brought down Blair. Reformed boot boy Watson embodies the startling emaciation of Westminster.

Where is this burning point of principle that drove Douglas Carswell into the arms of Ukip? I’ve read lots about his defection, and I’m still none the wiser. We’re told that he was talking to Farage for almost a year, which would have overlapped with the time he told me that the Tories need to unite behind Cameron because he was the only one promising an in-out referendum. What has changed? Carswell says that Cameron is not serious about Europe. The Prime Minister has become the only leader in the continent to promise an in-out referendum. I’m not sure how much more serious one can be. Should he lay out, now, what he wants in a renegotiation? Of course not – it would be rendered rapidly out of date.

If, like me, you missed Andrew Neil's BBC programme exploring What the Hell Happens to the United Kingdom if Scotland Votes for Independence Next Month you might be interested to know that it remains available on the BBC iPlayer here. Prudently, dear reader, I liked it. It's a film best viewed as a companion piece to James Forsyth's Spectator cover story published last month. A call to arms to England - and Westminster in particular - to ponder the consequences and implications of Scottish independence. There is little sign that much thought has been devoted to these issues.

So Nigel, where's your flood? You know, the one involving Bulgarians and Romanians that you predicted last year. That deluge? You got it wrong, didn't you? Ner-ner-di-ner-ner. It must be very tempting for people who don't like Nigel Farage to spend today chuckling, scrolling through the ONS website and waving their mouse with a satisfied flourish at the finding that the number of people from these countries who are employed in the UK has risen by 13,000 from the same period last year, when transitional controls were still in place. The Ukip leader had predicted 5,000 a week, but his forecasts look as good as David Silvester's attempts at dabbling in meteorology. It has given Farage's critics another opportunity to accuse him of 'scaremongering'.

That Nigel Farage was planning to stand in South Thanet was one of the worst kept secrets in politics. But Ukip turns out to be the worst secret keeper in politics, too, with confirmation of the party leader's intentions dribbling out on a Friday afternoon at the end of a rather newsy week. The meticulously well-sourced Jim Pickard at the FT reports local Ukip activists confirming that Farage is on their shortlist of candidates to run under the party's banner. But the party's spokeswoman has been stonewalling him, presumably because the Friday afternoon of an unusually newsy August week isn't quite the right time for exciting Ukip constituency fireworks.

So Boris Johnson is standing for parliament next year, triggering speculation about what would happen if David Cameron lost the election. Could we have Ed Miliband as prime minister, followed by Boris Johnson? Jon Stewart would have a field decade. Boris is easily the most popular Conservative politician around, both inside and outside the party, and is the only one to have genuine appeal with the public. People go up to him to shake his hand in the street, rather than just vomit everywhere, as is the case with most other Tories. Both he and Nigel Farage are jovial figures whose cheery, bumbling persona enables us to forgive any private failings.

Ukip are holding an action day in Thurrock today. Their tails are up at the moment because a recent poll of marginal seats by Lord Ashcroft put them in first in Thurrock on 36%. The party also leads in Thanet South, according to this round of polling. Ukip very kindly offered me the chance to interview its candidate in Thurrock, Tim Aker MEP (pictured above). I declined due to diary commitments; but I did submit some written questions which I thought might prove relevant if Aker was indeed elected to parliament. I haven’t heard anything back from Ukip, so I reproduce them here for readers of Coffee House to consider: 1).

Nigel Farage has promoted a slew of women to senior roles in his reshuffle of the Ukip front bench. Diane James, who came close to winning the Eastleigh by-election, becomes the party's home affairs and justice spokesperson. Louise Bours, a newly elected MEP, takes on the health brief. Her job will be to rebut Labour claims that Ukip wants to privatise the NHS. I understand that she'll be emphasising Ukip's commitment to a universal national health service free at the point of use. Jane Collins, who stood for Ukip in the Barnsley and Rotherman by-elections, becomes the spokesperson on employment. While Jill Seymour takes on transport and Margot Parker small business. There's also an emphasis on blue collar voices in the reshuffle.

During Owen Paterson's vocal conversation with David Cameron in defence of his record as Environment Minister after learning he was being sacked, Paterson reportedly said: 'this will be a kick in the teeth to 12 million countryside voters... you are making a big mistake'. There is already mounting evidence to suggest Paterson could be right. Judging by the two standing ovations that Paterson went on to receive last Friday at the Game Fair at Blenheim Palace (at the mere mention of his name), Charles Moore commented that 'you could almost see the disaffected Tory voters fleeing to Ukip across the tent'.

The other darling of the CLA Game Fair — alongside former Environment Secretary Owen Paterson — was Charlie Brooks (aka Mr Rebekah Wade), who appears to be back on the country scene in a big way. ‘I’m a big fan of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage’, the former litigant tells me. ‘I’ve always been a convert to be honest, which tells you what I make of politicians these days’. Curiously, it turns out Farage’s pub landlord was a juror in the Brooks’ recent trial, a fact that only came to light when the Ukip leader met Brooks for the first time on Friday. ‘You talked all sorts of nonsense, but you seem to have got away with it,’ joked one well wisher to Brooks over lunch.

Talk radio station LBC are coy about the prospect of a Michael Gove phone-in show, mooted by Mr S yesterday. When asked if such a show is on the cards, a spokesman said: 'We enjoy Michael Gove appearing on LBC, as we do the many other politicians who also enjoy getting the opportunity to talk to LBC’s listeners.' That’s diplomatic. But, when it comes to election season LBC will be bound by Ofcom rules on impartiality to balance out coverage. We already have Call Clegg and Phone Farage. Someone call for the Minister for Broadcasting...