Nigel farage

In a sense it could be the political version of the law of unintended consequences. There is Nigel Farage insisting that he is a British unionist, that he opposes Scottish nationalism and does not want to see Scottish independence. Yet success for Farage and Ukip in the Euro elections this week could possibly do more to hasten the break-up of the UK than almost anything else. That is the implication of a startling new poll published in the Scotsman this morning. ICM found that almost one in five Scots were more likely to vote Yes in the independence referendum if Ukip does well this week. A total of three in five of those asked said Ukip success would make no difference to their choice in the independence referendum and 14 per cent said they did not know.

The polls are all over the place this morning. Ukip is either on course for a thumping victory, going to be edged into second by Labour or has fallen into third place depending on which is your preferred pollster. But all three Westminster parties are operating on the assumption that Ukip will win, as I say in the Mail on Sunday. Certainly, Labour are getting their excuses in early. Those close to Miliband are quick to point out that Tony Blair never won a European Election and that the party machine will be concentrating more on Thursday’s council contests than the European Elections as having a strong council base will matter more in 2015 than who has the most MPs.

Ed Miliband visited Airbus this morning, where he gave a clear headline message on immigration: never again will Labour abandon people who are concerned about immigration.  Alas, he became less clear the more he spoke. At various points in an interview with The World at One earlier this afternoon, Miliband described immigration as a “class issue”; a concern of those people who are not getting a fair chance or those who are being undercut by cheap foreign labour exploited by predatory bosses. This fits neatly into his pre-packaged narrative about the evils of the modern market economy.

David Axelrod has parachuted into London to give Ed Miliband a ‘makeover’. Miliband needs all the foundation and blusher he can get; but a trip to the battleground in Newark might have been a more productive starting point for Axelrod: Labour’s greatest problem is its strategy, or lack of one. Newark has huge significance for the Tories – a chance to recover from their likely drubbing at the local and European elections, an opportunity to put Ukip to the sword and a way to build momentum towards next year’s general election. The party is well organised on the ground. A strong base of activists and councillors is operating out of five local campaign offices.

Ukip may be sailing towards first place in the European elections, but Nigel Farage unwittingly revealed today how the party is still a long way from becoming a mature political movement. During his interview on the Sunday Politics, Farage didn't seem to know what was in Ukip's local election manifesto — in particular whether the party was promising to make any spending cuts. This is a transcript of what he said: Andrew Neil: You have promised these tax cuts, how much will they cost? Nigel Farage: No idea. I’m not here to talk about, I’ve read the local election manifesto and it doesn't make those promises. AN: It does NF: We do talk about local services, we do talk about the need to keep council tax down but we don't talk about income tax. Absolutely not.

The European election creeps closer and the smart money has switched from Labour to Ukip topping the poll. A Labour win would be spectacular in its own right as it would probably require a doubling of their 2009 vote share. I confess there was an intake of breath in the ComRes office when our ITV News poll results were in showing an 11-point Ukip lead over Labour. But the naysayers were confounded by a second poll released on the same day showing a nine-point Ukip lead. The ramifications of a party with no Westminster MPs topping a popular ballot within a year of a General Election puts us into new territory.

How the Tory party will react if, as excepted, Ukip pushes the party into third place in the European elections is one of the most discussed topics in UK politics. But overlooked in all this is how Labour will react if Farage’s party beats them on May 22nd. If Ukip come top in the European Elections, as the polls indicate they have a very good chance of doing, Labour will be thrown into a panic. No opposition has ever triumphed at a general election having not won the previous European Elections. A failure in the European Elections would be a big blow to the idea that Ed Miliband is going to be the next Prime Minister. Already, influential members of the shadow Cabinet are grumbling about how the leadership hasn’t taken these elections seriously enough.

Now that Newark is a no-go, Nigel Farage will be turning his thoughts to where he will stand as an MP. He said this week that returning its first MP will be a huge breakthrough for Ukip, so choosing a seat that he can win is vital. After declining to stand in the 15 by-elections that Ukip have contested since 2010, it looks as if Farage will wait until 2015 to run for Parliament. Coffee House understands that, ideally, Farage would like the seat to fit three criteria. Firstly, it needs to be a marginal seat. Secondly, he wants to have some local connection — he feels his lack of any roots in Buckingham caused him problems when he stood there in 2010. And thirdly, there would be no incumbent MP, lessening the challenge among the local community.

On location for The Sunday Times in the exciting by-election town of Newark-upon-Trent, I asked a nice local woman about her voting intentions. What way do you think you’ll be voting, I asked. This is what she said. “Um, yes, the poll. Well, I will turn right out of my house and walk down the road and then there’s usually a what-do-you-call-it, poll thing, in St Leonard’s Church, on the corner. I think that’s right..” I just thought I’d share that response with you. It is interesting that the leader of UKIP.

Nigel Farage told me on Monday how closely he was watching the situation in Newark. He introduced the subject by saying, "there’s one other thing that could change everything". But Farage’s comments to me yesterday make me think that he’s unlikely to stand in Newark. He said that he’d ‘been looking at candidates’ and mused on how just one MP would make such a difference. He pointed to how the Canadian Reform party had won a seat in a by-election in 1989 and then go on to become the largest opposition party in at the next election. What struck me about this anecdote was how taken Farage was by the fact that the Reform party had picked "a completely unknown geography mistress, who lived in the town, who had lots of relations there".